discussion on 2024-01-10

000
FXUS61 KOKX 101458
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
958 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The low pressure system slowly moves across Southeast Canada
today into tonight and eventually weakens. Low pressure slowly
moves within Southeastern Canada Thursday and Thursday night while
continuing to weaken. Another strong low pressure system will
likely bring heavy rain and high winds to the area Friday night
and Saturday. Arctic high pressure builds toward the region
Saturday night into Sunday. Another low may affect the region
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Lowered POPs to slight chance for the rest of this morning as
current radar returns and model guidance over the next few hours
continue to show that current showers moving through will not be
as widespread as previous forecast. Best chances for showers is
across eastern areas, such as the Twin Forks of Long Island and
southeastern Connecticut.

The cold front has pushed east of the area and westerly flow
has developed behind it. With pressure rises moving into place,
would expect a very gusty day with increasing boundary layer
depth. Previous discussion follows.

Taking into account both NAM and GFS BUFKIT forecast soundings,
taking midway between the mean mixed layer winds and top of the
boundary layer, getting many locations getting to around 40 kt
for wind gusts this afternoon.

Therefore, gusts up to 45 to 50 mph are expected and with
saturated grounds, trees may be more easily downed by these wind
gusts. This is why the wind advisory was issued.

There may be somewhat of a lull in the winds this morning before
more gusty winds develop this afternoon. The peak gusts are
expected mid to late this afternoon.

The wind advisory is in effect for the entire area, until 8pm
this evening.

Otherwise, there may be a few rain showers from time to time
with passing vort max in the mid levels. Temperatures generally
in the upper 40s to lower 50s for highs.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Low pressure fills in and weakens as it moves into Southeast
Canada.

Pressure gradient lowers with gusts gradually lowering in
magnitude. Breezy conditions expected to remain. Temperatures
remain above normal but will be cooler Thursday than the
previous day. Dry conditions expected. More sun expected
Thursday compared to the previous day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another strong storm likely impacts the region late Friday into
Saturday with another round of moderate to heavy rainfall, and
strong, to potentially damaging winds, along with a coastal flooding
threat.

Another southern stream trough will be moving onshore of the Pacific
northwest midweek and track across the country, reaching toward the
Great Lakes Region late in the week. With some of the global
guidance the upper trough is becoming more negatively tilted during
Friday, keeping the surface low a little farther to the west. Timing
of the heaviest rainfall and highest winds remains Friday night into
Saturday as a low level jet of 50-70kts moves through the region.
Also, an occluded low will be moving over the region late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Strong lift, and some instability,
along with elevated CAPE up to 500 J/kg will allow for a chance of
thunderstorms. Precipitable waters also increases late Friday night,
up to 1.35 inches, and a period of moderate to heavy rainfall
remains possible. The is the potential for another flooding event as
WPC has placed most of the area in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall. Finally, with the strong winds another high wind event is
also becoming more likely. While there are a few days until the
onset of this storm impacts are becoming more likely.

Strong cold advection Saturday, behind a cold front, will be the
leading edge of an Arctic airmass that will be over the region
Sunday into Monday, with temperatures falling to near or just below
seasonal normals.

After a brief dry period another southern stream system may impact
the region Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong low pressure over northern New England and southern
Canada will continue moving northeast of the area into tonight.

Mainly VFR. A few brief showers are possible into the afternoon.

W-WSW flow will continue increasing this morning, reaching
20g30-35 kt late this morning through early evening (00z-01z).
WSW to W winds then slowly diminish tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts 35-40kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. WSW winds 10-15kt. Ocnl G15-20kt.

Friday: VFR early, becoming MVFR or lower with rain. Increasing SE
winds late

Friday night: MVFR or lower. SE winds 15-25kt G30-40kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with rain. SE winds 20-30kt G30-40 kt,
becoming W 20-25kt G30-35kt.

Sunday...VFR. W 20-25kt G30-35kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings remain in place across all waters.

Gales on all waters through 10 PM this evening. Ocean waters
have gales until midnight tonight.

Thereafter, SCA conditions likely on the ocean through Thursday.
For non-ocean waters, SCA conditions likely overnight tonight
and probable for Thursday. The gusts for non-ocean waters
Thursday may be more occasionally getting to 25 kt with more
gusts to near 20 kt.

Ocean seas build to 15 to 20 ft into today, then lower to
generally near 10 to 15 ft tonight and then subside slowly to 5
to 8 ft Thursday.

Winds and seas decreasing west to east during Thursday night
but SCA conditions will likely remain on the ocean.

An increasing southeast flow ahead of the next strong low will
allow for gale conditions to develop Friday night across the
forecast waters. There is a chance of storm force gusts on the
ocean waters Saturday into Saturday night as gale condition
continue on the non-ocean waters. Gales are likely behind the
low Sunday, with conditions gradually improving Sunday night as
high pressure builds toward the waters from the southwest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood watch has been cancelled with additional rainfall expected
to be light and not pose any additional flood threat.

Flood hazards (accounting for both advisories and warnings) are
in effect for much of the forecast region within NE NJ, NYC,
parts of the Lower Hudson Valley, Western Long Island and within
Southern CT. Area rivers are experiencing mostly minor flooding
but there are some experiencing moderate to major.

Hydrologic impacts remain possible Friday night into Saturday, as
the Weather Prediction Center has much of the area in a slight risk
for excessive rainfall, with another round of moderate to heavy rain
possible. One to two inches, with locally higher amounts remains
possible. However, the exact magnitude and extent of the flooding
issues are uncertain this far out.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --Significant ocean dune-front damage expected today. Widespread
minor to moderate coastal flooding with Wed AM high tide.
Localized major coastal flooding will be possible, especially
within the South Shore Bays of Long Island.

SE storm force expected overnight into early today, with a
windshift to west southwest gale likely just before the time of
high tide for most areas. This windshift will likely limit
potential for locally major coastal flooding to just the Great
South Bay of LI. Elsewhere, widespread moderate flooding likely
for southern bays of NYC/LI and eastern bays of LI, and SE CT.
Elsewhere generally minor flooding.

Along the oceanfront, potential for 15-20 ft surf causing
widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes Wed AM.
Localized dune inundation/breaches possible where dunes have
been compromised by earlier storm events. 10 to 15 ft breaking
surf expected with Wed PM high tide, and with lower water
levels, expect dune impacts to be lower magnitude and less
widespread.

Coastal flood impacts are possible around the times of high
tide Friday night and Saturday with another deep low tracking
west of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Warning until noon EST today for CTZ011-012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ071-078-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ072-
     074-075.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ079>081-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ178.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ006-
     104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/JP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG/DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...