000
FXUS61 KOKX 090301
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1001 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the area overnight will move offshore
Tuesday morning. Intensifying low pressure will track from the
Central States to the Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night.
This will send a strong frontal system across the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. High pressure briefly builds in Wednesday
night through Thursday night. Another strong low pressure system
could bring heavy rain and high winds to the area late Friday
through Saturday. Weak high pressure returns Sunday into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The brief period of tranquil weather continues overnight. High
pressure over the area has lead to mostly clear skies, with calm
to very light winds now in place. The leading edge of some high
clouds is beginning to push in, with more clouds towards day
break. This should not impact temperatures too much. Lows will
drop into to the lower 20s across the interior and middle to
upper 20s for most other locations. The NYC metro should only
fall into the lower 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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**Major storm system to impact the area late Tuesday through
early Wednesday with heavy rainfall, potential flooding, and
strong to damaging winds**
No changes have been made to the Flood Watch.
A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 6pm Tuesday through
6am Wednesday for Staten Island, Brooklyn, Queens, Long Island,
coastal Connecticut along the I-95 corridor, and northern New
London County. The high wind watch is no longer in effect.
A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 6pm Tuesday through 6am
Wednesday for Manhattan, Bronx, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley,
northern Fairfield, northern New Haven, and northern Middlesex
counties.
Tuesday will start out dry with increasing clouds as high
pressure moves offshore. The storm system will continue
intensifying as it begins to move towards the midwest and
southeast. The associated upper trough will amplify and begin
going negatively tilted allowing for anomalous feed of
subtropical moisture along the eastern seaboard. The intense
parent low will track towards the Great Lakes through the day
which sends a strong frontal system towards the region. The
frontal system will then sweep across Tuesday night and should
be offshore by day break Wednesday.
Models have continued to speed up the timing of both the
rainfall and strongest winds over the last 24 hours. Rain should
begin developing from west to east by afternoon becoming
widespread by mid to late afternoon. Initially the rain will be
light to moderate. The rain will become moderate late afternoon
into the evening with locally heavy rainfall. The precip may
briefly mix with some wet snow well inland at the onset, but
warmer air should change any snow over to rain quickly. No
accumulation expected. A more widespread heavy rainfall is
expected Tuesday night with the peak of the rainfall likely
occurring between 00 and 09z. PWATs peak around 1.2-1.3 inches
which is near the top of the observed values on the SPC Sounding
Climatology for OKX for January 7. The latest 12z HREF shows
fairly high probabilities of seeing hourly rainfall rates of
around 0.50 per hour. Rates could be briefly locally higher at
times, especially if the CAMs projections of a squall
line/narrow cold frontal rain band move through along or ahead
of the main windshift/cold front. If this band materializes,
rainfall rates could briefly touch an inch an hour, but the line
will be moving quickly from west to east so that rainfall rate
should not last for an actual hour. An isolated rumble of
thunder cannot be ruled out. A general consensus of the modeling
indicates the rain should begin tapering off west of the city
midnight to 3am, in the NYC metro 2am to 4am, and east of the
city 3am to 6am.
The forecast average rainfall amounts for the event range from
2 to around 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. This
rainfall may lead to flooding with some of the main stem rivers
reaching moderate to locally major flood stages. Snow melt,
runoff, and higher than normal soil moisture will only add to
the threat of flooding.
There is a chance for some flash flooding, but widespread urban
flooding appears more likely given the average hourly rates of
about 0.50 inches per hour.
SE winds will increase through the day Tuesday with the
strongest winds expected Tuesday night. The low level jet that
is modeled is concerning with around 95-100 kt between about 4-5
kft. These winds are well above an inversion, but winds around
1-2ft are quite strong around 50-70kt when the jet peaks
overhead. A model consensus has the peak of the low level jet
and winds over the area between 03-09z from west to east. The
highest winds are still expected near the coast with gusts
around 60 mph (in the High Wind Warning). Gusts 45- 55 mph are
expected in the wind advisory area away from the immediate
coast. Sustained winds could reach 25-35 mph at times Tuesday
night. The peak of the winds may occur in just a few hours
coinciding with the passage of the low level jet, 10pm-1am north
and west of the city, 11pm-2am in the NYC metro, 12am-4am Long
Island and Southern CT. Once the front and winds shift more to
the S and SW, winds should weaken, which is expected to occur
before day break Wednesday. It will then remain breezy on
Wednesday with gusts 25-35 mph possible.
See Tides/Coastal flooding section for coastal/shoreline
impacts.
The main axis of moisture and lift will be well offshore on
Wednesday. The intense low will lift towards northeast New
England and the Maritimes by late in the day with the upper low
moving over New England. Instability clouds may remain with the
cold pocket aloft. There could be an isolated shower, but for
now have gone with a mainly dry forecast in the afternoon. Highs
Wednesday range from the upper 40s inland to the lower 50s near
the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another southern stream trough will be moving onshore of the
Pacific northwest midweek and tracks quickly to the east coast
by Friday night. Before the arrival of another strong low late
Friday a weak upper ridge and weak surface high will be across
portions of the northeast and Mid Atlantic regions.
The upper trough and surface low will be tracking well inland
Friday night into Saturday with an occluded low tracking through
the area Saturday. With a low level jet of 60-70kt developing
Friday night and the low level low over the region, along with
precipitable water increasing to 1 to 1.25 inches, another round
of moderate to heavy rainfall is becoming more likely Friday
night into Saturday morning. Also, with the strong low level and
upper dynamics, and elevated CAPE up to 300 J/kg, isolated
thunder is becoming more likely during the same timeframe as the
heavy rainfall. The is the potential for another flooding event
as WPC have placed all the area in at least a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall, with an inland portion in a slight risk.
Finally, with the strong winds another high wind event is also
becoming more likely.
The low tracks northward through Eastern Canada late Saturday
through Sunday with a strong westerly flow developing across
the region as the precipitation comes to an end. Some wrap
around moisture may move into the northwest portions Saturday
night into Sunday with snow showers, or flurries possible.
However, with the westerly flow drying will be likely and
precipitation may not make it too far toward the coast.
There is a chance of yet another low tracking toward the area
for next Monday.
The NBM looked reasonable for all parameters Wednesday night
through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure shifts offshore overnight ahead of an incoming
storm system that approaches on Tuesday, and moves across Tuesday
night.
VFR conditions prevail thru 12-13Z Tue. MVFR cigs develop late
Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, becoming IFR in
the late afternoon, with a steady rain developing into the
evening push. Moderate to heavy rain likely prevails after 0z
Wed for the 36 hr terminals.
Light and vrb winds overnight, increasing after 12Z Tue out of
the SE. Gusts up to 40 kt possible toward 00Z Wed. LLWS develops
towards the Tue eve push.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of category changes during the day Tuesday and Tuesday
evening may be off by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 0Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: IFR, with possible LIFR. Rain, locally heavy at
times. ESE/SE winds 15-20kt gusts 25-30kt in the afternoon. SE
winds, becoming S late and increasing to 25-35kt, gusting
40-50kt, highest winds along the coast. LLWS at night with SE-S
winds at 2 kft of 55-75kt.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with rain early in the the morning. Rain
ending by noon with conditions improving. S-SW wind 20-25kt gusting
30-40kt. Gusts gradually decrease afternoon into the night.
Thursday: VFR. WSW winds 10-15kt with gusts near 20kt.
Friday: VFR early, becoming MVFR or lower with rain. Increasing SE
winds late.
