000
FXUS61 KOKX 121836
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
136 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to move offshore this afternoon.
Intense low pressure will then move toward the upper Great Lakes
tonight, while its associated frontal system impacts the area,
sending one cold front through early Saturday, followed by a
secondary cold front on Sunday. High pressure will then briefly
build in early next week. A coastal low may impact the area
early to mid next week. High pressure will again briefly build
in later in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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For this update, had to bump up temperatures a bit. Highs are
now forecast to be in the upper 40s to around 50.
High level clouds associated with the storm off to the west
will overspread the area this afternoon, while light winds
veer around to the SE. Temps should again reach the mid/upper
40s per MOS blend leaning toward the warmer MAV numbers.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Another strong, negatively tilted upper trough will lift
northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley today and and up
into the Great Lakes tonight, preceded by a rapidly
intensifying sfc low. A strong frontal system out ahead of the
low will be preceded by deep-layered lift and anomalously high
PW of 1.00-1.25 inches.
Rain will advance across the area from SW to NE this evening,
possibly mixed with snow or sleet at the onset across some of
the far nrn zones. This remains a progressive system with the
heaviest rain clearing far eastern areas by around 8 AM. This
system will bring less rainfall to the area than its
predecessor, a widespread 1-2 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible. However, due to the recent stretch of rainfall
events starting back in mid December, streamflows remain high
and grounds are saturated. FFG values are extremely low across
NE NJ (under an inch), and while higher elsewhere, it will not
take long for faster responding river and streams to reach or
exceed bank full. In addition, a strong SE flow will favor
orographic enhancement. Thus, the Flood Watch remains in effect
for srn CT, NE NJ, and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley
(Rockland and Westchester). Coastal flooding could also
exacerbate flooding along tidal rivers. Elsewhere, the threat
will be for mainly minor nuisance freshwater flooding (outside
of coastal flooding...see sections below), but basement flooding
has also been a problem for the area due to the saturated soils.
SE winds will steadily ramp up this evening, with winds reaching
advisory levels mainly after midnight in the NYC metro area and
along the coast. Expect gusts up to 40 mph inland and 45-55 mph
at the coast. Cannot totally rule out a few gusts close to 60
mph along the south shore of eastern Long Island.
A few lingering showers are possible later Saturday morning,
otherwise conditions dry out with clearing. Gusty west winds on
the back side of the storm system will get up to 35-40 mph.
Temperatures will remain on the mild side. In fact, temperatures
ahead of the cold front Saturday morning will get to 50-55 in
the NYC metro area and across Long Island. Thereafter, readings
may remain steady before falling off late in the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A deep closed upper low along with an associated surface low
will track through Eastern Canada Sunday into Sunday night. A
rather strong shortwave will be moving through the upper low
Sunday as the surface low sends the leading edge of much colder
air, a cold front, through the region. There are some
differences in the guidance as to how much the atmospheric
column will be saturated. There will be some lift along and
behind the front, and there will be a chance for snow showers
inland, and rain and snow showers along the coast, and changing
to all snow showers as the cold air moves in to the region. With
with the gusty winds and any heavier snow showers visibilities
may be reduced significantly. The cold front will be the leading
edge of potentially the coldest airmass since late November
2023. Temperatures Sunday night through the end of the week will
be around 5 to as much as 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
Another coastal low may impact the region early to mid next
week. There remains uncertainty with the track and timing of
this system. The GFS and Canadian remain closest to the coast
while the ECMWF tracks the low a little more quickly and farther
to the east. With the spread in the guidance used the NBM for
probabilities. Cold air will remain in place and any
precipitation that does occur will be in the form of snow. With
the uncertainty in the track and timing it remains too early to
mention any amounts. High pressure returns behind the low for
late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure approaches from the west, impacting the terminals
tonight into Saturday.
VFR through this afternoon with MVFR cigs quickly developing
around 03Z Saturday as rain moves in. IFR, potentially briefly lower,
overnight into Saturday morning. PROB30 remains for thunderstorms
late tonight.
E/SE around 10kt this afternoon increase this evening to 20-25kt
late tonight with gusts developing toward 00Z Saturday. Gusts
may be as high as 45kt for a brief period 05Z to 10Z,
especially along the coast. LLWS develops around 05Z through 12Z
with 2Kft winds up to 65kt, and possibly 70kt along the coast.
