000
FXUS61 KOKX 121040
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
540 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure building across from the west this morning will
pass east this afternoon. Intense low pressure will then move
toward the upper Great Lakes tonight, while its associated
frontal system impacts the area, sending one cold front through
early Saturday, followed by a secondary cold front on Sunday.
High pressure will then briefly build in early next week. A
coastal low may impact the area early to mid next week. High
pressure will again briefly build in later in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Skies are clear across the area attm. High and then mid level
clouds associated with the storm off to the west should
overspread the area this afternoon, while a light NW flow veers
around to the E and then SE this afternoon as high pressure
quickly moves across. Temps should again reach the mid/upper
40s per MOS blend leaning toward the warmer MAV numbers.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Another strong, negatively tilted upper trough will lift
northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley today and and up
into the Great Lakes tonight, preceded by a rapidly intensifying
sfc low. A strong frontal system out ahead of the low will be
preceded by deep- layered lift and anomalously high PW of 1.00-1.25
inches.
Rain will advance across the area from SW to NE this evening,
possibly mixed with snow or sleet at the onset across some of
the far nrn zones. This remains a progressive system with the
heaviest rain clearing far eastern areas by around 8 AM. This
system will bring less rainfall to the area than its
predecessor, a widespread 1-2 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible. However, due to the recent stretch of rainfall
events starting back in mid December, streamflows remain high
and grounds are saturated. FFG values are extremely low across
NE NJ (under an inch), and while higher elsewhere, it will not
take long for faster responding river and streams to reach or
exceed bank full. In addition, a strong SE flow will favor
orographic enhancement. Thus, the Flood Watch remains in effect
for srn CT, NE NJ, and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley
(Rockland and Westchester). Coastal flooding could also
exacerbate flooding along tidal rivers. Elsewhere, the threat
will be for mainly minor nuisance freshwater flooding (outside
of coastal flooding...see sections below), but basement flooding
has also been a problem for the area due to the saturated soils.
SE winds will steadily ramp up this evening, with winds reaching
advisory levels mainly after midnight in the NYC metro area and
along the coast. Expect gusts up to 40 mph inland and 45-55 mph
at the coast. Cannot totally rule out a few gusts close to 60
mph along the south shore of eastern Long Island.
A few lingering showers are possible later Saturday morning,
otherwise conditions dry out with clearing. Gusty west winds on
the back side of the storm system will get up to 35-40 mph.
Temperatures will remain on the mild side. In fact, temperatures
ahead of the cold front Saturday morning will get to 50-55 in
the NYC metro area and across Long Island. Thereafter, readings
may remain steady before falling off late in the day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A deep closed upper low along with an associated surface low
will track through Eastern Canada Sunday into Sunday night. A
rather strong shortwave will be moving through the upper low
Sunday as the surface low sends the leading edge of much colder
air, a cold front, through the region. There are some
differences in the guidance as to how much the atmospheric
column will be saturated. There will be some lift along and
behind the front, and there will be a chance for snow showers
inland, and rain and snow showers along the coast, and changing
to all snow showers as the cold air moves in to the region. With
with the gusty winds and any heavier snow showers visibilities
may be reduced significantly. The cold front will be the leading
edge of potentially the coldest airmass since late November
2023. Temperatures Sunday night through the end of the week will
be around 5 to as much as 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
Another coastal low may impact the region early to mid next
week. There remains uncertainty with the track and timing of
this system. The GFS and Canadian remain closest to the coast
while the ECMWF tracks the low a little more quickly and farther
to the east. With the spread in the guidance used the NBM for
probabilities. Cold air will remain in place and any
precipitation that does occur will be in the form of snow. With
the uncertainty in the track and timing it remains too early to
mention any amounts. High pressure returns behind the low for
late in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure over the area slides offshore early this morning.
Low pressure then approaches from the west, impacting the
terminals tonight into Saturday.
VFR through this afternoon with MVFR cigs quickly developing
after 00Z Saturday as rain moves in. IFR or lower tonight into
Saturday morning.
WNW flow overnight becomes light and variable for a period mid
to late morning through the early afternoon. Thereafter,
increasing SE flow, with gusts developing toward 00Z Saturday.