Saturday: MVFR or lower with rain. SE winds 15-25kt G30-35 kt early
in the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Conditions will remain below SCA levels overnight into Tuesday
morning. Winds will start to ramp up in the afternoon ahead of
an approaching storm system. The system will bring a fairly
quick increase in winds to the waters late Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The strongest winds are likely to occur overnight into
early Wednesday morning. The Storm Watch has been converted to
a Storm Warning. Have also started the Warning at 4pm for the
ocean and NY Harbor as winds start to increase into gales and
then storm force by evening. The warning is in effect elsewhere
from 6pm Tue to 6am Wed. Dangerous seas are expected on the
ocean, generally 15-20 ft Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
Waves on the LI Sound look to reach 5- 8ft, highest east of the
Mouth of the CT Ricer. Winds weaken Wednesday morning, but gales
are possible into the afternoon on the ocean, eastern LI Bays,
and eastern LI Sound, with SCA conditions elsewhere.
On-going gales on the ocean waters diminish to SCA levels
Wednesday night, meanwhile SCA conditions will remain on the
non-ocean waters Wednesday night, falling below by Thursday
morning. On the ocean SCA conditions remain into Friday. The sub
advisory conditions will be shortlived as a strong low pressure
system will be affecting the waters late Friday into Saturday,
Gales will be developing on all the waters Friday night with the
potential for storm force gusts on the ocean waters late Friday
night into Saturday morning. SCA and gale conditions will then
continue Saturday night through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday morning.
A major storm system will bring a total of 2 to around 3 inches
of rain with locally higher amounts Tuesday afternoon into
early Wednesday. The bulk of the heaviest rain will occur
Tuesday night. Widespread urban flooding is possible as runoff
from snowmelt and saturated grounds add to the flooding
concerns. There is also a chance for flash flooding given the
antecedent conditions, but one factor that may inhibit flash
flooding is hourly rainfall rates on average around 0.50 inches.
River flooding is a bigger concern across NE NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley, and interior Southern CT. The runoff from snowmelt,
higher than normal stream flows will combine with the heavy
rainfall to raise several rivers and streams into moderate
flooding. Localized major flooding is possible and current
projections take the Saddle River at Lodi into major flooding
early Wednesday morning. Ramapo River at Mahwah is forecast to
reach moderate flooding Wednesday morning. The Yantic River may
also near minor flooding, but a reasonable worst case scenario
is for moderate flooding if higher rainfall amounts occur. Many
other quick responding rivers and stream will likely reach
bankfull and could exceed moderate flooding levels.
Hydrologic impacts are possible again Friday night and Saturday
with more moderate to heavy rainfall. The exact magnitude and
extent of the issues are uncertain this far out.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Significant ocean dunefront damage expected Wednesday...
Widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding with Wed AM
high tide...
SE storm force expected Tuesday Night into early Wednesday, with
a windshift to west southwest gale likely just before the time
of high tide for most areas. This windshift will likely limit
potential for locally major coastal flooding to just the Great
South Bay of LI. Elsewhere, widespread moderate flooding likely
for southern bays of NYC/LI and eastern bays of LI, and SE CT.
Elsewhere generally minor flooding.
Minor coastal flooding possible for the southern bays of W LI,
and along W LI Sound Tuesday evening as E/SE increase towards
gale force.
Along the oceanfront, potential for 15-20 ft surf causing
widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes Wed AM.
Localized dune inundation/breaches possible where dunes have
been compromised by earlier storm events. 10 to 15 ft breaking
surf expected with Wed PM high tide, and with lower water
levels, expect dune impacts to be lower magnitude and less
widespread.
Coastal flood impacts are possible around the times of high tide
Friday night and Saturday with another deep low tracking west of the
area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
CTZ005>007.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
CTZ008>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday
for CTZ009-010.
Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM to noon EST Wednesday for
CTZ011-012.
NY...Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
for NYZ067>071.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ067>073.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday
for NYZ071-078-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ072-074-075.
Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday
for NYZ079>081-179.
Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ178.
NJ...Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
Storm Warning from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ338-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...