000
FXUS61 KOKX 101222
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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The low pressure system slowly moves across Southeast Canada today into tonight and eventually weakens. Low pressure slowly moves within Southeastern Canada Thursday and Thursday night while continuing to weaken. Another strong low pressure system will likely bring heavy rain and high winds to the area Friday night and Saturday. Arctic high pressure builds toward the region Saturday night into Sunday. Another low may affect the region Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Slight adjustments were made to the forecast database to better match with observed trends. Some rain showers are already developing and moving into the region from the west but are pretty light with low reflectivities on Doppler radar. Low pressure moves northeast of the region with central pressure still near or just below 980mb. Associated cold front moves across this morning with more westerly flow developing behind it. With pressure rises moving into place, would expect a very gusty day with increasing boundary layer depth. Taking into account both NAM and GFS BUFKIT forecast soundings, taking midway between the mean mixed layer winds and top of the boundary layer, getting many locations getting to around 40 kt for wind gusts this afternoon. Therefore, gusts up to 45 to 50 mph are expected and with saturated grounds, trees may be more easily downed by these wind gusts. This is why the wind advisory was issued. There may be somewhat of a lull in the winds this morning before more gusty winds develop this afternoon. The peak gusts are expected mid to late this afternoon. The wind advisory is in effect for the entire area, until 8pm this evening. Otherwise, there may be a few rain showers from time to time with passing vort max in the mid levels. Temperatures generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s for highs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure fills in and weakens as it moves into Southeast Canada. Pressure gradient lowers with gusts gradually lowering in magnitude. Breezy conditions expected to remain. Temperatures remain above normal but will be cooler Thursday than the previous day. Dry conditions expected. More sun expected Thursday compared to the previous day.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Another strong storm likely impacts the region late Friday into Saturday with another round of moderate to heavy rainfall, and strong, to potentially damaging winds, along with a coastal flooding threat. Another southern stream trough will be moving onshore of the Pacific northwest midweek and track across the country, reaching toward the Great Lakes Region late in the week. With some of the global guidance the upper trough is becoming more negatively tilted during Friday, keeping the surface low a little farther to the west. Timing of the heaviest rainfall and highest winds remains Friday night into Saturday as a low level jet of 50-70kts moves through the region. Also, an occluded low will be moving over the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. Strong lift, and some instability, along with elevated CAPE up to 500 J/kg will allow for a chance of thunderstorms. Precipitable waters also increases late Friday night, up to 1.35 inches, and a period of moderate to heavy rainfall remains possible. The is the potential for another flooding event as WPC has placed most of the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Finally, with the strong winds another high wind event is also becoming more likely. While there are a few days until the onset of this storm impacts are becoming more likely. Strong cold advection Saturday, behind a cold front, will be the leading edge of an Arctic airmass that will be over the region Sunday into Monday, with temperatures falling to near or just below seasonal normals. After a brief dry period another southern stream system may impact the region Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front will move across eastern Long Island and CT early this morning. Otherwise, the associated strong low pressure system extending from New England and upstate New York into Ontario will slowly pull way from the area through tonight. VFR attm except for KGON, which should remain LIFR until fropa by 14Z. A few light AM showers are possible that should not lower flight cat. WSW flow is taking longer to increase than originally expected, but should reach 20G30-35kt between about 16Z-17Z and 00Z-01Z give/take an hour. WSW to W winds then slowly diminish tonight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Unscheduled AMD still possible through the AM push for changing conditions. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thursday: VFR. WSW winds 10-15kt. Ocnl G15-20kt. Friday: VFR early, becoming MVFR or lower with rain. Increasing SE winds late. Friday night: MVFR or lower. SE winds 15-25kt G30-40kt. Saturday: MVFR or lower with rain. SE winds 20-30kt G30-40 kt, becoming W 20-25kt G30-35kt. Sunday...VFR. W 20-25kt G30-35kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Gale warnings remain in place across all waters. Gales on all waters through 10 PM this evening. Ocean waters have gales until midnight tonight. Thereafter, SCA conditions likely on the ocean through Thursday. For non-ocean waters, SCA conditions likely overnight tonight and probable for Thursday. The gusts for non-ocean waters Thursday may be more occasionally getting to 25 kt with more gusts to near 20 kt. Ocean seas build to 15 to 20 ft into today, then lower to generally near 10 to 15 ft tonight and then subside slowly to 5 to 8 ft Thursday. Winds and seas decreasing west to east during Thursday night but SCA conditions will likely remain on the ocean. An increasing southeast flow ahead of the next strong low will allow for gale conditions to develop Friday night across the forecast waters. There is a chance of storm force gusts on the ocean waters Saturday into Saturday night as gale condition continue on the non-ocean waters. Gales are likely behind the low Sunday, with conditions gradually improving Sunday night as high pressure builds toward the waters from the southwest.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Flood watch has been cancelled with additional rainfall expected to be light and not pose any additional flood threat. Flood hazards (accounting for both advisories and warnings) are in effect for much of the forecast region within NE NJ, NYC, parts of the Lower Hudson Valley, Western Long Island and within Southern CT. Area rivers are experiencing mostly minor flooding but there are some experiencing moderate to major. Hydrologic impacts remain possible Friday night into Saturday, as the Weather Prediction Center has much of the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with another round of moderate to heavy rain possible. One to two inches, with locally higher amounts remains possible. However, the exact magnitude and extent of the flooding issues are uncertain this far out. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Significant ocean dunefront damage expected today. Widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding with Wed AM high tide. Localized major coastal flooding will be possible, especially within the South Shore Bays of Long Island. SE storm force expected overnight into early today, with a windshift to west southwest gale likely just before the time of high tide for most areas. This windshift will likely limit potential for locally major coastal flooding to just the Great South Bay of LI. Elsewhere, widespread moderate flooding likely for southern bays of NYC/LI and eastern bays of LI, and SE CT. Elsewhere generally minor flooding. Along the oceanfront, potential for 15-20 ft surf causing widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes Wed AM. Localized dune inundation/breaches possible where dunes have been compromised by earlier storm events. 10 to 15 ft breaking surf expected with Wed PM high tide, and with lower water levels, expect dune impacts to be lower magnitude and less widespread. Coastal flood impacts are possible around the times of high tide Friday night and Saturday with another deep low tracking west of the area. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ009-010. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EST today for CTZ011-012. NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ071-078-177. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ072- 074-075. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ079>081-179. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ178. NJ...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ006- 104-106-108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BG MARINE...JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JM/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...