000
FXUS61 KOKX 071815
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
115 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass east of the region today. High pressure
moves across the area on Monday. Low pressure strengthens and
passes west of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. The low will
then move northeast and weaken Wednesday into Thursday. Weak
high pressure then returns thereafter through Friday. Another
low pressure system may impact the area on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A 996 mb surface low about 40 mi south and east of Montauk at
17Z passes farther east of the region today as an upper trough
axis swings through. On the backside of this low, a wide area of
scattered shower activity has developed and will continue to pivot
east through the Tri-State into late afternoon. With a bit colder
air, the light rain has begun to mix with or change to wet snow
along the coast, while remaining all snow across the interior.
Any additional light accumulations are likely confined to the
interior though, where temperatures are near or just below the
freezing mark. Maintained the Winter Weather Advisory here until
5 pm for the potential of up to an another inch or two of snow.
Elsewhere, a slushy coating could cause some brief slick
conditions. Forecast remains on track.
Drier air advecting in should allow for predominantly dry conditions
after 00Z. Skies clear out entirely overnight as low temperatures
range from the low 20s across the interior to around freezing in the
urban metro. Any lingering standing water could freeze and lead to
patchy black ice and slick spots late.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather on Mon as high pres builds towards the area. The
high ridges over the cwa Mon ngt, allowing for light winds but
cold temps. The NBM may be too mild in this scenario and my need
to be undercut in future fcsts.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Points*
* A significant storm system will impact the region Tuesday into
Wednesday.
* A period of heavy rain, and river and coastal flooding are
increasingly likely with this system. See hydrology section below.
* Strong winds with the potential for 45 to 60 mph gusts, highest
along the coast, Tuesday night into early Wednesday are also
possible.
There were no major changes to the forecast. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance continues to be in agreement of the overall
evolution of this system. An upper level low and associated surface
low will lift out of the Southern Plains early Tuesday and track
west of the area as the surface low strengthens. The low will pull
moisture up from the Gulf and track over the Great Lakes (model
PWATs around 1.25" would be close to or just over the max PWAT
value for the 01/10 OKX sounding per SPC`s Sounding Climatology
Page). An all rain event is likely given this track, with the
exception of snow or a rain/snow mix at the onset for portions of
the Lower Hudson Valley. Given the moisture fetch, enhanced forcing
from an upper jet and frontal approach, the ingredients are in place
for a period of heavy rainfall. The NBM probabilities of 3 inches
over 24 hours are now widespread 60 to 80 percent, with 90 percent
across portions of northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. See the
hydrology section below.
The other hazard with this system will be the winds. Latest guidance
still shows 65-70 kts at 950mb, with only a weak inversion in place.
The thinking remains that the area could see widespread 30 to 40 mph
winds with gusts 45 to 60 mph, with the higher end of these values
across the coast. The latest NBM max wind gust probabilities of
seeing 60 mph are as high as 60 percent along the Long Island south
coast.
Weak high pressure looks to build in Friday. There is potential for
another low pressure system to impact the area on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in through Monday.
IFR/MVFR eventually improves to VFR this evening. A wintry mix
east of city ends by around 20z.
NW winds 10-15kt through Monday morning, backing more WNW-W and
diminishing in the afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Flight category improvement times might be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR early becoming MVFR by noon, then IFR in the
afternoon and night. Rain during the afternoon and becoming
heavy at night. E-ESE winds 15-20kt with gusts 25-30kt in the
afternoon. SE winds increasing Tuesday night to 25-35kt, gusting
40-50kt, highest winds along the coast. LLWS at night with SE-S
winds at 2kft of 70-80kt.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with rain early in the the morning.
Rain ending by noon with conditions improving. S-SW wind
20-25kt gusting 35-45kt. Gusts decrease afternoon into the
night.
Thursday: VFR. WSW winds 10-15kt with gusts near 20kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and rain by nighttime.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As low pres pulls away today, winds gradually decrease from W
to E. A SCA has been issued for the wrn waters today. Extended
the Gale Warning on the eastern waters until 21Z today, when a
Small Craft Advisory will replace it. Seas on the ocean will
remain at SCA lvls thru Mon, then fall blw Mon ngt. Elsewhere,
winds and seas blw advy criteria Sun ngt thru Mon ngt.
Strong low pressure will track west and impact the area Tuesday
through Wednesday. Gale force winds look likely on all waters, as
well as the potential for storm force gusts for a period Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. In addition, waves on the ocean waters
likely reach 15 to 20 ft. Continued mention of gales and storm
force gusts in the HWO.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Monday.
Thereafter, significant hydrologic impacts are likely. A period
of heavy rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely
result in flooding across the region. Any total runoff would be
enhanced inland with melted snowfall, especially across the
interior. The Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlook
remains largely unchanged. There is a moderate risk from northeast
NJ up through the Lower Hudson Valley and he rest of the forecast
region is in a slight risk. River levels across northeastern NJ and
the Lower Hudson Valley, where the heaviest rainfall is expected to
fall, are expected to rise. Currently, a widespread 2 to 3 inches is
forecast, with 3 to 3.5 possible across northeastern NJ into
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
The potential for a significant coastal flood event with the
Wed AM high tide remains. Potential for SE gale to storm force
winds Tuesday Night into early Wednesday, bringing potential for
widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding. Early
guidance from Steven`s NYHOPS ensemble is producing surge values
of 3 to 4 ft. This will also coincide with increasing
astronomical tides with a new moon on Jan 11. Along the
oceanfront, potential for 15-20 ft surf causing widespread dune
erosion and scattered overwashes. Localized dune
inundation/breaches possible where dunes have been compromised
by earlier storm events. More details on this event early next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
CTZ005>008.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
NJZ002-004-103.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-340-
345-350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ335-
338-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...