000
FXUS61 KOKX 131659
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1159 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure tracks into Southeastern Canada today,
sending a frontal system through the region. An Arctic frontal
passage occurs on Sunday. Another passing offshore low may
produce some snow by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A flood watch for southern Connecticut has been cancelled.

Dense fog has cleared with the passage of a cold front. High
temperatures were reached this morning and are expected to now
cool for the rest of the day. Winds are still expected to remain
gusty into late this afternoon as they turn more southwesterly.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper low pressure will remain, and meander, across Eastern
Canada tonight through Monday. A rather strong shortwave rotates
into the upper low late tonight and moves across the region
Sunday with an Arctic cold front passing through. A chance of
snow showers remains possible mainly Sunday afternoon. With
gusty winds and briefly heavier snowfall possible visibilities
may be quickly reduced as the snow showers move through the
region.

Lows will return closer to seasonable levels in the mid 20s and
lower 30s. Much colder air moves in behind the Arctic front
with temperatures as much as 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

Dry weather returns Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models have been suggesting that the trof over the ern
portion of the country will allow low pres to develop over the
Atlc and potentially produce snow locally. The 12/12Z runs
supported this. It is too far out to hang your hat on any one
soln, but likely PoP for snow on Tue per the blended approach
was accepted and used in the fcst. Based on the 12/12Z
deterministic ECMWF/GFS, did keep things all snow over land, and
went with the colder NBM 50th percentile temp for Tue which were
close to the GFS MOS. There remains the possibility that if a
low does track close enough to the coast, mixing or a changeover
could occur in some areas.

The fcst tapers PoP off on Wed, but the overall timing of the
sys could slow and be Tue ngt into Wed. The GFS suggested this
possibility.

High pres and dry on Thu, then another low may take shape for
Fri. Earlier NBM PoP was about 30-40 percent, and went with
that.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warm front north of the terminals with a cold front set to move
across early this afternoon.

Improvement from IFR or lower east of NYC terminals to VFR by
18-19Z this afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions during
the TAF period.

Winds will be SW near 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt. Gusts
up to 35 kt for latter half afternoon into early evening as
winds become more westerly.

Winds start to decrease late tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief gusts up to 40 kt possible before 00Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: Cold fropa around midday from the NYC metros north/west
and early afternoon east, possibly accompanied by brief snow
showers/IFR cond. W winds 15-25kt G30-35kt, isolated G40kt
possible with fropa.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Chance of snow with IFR possible.

Wednesday: VFR. W-NW winds G25-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. WSW gusts up to near 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warning continues on all waters through tonight, and was
extended on the ocean waters through Sunday. After a lull in the
winds on the non ocean waters Sunday morning, gales may return
Sunday afternoon. With a break of several hours did not want to
extend the gales there attm.

Winds decrease Sun ngt, with all areas likely blw SCA criteria
Mon and most of Tue. SCA may be needed, especially on the
ocean, Wed and possibly Thu with low pres over the Atlc.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic impacts remain possible this morning, especially
across southern Connecticut where a flood watch remains until
15Z. Rainfall has underperformed across much of the area,
however a moderate rainfall is possible across southern
Connecticut with storm totals 1 to 1 1/2 inches are possible.

There are no hydrologic concerns tonight through Thursday at
this time. It is too early to talk specific snowfall amounts
with the potential low passing offshore early to mid next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread moderate coastal flooding with areas of major
coastal flood potential continues for the Saturday morning high
tide with surge to 3-4 ft, with a wind shift to SW gales
Saturday morning near the time of high tide.

With mostly moderate coastal flooding, remainder of high tide
cycles going into early afternoon, upgraded coastal flood
advisories to coastal flood warnings for much of the coastline.
Total water level forecasts increased from previous forecast.

Along the oceanfront, breaking surf height should be lower than
the last couple of events, but 12-16 ft breaking surf with
similarly elevated water levels, impacting compromised dune
structure will likely result in another round of widespread dune
erosion and scattered overwashes. Localized breaches possible
where dunes have been severely compromised and barrier beaches
are narrow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ009-
     010.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ011-
     012.
NY...Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ072-
     074-075-178.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ079>081-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ006-
     106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     NJZ104.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...BR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...