Winds become SW Saturday morning. There will be a brief lull in
the early morning and then late morning into the afternoon gusts
will come back up to mainly 30-35kt, with potential for an
isolated 40kt gust.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments tonight into Saturday morning for changing
categories.
Isolated 40-45 kt gusts possible 05Z to 10Z, especially at
KJFK.
After a lull period in winds early Saturday morning, potential
for an isolated 40kt gust Saturday afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Afternoon: VFR. SW 20-30kt G30-35kt, isolated 40kt
gust possible.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR with a slight chance of snow
showers or flurries during the afternoon. W 15-25kt G30-35kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow.
Wednesday: VFR. W-NW gusts 25 to 30kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Gales are up on all waters for tonight as SE winds ramp up to
25-35 kt with gusts 40 to 45 kt after midnight, highest on the
ocean waters. A brief gust up to 50 kt possible late on the
ocean, but duration does not warrant a storm warning.
Behind the system, a westerly gale is likely Sat into Sat night,
especially for the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays. Did not
yet extend the warning into daytime Sat for the wrn Sound and
the Harbor where confidence in seeing frequent gusts to 35 kt
was lower.
With the center of a deep low tracking through Eastern Canada a
strong pressure gradient will remain across the forecast waters
Sunday into Sunday night. A strong and gusty westerly flow
will produce at least SCA conditions on the non ocean waters
into late Sunday night, with a chance of low end gale gusts
during a portion of the day Sunday. On the ocean waters, gale
force gusts are likely Sunday into early Sunday night, with SCA
gusts afterwards.
As high pressure builds into the waters late Sunday night into
Monday conditions will be gradually improving with the non
ocean waters likely below SCA levels early Monday morning and
the ocean waters remaining at SCA levels until around midday
Monday. Conditions will then remain below advisory levels until
later Tuesday as a coastal low may impact the forecast waters
with SCA conditions developing late Tuesday into Tuesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Some river flood warnings continue across portions of NE NJ and
southern CT. The Passaic River is still in moderate to major
flood.
Hydrologic impacts are likely late tonight into Saturday. WPC
continues a slight risk of excessive rainfall, due to another
round of moderate to heavy rain. One to two inches of rainfall
is currently forecast, with locally higher amounts possible.
With rivers and streams running high from previous rainfall,
widespread minor to moderate river flooding looks likely along
the fast-responding rivers and streams in NE NJ, the Lower
Hudson Valley, and southern CT.
There are no hydrologic concerns Saturday night through Thursday
at this time. It is too early to talk specific snowfall amounts
with the potential coastal low early to mid next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Widespread minor to moderate with areas of major coastal flood
potential continues to increase for the Saturday morning high
tide as SE gales build surge to 3-4 ft Fri night, with a wind
shift to SW gales Saturday morning near the time of high tide.
Timing of wind shift will be an important factor for the
magnitude of surge. This scenario, like the Tue night and Dec
18th events, is conducive to water piling up in the Great South
Bay during strongest wind forcing, inhibited from drainage thru
inlets as tide comes in and accompanied by high wave action,
and then shifting this elevated water to the east side of the
bay with the wind shift. Potential for widespread major exits
here. Major flood thresholds looks to be a reasonable worst case
scenario for Jamaica Bay. Elsewhere, widespread minor to locally
moderate flooding is expected.
Along the oceanfront, breaking surf height should be lower than
the last couple of events, but 12-16 ft breaking surf with
similarly elevated water levels, impacting compromised dune
structure will likely result in another round of widespread
dune erosion and scattered overwashes. Localized breaches
possible where dunes have been severely compromised and barrier
beaches are narrow.
Forecast details will be refined over the next 24 hrs.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Saturday
morning for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
CTZ008>011.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for
CTZ009-010.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Saturday for
CTZ011-012.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday for
CTZ012.
NY...Flood Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Saturday
morning for NYZ069>071.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ178.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday for
NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ072-074-075.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ079>081-179.
NJ...Flood Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Saturday
morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
NJZ006-106-108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Saturday for
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for
ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...