000
FXUS61 KOKX 092345
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
645 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Deepening low pressure over the Upper Midwest tracks into the
eastern Great Lakes tonight, sending a strong frontal system
across the area. The low pressure system slowly moves across
Southeast Canada Wednesday into Wednesday night. Low pressure
slowly moves within Southeastern Canada Thursday and Thursday
night. Another strong low pressure system will likely bring
heavy rain and high winds to the area Friday night and Saturday.
Arctic high pressure builds toward the region Saturday night
into Sunday. Another low may affect the region Monday and
Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH HIGH WINDS AND FLOODING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- High wind warning remains in effect for all coastal areas
including NYC, Long Island, Connecticut, Southern Westchester, and
Hudson NJ.
- Wind advisory remains in effect for inland areas.
- Storm warning for all forecast waters.
- Flood watch remains in effect for the entire region.
Forecast still on track with little change in the forecast.
Strong low pressure will approach the Great Lakes this evening,
with a secondary low pressure developing along the Appalachians.
An associated warm front approaches the region from the south
and lifts north across the area this evening, followed by a
strong cold front late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Rainfall amounts with this storm are expected to bring a widespread
2-4 inches. The main flooding threat remains across inland areas on
Wednesday after the bulk of rain ends due to forecast of elevated
rivers and streams above respective flood stages. The NYC and Long
Island part of the flood watch only goes until Noon on Wednesday but
for the rest of the region goes until 6PM Wednesday evening.
For details with flooding, see hydrology section.
Coastal flooding is expected for tonight and Wednesday mornings high
tides. The highest of the total water levels is expected to be
Wednesday morning. Coastal flood warnings, advisories and statements
are in effect.
For details with coastal flooding, see tides/coastal flooding
section.
No changes to the wind headlines. High wind warning and wind
advisory remain in effect for the entire region. The main concern
with the winds will be a low level jet maximum of near 100 kt that
develops this evening at a height of around 4-8 kft. Model sounding
BUFKIT profiles do not depict a strong inversion, as the thermal
profiles appear to be close to isothermal. Winds just 1-2kft above
the surface are shown to reach 50-60 kt according to multiple model
BUFKIT soundings across the coastal areas and with the heavy rain
and aforementioned thermal profiles, much of this should get mixed
down to the surface through downward momentum transport. The
timeframe for this generally between 02Z Wednesday and 10Z
Wednesday.
Also, increasing omega and an increasing southerly flow throughout
the troposphere will increase the PWATS to well above 90th
percentile climatology values overnight. Models still conveying PWAT
values near 1.4 inches maximum overnight into the coastal parts of
the region. Expecting a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall
overnight. With some elevated instability across eastern parts of
the region, can nor rule out a few isolated rumble of thunder. This
seems to line up with the CAMs, which depict a consolidating squall
line that seems to get more organized as it makes it way farther
east within the region overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The storm system lifts northeast of the region on Wednesday into
Wednesday night with the cold front pushing east of the region.
An upper level trough will remain over the region on Wednesday,
which may result in some additional rain showers from time to time
on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the upper trough lifts north
with drier conditions expected. Pressure gradient will remain
tight on Wednesday and will begin to relax Wednesday night.
Gusty westerly flow on Wednesday will be below advisory
thresholds but a localized isolated gust or two to near 45 to 50
mph cannot be ruled out. Most gusts are expected on Wednesday
to be in the range of near 30 to 40 mph. Gusts will continue to
diminish Wednesday night.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the middle 40s to lower 50s, with
highs Thursday in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another strong storm likely impacts the region late Friday into
Saturday with another round of moderate to heavy rainfall, and
strong, to potentially damaging winds, along with a coastal flooding
threat.
Another southern stream trough will be moving onshore of the Pacific
northwest midweek and track across the country, reaching toward the
Great Lakes Region late in the week. With some of the global
guidance the upper trough is becoming more negatively tilted during
Friday, keeping the surface low a little farther to the west. Timing
of the heaviest rainfall and highest winds remains Friday night into
Saturday as a low level jet of 50-70kts moves through the region.
Also, an occluded low will be moving over the region late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Strong lift, and some instability,
along with elevated CAPE up to 500 J/kg will allow for a chance of
thunderstorms. Precipitable waters also increases late Friday night,
up to 1.35 inches, and a period of moderate to heavy rainfall
remains possible. The is the potential for another flooding event as
WPC has placed most of the area in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall. Finally, with the strong winds another high wind event is
also becoming more likely. While there are a few days until the
onset of this storm impacts are becoming more likely.
Strong cold advection Saturday, behind a cold front, will be the
leading edge of an Arctic airmass that will be over the region
Sunday into Monday, with temperatures falling to near or just below
seasonal normals.
After a brief dry period another southern stream system may impact
the region Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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***Major Storm System to Impact Terminals Through Tonight***
Deepening low pressure over the Midwest will track up into the
eastern Great Lakes tonight, sending a strong frontal system across
the area. This will be a high impact event with strong winds and
heavy rains.
Ceilings will gradually lower to IFR through early this evening as
rainfall and winds increase across the terminals. Brief LIFR is
possible. Confidence on fog development remains low.
