000
FXUS61 KOKX 102120
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
420 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure moves northeast into southeastern Canada tonight. A
weakening clipper system passes north of the area late Thursday into
Thursday night. Another strong low pressure system will track to our
west and impact the area Friday night into Saturday. High pressure
briefly builds in for the rest of the weekend into early next week.
A coastal low may impact the area sometime early to mid next
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure at the surface will head into northern New
England and southeastern Connecticut tonight, slowly weakening as it
does so. This will allow the pressure gradient to gradually relax
through the night, which will mean diminishing winds. Winds have
been lower then forecast all day, and winds of 45 to 50 mph do not
seem likely at this point, even with cold advection getting
underway, therefore, have cancelled the Wind Advisory for the entire
area, as gusts should be limited to the lower 30 kt range or less
for the first few hours of the evening. An isolated gust may reach
the 45 to 50 mph range this evening, especially for eastern areas,
but this is not enough to warrant the continuance of the advisory.
Gusts diminish to around 20 mph by daybreak.

In the upper levels, some very weak riding out ahead of an
approaching weakening shortwave from the central Great Lakes region
moves across northwestern New England and southeastern Canada. This
will allow for dry conditions tonight.

Despite clouds being on the decrease with the low exiting the
Northeast, the breezy conditions will keep temperatures above normal
for this time of year, in the upper 20s to middle 30s across much of
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level shortwave and its associated surface low will move
into the western Great Lakes region Thursday, then into northern New
England tonight, weakening as it does so. Dry conditions will
continue Thursday and Thursday night. High temperatures continue to
be above normal, in the lower to middle 40s.

Weak high pressure at the surface builds in quickly, moving overhead
by daybreak Friday. This will allow for some colder temperatures,
especially in the outlying areas, but still above normal for this
time of year. Lows will be in the middle 20s in the outlying areas
to middle 30s in the metro area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
* KEY POINTS *

* Another strong low pressure system will impact the area Friday
  night into Saturday.

* This system will likely bring strong winds and coastal
  flooding to portions of the area and widespread moderate to
  heavy rainfall.

* Hydrologic impacts are likely. See hydrology section below.

Quiet and mild weather is expected the first half of Friday as high
pressure slides through the area and a ridge axis shifts east aloft.

Attention then turns to another strong low pressure system that will
impact the area. This system overall looks very similar to the
system that just impacted our area Tuesday night into this
(Wednesday) morning. Upper level energy comes onshore the northwest
CONUS and dives down through the Four Corners region into the
Southern Plains. This trough lifts north and becomes closed as it
tracks over the Great Lakes along with the associated surface low.
This again places us on the east side of the storm and in the path
of a plume of moisture (PWATS ~1.25 inches) being lifted up from the
Gulf of Mexico.

The main hazards with this system will be hydro impacts (see
hydrology section) coastal flooding and winds. There are a few
main differences with this storm and the one that previously
impacted the area. Although still strong, this LLJ looks a bit
weaker, with a strong inversion in place. Strong winds look
likely, but the threat for damaging winds is lower. Went lower
than the NBM because of this and blended in some CONSALL and
Superblend. There also looks to be more instability with this
system, about 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, so thunder is in the forecast
during the Friday night period. QPF overall also looks a bit
lower, with a widespread 1 to 2 inches forecast as of right now.
However, due to how much rainfall we have got recently, there
is still hydrology concerns (see hydrology section below).

Behind this system is where the guidance starts to spread a bit.
However, the general idea is that cold air builds in behind the
departing system and then there is potential for a coastal low
to pass south and east of the area. There is a lot of spread
with timing and strength, but potential is there for this
system to bring rain and/or snow to the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strong low pressure will continue moving to the northeast through
this evening. High pressure builds towards the region tonight into
Friday.

VFR. An isolated shower is possible this afternoon.

W-WSW winds 15-20kt with gusts 25-30 kt expected into early this
evening. A few gusts could peak around 35 kt. Winds and gusts begin
to weaken after 00z with gusts ending overnight into early Thursday
morning. WSW-SW 10-13 kt with gusts 15-20 kt possible late Friday
morning into the afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts around 35 kt possible through 00z.

End time of gust tonight may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Afternoon-Night: VFR. WSW-SW gusts 15-20 kt possible in the
afternoon.

Friday: VFR early, becoming MVFR or lower late with chance of rain.
Increasing SE winds late

Friday night: IFR or lower in rain. SE winds 15-25kt G30-40kt. Winds
and gusts highest along the coast.

Saturday: MVFR or lower early in rain, then VFR. SW winds becoming W
20-25kt G30-35kt.

Sunday...VFR. W 15-20kt G25-30kt.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Low chance for rain/snow mix late.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gale Warnings are expected to continue on all waters this evening.
Gales on the non-ocean waters are in effect until 10 pm, while the
ocean waters are in effect until midnight. Both these warnings may
need to come down a couple of hours prior.

Thereafter, SCA will likely need to be issued for waves on the ocean
and central and eastern sound waters. Waves on the ocean waters
start off this evening around 10 ft to as high as 17 ft and will
diminish through Thursday, but will remain above 5 ft through the
then. The central and eastern sound waters will remain above 5 ft
through tonight, with the eastern most sound zone coming down below
5 ft by Thursday afternoon and possibly Thursday evening.

An increasing southeast flow ahead of the next strong low will allow
for gale conditions to develop Friday night across all waters. There
is also a chance of storm force gusts on the ocean waters Friday
night and Saturday as gale condition continue on the non-ocean
waters. Gales are likely behind the low early Sunday, with
conditions gradually improving Sunday night as high pressure
builds toward the waters from the southwest. Small craft
conditions look possible with a potential coastal low early to
mid next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Flood hazards (accounting for both advisories and warnings)
continue across portions of northeast New Jersey, the Lower
Hudson Valley, and southern Connecticut, with rivers ranging
from minor to major flood stage. However, some rivers have
receded. Some of the slower responding streams, especially in
New Jersey, have yet to crest.

Hydrologic impacts are likely Friday night into Saturday. The
Weather Prediction Center now has the whole area in a slight risk
for excessive rainfall, due to another round of moderate to heavy
rain. One to two inches of rainfall is currently forecast, with
locally higher amounts possible. With rivers and streams running
high from previous rainfall, widespread minor to moderate river
flooding looks likely along the quick responding rivers and streams
in Northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT.
Details on the extent of flooding will become more clear over
the next 36 hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for the south shore of
Long Island and Queens as previous widespread moderate to major
coastal flooding continues to recede this evening. Breaking
waves of 10 to 15 ft along the oceanfront will result in beach
flooding and scattered dune erosion with this evening high tide.
Overwashes are not expected this evening.

Coastal flood impacts are possible around the times of high
tide Friday night and Saturday with another deep low tracking
west of the area.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for CTZ011-012.
NY...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ178.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ079>081-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...