LLWS develops at city terminals around 06Z Saturday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely tonight into Saturday morning for changing
categories.
Timing of wind shift late this morning into early afternoon may
be off by an hour or two.
Isolated 40+ kt gusts possible overnight into Saturday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Late tonight: IFR or lower in rain. SE winds 15-25kt G30-40kt.
Winds and gusts highest along the coast.
Saturday: MVFR or lower early in rain, then VFR. S winds
becoming W 20-30kt G30-35kt.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR with a slight chance of snow
showers or flurries during the afternoon. W 15-25kt G30-35kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Near term SCA continues for the ocean through the morning,
where 5-6 ft swells are taking longer to subside than originally
fcst.
Replaced the Storm Watch on the ocean waters with a Gale
Warning, as SE winds ramp up to 25-35 kt with frequent gusts up
to 45 kt after midnight. A brief gust up to 50 kt possible
late, but duration does not warrant a storm warning. Also issued
a Gale Warning for the non ocean waters where winds should gust
to 40-45 kt late tonight.
Behind the system, a westerly gale is likely Sat into Sat night,
especially for the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays. Did not
yet extend the warning into daytime Sat for the wrn Sound and
the Harbor where confidence in seeing frequent gusts to 35 kt
was lower.
With the center of a deep low tracking through Eastern Canada a
strong pressure gradient will remain across the forecast waters
Sunday into Sunday night. A strong and gusty westerly flow
will produce at least SCA conditions on the non ocean waters
into late Sunday night, with a chance of low end gale gusts
during a portion of the day Sunday. On the ocean waters, gale
force gusts are likely Sunday into early Sunday night, with SCA
gusts afterwards.
As high pressure builds into the waters late Sunday night into
Monday conditions will be gradually improving with the non
ocean waters likely below SCA levels early Monday morning and
the ocean waters remaining at SCA levels until around midday
Monday. Conditions will then remain below advisory levels until
later Tuesday as a coastal low may impact the forecast waters
with SCA conditions developing late Tuesday into Tuesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Some river flood warnings continue across portions of NE NJ and
southern CT. The Passaic River is still in moderate to major
flood.
Hydrologic impacts are likely late tonight into Saturday. WPC
continues a slight risk of excessive rainfall, due to another
round of moderate to heavy rain. One to two inches of rainfall
is currently forecast, with locally higher amounts possible.
With rivers and streams running high from previous rainfall,
widespread minor to moderate river flooding looks likely along
the fast-responding rivers and streams in NE NJ, the Lower
Hudson Valley, and southern CT.
There are no hydrologic concerns Saturday night through Thursday
at this time. It is too early to talk specific snowfall amounts
with the potential coastal low early to mid next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Widespread minor to moderate with areas of major coastal flood
potential continues to increase for the Saturday morning high
tide as SE gales build surge to 3-4 ft Fri night, with a wind
shift to SW gales Saturday morning near the time of high tide.
Timing of wind shift will be an important factor for the
magnitude of surge. This scenario, like the Tue night and Dec
18th events, is conducive to water piling up in the Great South
Bay during strongest wind forcing, inhibited from drainage thru
inlets as tide comes in and accompanied by high wave action,
and then shifting this elevated water to the east side of the
bay with the wind shift. Potential for widespread major exits
here. Major flood thresholds looks to be a reasonable worst case
scenario for Jamaica Bay. Elsewhere, widespread minor to locally
moderate flooding is expected.
Along the oceanfront, breaking surf height should be lower than
the last couple of events, but 12-16 ft breaking surf with
similarly elevated water levels, impacting compromised dune
structure will likely result in another round of widespread
dune erosion and scattered overwashes. Localized breaches
possible where dunes have been severely compromised and barrier
beaches are narrow.
Forecast details will be refined over the next 24 hrs.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
CTZ008>011.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for
CTZ009-010.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Saturday for
CTZ011-012.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday for
CTZ012.
NY...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
NYZ069>071.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ178.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday for
NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ072-074-075.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ079>081-179.
NJ...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
NJZ006-106-108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Saturday for
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV