000
FXUS61 KOKX 111140
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
640 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weakening Alberta clipper will pass to the north today,
followed briefly by high pressure tonight into Friday. Another
strong low pressure system will track to our west and impact the
area Friday night into Saturday. As the low tracks through
eastern Canada Saturday night and Sunday, a cold front will pass
through late Sunday. High pressure will build into the area
late Sunday and Sunday night, then a coastal low may impact the
area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will return on
Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Overcast skies persist with moisture trapped beneath a
subsidence inversion at 4 kft. These clouds may not dissipate
much inland NW of NYC with mostly cloudy skies expected through
the day, but should scatter out closer to the coast, with a
mostly sunny afternoon for Long Island and NYC metro. Above
normal temps continue with highs mostly in the mid 40s, with a
WSW wind gusting over 20 mph at times in the metro area and
across Long Island.
As the clipper passes to the north, there could be a period of
more clouds this evening, then a mostly clear night expected as
winds gradually shift from WSW-W to the W-NW. Lows tonight
should range from the upper 20s inland, to the mid/upper 30s in
the NYC metro area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure briefly moves across on Fri, with highs again in
the mid 40s, and NW-N winds veering over to the E-SE in the
afternoon.
Another strong low pressure system will impact the area Fri
night into Sat, with strong winds, coastal flooding, and
possible river flooding.
The system looks very similar to the one that just impacted
our area Tue night into Wed morning. Upper level energy diving
down through the Four Corners region will lift NE and close
off/rapidly deepen over the Plains as it tracks toward the Great
Lakes. This again places us on the east side of the storm and
in the path of a plume of moisture being lifted up from the
Gulf of Mexico.
The hazards with this system will be hydro impacts, coastal
flooding, and winds. There are a few differences with this
storm and the one that previously impacted the area. Although
still strong, this LLJ looks a bit weaker, with a stronger
inversion in place. Strong winds look likely, but the threat for
damaging winds is lower. There also looks to be more
instability with this system, about 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, so
thunder is in the forecast out east late Fri night. QPF overall
also looks a bit lower, with a widespread 1.5-2.0 inches
forecast. However, due to how much rainfall we have got
recently, there are still hydrologic concerns.
Winds shift WSW on Sat after the system passes through, with
rain pulling off to the east and brisk conditions continuing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A deep closed upper low, along with a surface low, track
through eastern Canada Saturday night through Sunday night. A
shortwave and cold front rotate through the upper low, with a
cold front passing through the region late Sunday into Sunday
evening. There is some moisture accompanying the front and a few
snow showers or flurries will be possible across the lower
Hudson Valley. Depending on how amplified the shortwave is snow
showers will be possible toward the coast. This front will be
the leading edge of colder air to move into the region for the
beginning of the week. The core of the Arctic airmass will
remain to the northwest. Temperatures for the beginning of the
week will be near seasonal normals. A developing coastal low
along the southeastern coast late Monday will track northeast
through midweek. There are some timing and low track placement
differences in the global guidance which will affect the impacts
across the region. With cold air remaining in place, at this
time snow looks likely across the region, however it is too
early to determine amounts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Weak high pressure builds in today and moves off the Northeast
coast Friday as a low approaches from the southwest.
VFR through the TAF period.
W winds around 10kt becoming gusty by midday, with gusts up to
20kt through late this afternoon. Low confidence on the gusts
developing, and gusts may be more occasional. Winds become NW
less than 10kt to light and variable late tonight into early
Friday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts this afternoon may be more occasional.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR.
Friday night: Becoming MVFR early, then IFR or lower in rain.
SE winds 15-25kt G30-40kt. Winds and gusts highest along the
coast.
Saturday: MVFR or lower early in rain, then VFR. S winds
becoming W 20-30kt G30-35kt.
Sunday...VFR. W 20-25kt G30-35kt.
Monday...Mainly VFR. Low chance for light snow with MVFR to IFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean and the ern Sound/Bays, for wind
gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas 6-12 ft, both highest east. Winds
should diminish early this morning on the non ocean waters, but
continue through the morning on the ocean, followed by elevated
seas into tonight.
Storm watch issued for Fri night for the ocean and a gale watch
Fri night-Sat for the non ocean waters. After a lull on all
waters daytime Fri, winds and seas increase again in
strengthening SE-S flow Fri night, with gales likely on all
waters and a period of storm force gusts possible on the ocean
waters late Fri night. Gales continue on all waters daytime Sat
as winds shift SW to WSW.
Gale force gusts will be on-going across the forecast waters
Saturday night as deep low pressure tracks through eastern
Canada. There is a chance of storm force gusts on the ocean
waters again Saturday night. Gale likely continue Sunday as a
cold front moves through the waters. Conditions gradually
improve, diminishing to SCA levels, Sunday night as high
pressure builds toward the waters from the southwest, and then
mostly below SCA levels Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Flood warnings and advisories continue across portions of NE
NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southern CT, with rivers
receding but some still in minor flood stage.
Hydrologic impacts are likely Friday night into Saturday. WPC
continues a slight risk of excessive rainfall, due to another
round of moderate to heavy rain. One to two inches of rainfall
is currently forecast, with locally higher amounts possible.
With rivers and streams running high from previous rainfall,
widespread minor to moderate river flooding looks likely along
the quick responding rivers and streams in Northeast NJ, the
Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Widespread moderate to locally major coastal flood impact
potential for the Saturday morning high tide as SE gales build
surge to 3-4 ft Fri night, with wind shift to SW gales Saturday
morning near the time of high tide. Timing of wind shift will
be critical for magnitude of surge. This scenario, like the Tue
night and and Dec 18th events, is conducive to water piling up
in the Great South Bay during strongest wind forcing, inhibited
from drainage thru inlets as tide comes in and accompanied by
high wave action, and then shifting this elevated water to the
east side of the bay with the wind shift. Elsewhere, widespread
minor to locally moderate flooding is likely.
Along the oceanfront, breaking surf height should be lower than
the last couple of events, but 12-16 ft breaking surf with
similarly elevated water levels impacting compromised dune
structure will likely result in another round of widespread dune
erosion and scattered overwashes. Localized breaches possible
where dunes have been severely compromised and barrier beaches
are narrow.
Forecast details will be refined over the next 48 hrs.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for CTZ011-012.
NY...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for NYZ178.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for NYZ079>081-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-
332-340.
Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...