000
FXUS61 KOKX 110543
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1243 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast into southeastern Canada tonight. A
weakening clipper system passes north of the area late Thursday into
Thursday night. Another strong low pressure system will track to our
west and impact the area Friday night into Saturday. High pressure
briefly builds in for the rest of the weekend into early next week.
A coastal low may impact the area sometime early to mid next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Bumped temps up a couple of degrees this evening with some lingering
cloud cover, otherwise forecast remains on track. Previous
discussion follows.
Low pressure at the surface will continue to head northeast, slowly
weakening as it does so. This will allow the pressure gradient to
gradually relax through the night, which will mean diminishing
winds. Gusts diminish to around 20 mph by daybreak.
In the upper levels, some very weak riding out ahead of an
approaching weakening shortwave from the central Great Lakes region
moves across northwestern New England and southeastern Canada. This
will allow for dry conditions tonight.
Despite clouds being on the decrease with the low exiting the
Northeast, the breezy conditions will keep temperatures above normal
for this time of year, in the upper 20s to middle 30s across much of
the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The upper level shortwave and its associated surface low will move
into the western Great Lakes region Thursday, then into northern New
England tonight, weakening as it does so. Dry conditions will
continue Thursday and Thursday night. High temperatures continue to
be above normal, in the lower to middle 40s.
Weak high pressure at the surface builds in quickly, moving overhead
by daybreak Friday. This will allow for some colder temperatures,
especially in the outlying areas, but still above normal for this
time of year. Lows will be in the middle 20s in the outlying areas
to middle 30s in the metro area.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* KEY POINTS *
* Another strong low pressure system will impact the area Friday
night into Saturday.
* This system will likely bring strong winds and coastal
flooding to portions of the area and widespread moderate to
heavy rainfall.
* Hydrologic impacts are likely. See hydrology section below.
Quiet and mild weather is expected the first half of Friday as high
pressure slides through the area and a ridge axis shifts east aloft.
Attention then turns to another strong low pressure system that will
impact the area. This system overall looks very similar to the
system that just impacted our area Tuesday night into this
(Wednesday) morning. Upper level energy comes onshore the northwest
CONUS and dives down through the Four Corners region into the
Southern Plains. This trough lifts north and becomes closed as it
tracks over the Great Lakes along with the associated surface low.
This again places us on the east side of the storm and in the path
of a plume of moisture (PWATS ~1.25 inches) being lifted up from the
Gulf of Mexico.
The main hazards with this system will be hydro impacts (see
hydrology section) coastal flooding and winds. There are a few
main differences with this storm and the one that previously
impacted the area. Although still strong, this LLJ looks a bit
weaker, with a strong inversion in place. Strong winds look
likely, but the threat for damaging winds is lower. Went lower
than the NBM because of this and blended in some CONSALL and
Superblend. There also looks to be more instability with this
system, about 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, so thunder is in the forecast
during the Friday night period. QPF overall also looks a bit
lower, with a widespread 1 to 2 inches forecast as of right now.
However, due to how much rainfall we have got recently, there
is still hydrology concerns (see hydrology section below).
Behind this system is where the guidance starts to spread a bit.
However, the general idea is that cold air builds in behind the
departing system and then there is potential for a coastal low
to pass south and east of the area. There is a lot of spread
with timing and strength, but potential is there for this
system to bring rain and/or snow to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
In the wake of exiting low pressure, weak high pressure builds
in through Thursday.
VFR through the TAF period.
W/WSW winds 10-15 kt, gusts up to 25 kt, expected into the first half
of the overnight, gradually weakening with gusts ending by 09Z
Thu or so. Speeds remain near 10 kt through Thursday, with a
period of 20 kt gusts in the afternoon and early evening. Light
westerly flow under 10 kt thereafter.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts overnight may be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts Thursday afternoon may be more occasional.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Late Thursday night: VFR. W flow under 10 kt.
Friday: VFR early, becoming MVFR or lower late with chance of rain.
Increasing SE winds late.
Friday night: IFR or lower in rain. SE winds 15-25kt G30-40kt. Winds
and gusts highest along the coast.
Saturday: MVFR or lower early in rain, then VFR. SW winds becoming W
20-25kt G30-35kt.
Sunday...VFR. W 15-20kt G25-30kt.
Monday...Mainly VFR. Low chance for rain/snow mix late.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The Gale Warning on all waters have been replaced with Small
Craft Advisories. SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters
through at least Thursday, with 5 ft waves. SCA conditions on
all other waters likely end Thursday morning.
Waves on the ocean waters start off this evening around 10 ft
to as high as 17 ft and will diminish through Thursday, but will
remain above 5 ft through the then. The central and eastern
sound waters will remain above 5 ft through tonight, with the
eastern most sound zone coming down below 5 ft by Thursday
afternoon and possibly Thursday evening.
An increasing southeast flow ahead of the next strong low will allow
for gale conditions to develop Friday night across all waters. There
is also a chance of storm force gusts on the ocean waters Friday
night and Saturday as gale condition continue on the non-ocean
waters. Gales are likely behind the low early Sunday, with
conditions gradually improving Sunday night as high pressure
builds toward the waters from the southwest. Small craft
conditions look possible with a potential coastal low early to
mid next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Flood hazards (both advisories and warnings) continue across
portions of northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and
southern Connecticut, with rivers ranging from minor to major
flood stage. However, some rivers have receded. Some of the
slower responding streams, especially in New Jersey, have yet to
crest.
Hydrologic impacts are likely Friday night into Saturday. The
Weather Prediction Center now has the whole area in a slight risk
for excessive rainfall, due to another round of moderate to heavy
rain. One to two inches of rainfall is currently forecast, with
locally higher amounts possible. With rivers and streams running
high from previous rainfall, widespread minor to moderate river
flooding looks likely along the quick responding rivers and streams
in Northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT.
Details on the extent of flooding will become more clear over
the next 36 hours.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread moderate to locally major coastal flood impact
potential for the Saturday morning high tide as SE gales build
surge to 3 to 4 ft Friday Night, with wind shift to SW gales
Saturday morning near the time of high tide. Timing of
windshift will be critical for magnitude of surge and
determining how widespread potential for major flooding is. This
scenario, like last night and Dec 18th events, is conducive to
water piling up in the Great South Bay of during strongest wind
forcing, inhibited from drainage thru inlets as tide comes in
and accompanied by high wave action, and then shifting this
elevated water to the east side of the GSB with windshift.
Elsewhere, widespread minor to locally moderate flooding likely.
Along the oceanfront, breaking surf height should be lower than
the last couple of events, but 12 to 16 ft breaking surf with
similarly elevated water levels impacting compromised dune
structure will likely result in another round of widespread dune
erosion and scattered overwashes. Localized breaches possible
where dunes have been severely compromised and barrier beaches
are narrow.
Forecast details will be refined over the next 48 hrs.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for CTZ011-012.
NY...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for NYZ178.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for NYZ079>081-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JP/DR/JT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...