SE winds will ramp up through the first half of the night, reaching
25-30 G45-50kt, highest at the coastal terminals. These high winds
will take place until the cold frontal passage, which will be from
west to east from approximately 09Z to 12Z. There could be a brief
lull in the winds as the front moves through. Post-frontal WSW winds
on Wednesday 15-22G30-35kt, with possibly a few higher gusts,
especially for the afternoon.
An isolated thunderstorms is possible overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments may be needed for changing flight categories.
A few gusts above 50kt will be possible from 03Z to 08Z. Highest
potential for higher gusts is at KJFK.
Isolated thunderstorm possible overnight.
OUTLOOK FOR 0Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: VFR. WSW winds 15-20G30kt, subsiding to 10-15G20kt
as winds gradually decrease later at night.
Thursday: VFR. WSW winds 10-15kt with gusts near 20kt.
Friday: VFR early, becoming MVFR or lower with rain. Increasing SE
winds late.
Friday Night: MVFR or lower. SE winds 15-25kt G30-40kt.
Saturday: MVFR or lower with rain. SE winds 20-30kt G30-40 kt,
becoming W 20-25kt G30-35kt.
Sunday...VFR. W 20-25kt G30-35kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds on the area waters will quickly ramp up early this
evening to gales, then to storm force gusts for tonight. Ocean
seas build to 14 to 20 ft tonight into early Wednesday.
Gales are likely Wednesday into Wednesday night, eventually
subsiding to SCA level wind gusts late Wednesday night. Ocean
seas will remain elevated well above SCA thresholds Wednesday
through Wednesday night.
Marginal SCA wind gusts remain possible on the non-ocean waters
Thursday as a strong westerly flow diminishes, and during Thursday
evening gusts fall below advisory levels. Meanwhile, the ocean
waters will have on-going SCA conditions Thursday with winds and
seas diminishing west to east during Thursday night. An increasing
southeast flow ahead of the next strong low will allow for gale
conditions to develop Friday night across the forecast waters. There
is a chance of storm force gusts on the ocean waters Saturday into
Saturday night as gale condition continue on the non-ocean waters.
Gales are likely behind the low Sunday, with conditions gradually
improving Sunday night as high pressure builds toward the waters
from the southwest.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Flood watch remains in effect for the entire forecast region from
6PM tonight to 6PM Wednesday for NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and
Southern CT. Flood watch remains in effect for NYC and Long Island
6PM tonight until 12PM Wednesday.
WPC has moderate risk for much of the area for Northeast NJ,
Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT with NYC and Long Island in
a slight risk for excessive rain for this afternoon through
tonight.
A major storm system will bring a total of 2 to 3.5 inches of
rain with locally higher amounts this afternoon into early
Wednesday. The bulk of the heaviest rain will occur tonight.
Some GFS ensemble members indicating possible 4+ inches of
rainfall across some parts of Southern Connecticut.
There will be potential for widespread urban and poor drainage
flooding as well as river and stream flooding. The river and
stream flooding would potentially linger through the day
Wednesday and potentially into Thursday.
Hourly rainfall rates will generally remain between a half to three
quarters of an inch. An isolated area of 1 inch per hour of rainfall
rate is possible but will be quite brief in duration.
Some rivers in NJ are forecast to reach moderate to major flooding
levels.
Hydrologic impacts remain possible Friday night into Saturday, as
the Weather Prediction Center has much of the area in a slight risk
for excessive rainfall, with another round of moderate to heavy rain
possible. One to two inches, with locally higher amounts remains
possible. However, the exact magnitude and extent of the flooding
issues are uncertain this far out.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Significant ocean dunefront damage expected Wednesday.
Widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding with Wed AM high
tide. Localized major coastal flooding will be possible,
especially within the South Shore Bays of Long Island.
NY HOPS Steven Institute surge models actually have went back up
compared to 24 hours ago in terms of the total water level
forecasts.
SE storm force expected tonight into early Wednesday, with a
windshift to west southwest gale likely just before the time of
high tide for most areas. This windshift will likely limit
potential for locally major coastal flooding to just the Great
South Bay of LI. Elsewhere, widespread moderate flooding likely
for southern bays of NYC/LI and eastern bays of LI, and SE CT.
Elsewhere generally minor flooding.
Minor coastal flooding possible for the southern bays of W LI,
and along W LI Sound this evening as E/SE increase towards gale
force.
Along the oceanfront, potential for 15-20 ft surf causing
widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes Wed AM.
Localized dune inundation/breaches possible where dunes have
been compromised by earlier storm events. 10 to 15 ft breaking
surf expected with Wed PM high tide, and with lower water
levels, expect dune impacts to be lower magnitude and less
widespread.
Coastal flood impacts are possible around the times of high
tide Friday night and Saturday with another deep low tracking
west of the area.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>007.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ008>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for CTZ009-010.
Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM to noon EST Wednesday for
CTZ011-012.
NY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for NYZ067>071.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ067>070.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for NYZ071-078-
177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ072-074-075.
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NYZ072>075-078>081-
176>179.
Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ079>081-
179.
Coastal Flood Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ178.
NJ...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ002-004-103>108.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ006.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...