000
FXUS61 KOKX 142230
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
530 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the southwest tonight and Monday. Low
pressure will approach Monday night and pass to the south and
east on Tuesday. High pressure builds from the south and southwest
Wednesday, and slides off the coast the second half of
Thursday. Low pressure develops across the deep south and lifts
northeast and approaches along and off the coast Friday. High
pressure builds next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds were still cranking at 22Z for the coastal areas including
NYC. EWR, JFK, LGA, and ISP were all gusting abv 40 kt. The
wind advy has been extended until 10 pm for these areas due to
better mixing potential invof the water and urban heat.
Elsewhere, the advy has been canceled. No other changes to the
fcst attm.
Cold air filters tonight in behind the arctic frontal passage
that occurred this afternoon. Lows will be in the mid/upper-
teens for northern interior areas while coastal areas will be in
the low-20s. Some areas will be 10 degrees below seasonal
normals. Winds are expected to quickly ramp down tonight
becoming 5-10 mph by sunrise. Things remain dry with high
pressure building southwest.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold airmass remains in place on Monday as high pressure
builds in to the southwest and the southeastern Canada low
gradually tracks farther to the northwest. Temperatures will
remain as much as 10 degrees below normal with highs on Monday
near freezing for the southern coastal half of the CWA and highs
in the upper-20s for the northern interior half of the CWA. Monday
night will be another cold one with widespread lows in the 20s,
some teens for the far interior.
Initial focus will be on snow chances from late Mon night into
Tue as a broad upper trough approaches from the west, and
associated surface low pressure developing off the SE coast
passes just SE of the 40N/70W benchmark Tuesday evening. There
will be some initial light snow late Monday night as a mid
level baroclinic zone and associated frontogenetic forcing lift
NE into the area. Additional light snowfall will occur during
the daytime on Tuesday as the surface low organizes and passes
to the SE aided by a strong jet streak developing aloft.
Currently expecting a storm total snowfall around 2-3 inches,
which will be close to Winter Weather Advisory criteria. There
is still some uncertainty as to the exact amount of snowfall.
While much of the area will keep frozen precipitation, a frozen
rain/snow mix may be possible Tuesday afternoon for
southeastern coastal areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*
* Below normal temperatures through the period. The first prolonged
stretch of below normal temperatures this winter season.
* Quick moving coastal low may bring snow to the region on Friday.
A strong negative NAO and a moderately strong negative AO pattern
through the long term. This will lead a long stretch of below normal
temperatures through the period. This adds stability to the pattern
to a degree. The uncertainty going forward relates to how much any
southern branch features interact with the polar branch of the jet
stream late in the week. Thereafter the region likely gets its first
taste of arctic air, or at least modified arctic air towards the
tail end of the period later next weekend.
As far as temperatures go, stayed fairly close to the NBM for much
of the period. However, late in the period went slightly below the
consensus guidance as the air mass that approaches out of the NW
territories of Canada should have some air of Siberian origin
entrained in it.
With a split in the Polar Vortex and anomalously low heights south
of Hudson Bay Tuesday night into Wednesday look for the coldest air
of the season to arrive. Behind departing low pressure on a NW wind
look for one of the coldest night`s thus far Tuesday night and
certainly the coldest day on Wednesday. For some perspective,
temperatures likely do not get to freezing and may not get out of
the 20s at the coast on Wednesday. Some slight temperature
moderation then likely takes place Thursday and Thursday night in
advance of the next system. There remains a good degree of
uncertainty with a system emerging out of the Gulf and SE states as
a wave along the southern branch of the jet stream pushes northeast.
Model consensus at this point has the low nudging offshore, but
there remain many ensemble members and even some deterministic
global models bringing the system close enough for the potential for
accumulating snow to the region. Some of the more westward guidance
even indicates the possibility of some mixing with rain. With the
teleconnections the way they are and a strong -NAO, and a neutral to
perhaps slightly positive mean trough late in the week, am inclined
at this point to lean slightly towards a more eastward / suppressed
track. Due to the high uncertainty stayed close to consensus / NBM
PoPs and p-types. Based on model sensitivity the outlook for the
late week system will oscillate back a forth a few times in all
likelihood. Regardless of the outcome of the late week system, in
its wake the first air mass of the season of much below normal
temperatures is likely into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes tonight into
early Monday. High pressure builds southwest of the region.
All snow shower activity has just about come to an end, still
some snow shower activity near KGON with some snow flurries at
KISP but this is weakening with time and should be over before
the start of evening. Mainly dry conditions prevail through the
TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will be more westerly behind an arctic front, with wind
speeds of near 20-25 kt with wind gusts of 35 to 40 kt. Winds
subside closer to 30 kt this evening and further diminish late
tonight into Monday. Gusts lower to near 25 kt late evening and
eventually near 20 kt overnight before all gusts diminish. West
winds will be around 10 kt late tonight into early Monday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of end of gusts could be a few hours off compared to TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: VFR.
Monday night: MVFR or lower possible, with chance of snow,
higher chances late.
Tuesday: IFR with snow likely, tapering off in the evening. NW
wind gusts 15-20 kt at night.
Wednesday: VFR. W wind gusts near 20-25 kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of snow and chance of MVFR to IFR
late at night. W wind gusts near 20 kt.
Friday...IFR possible with snow likely. NE-N wind gusts near 20
kt in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
The gale warning remains in effect through much of this evening
for all waters. Once gales end this evening a few hours of SCA
gusts will be possible across the forecast waters, however,
ocean seas remain at SCA levels tonight, and gradually fall
below during Monday.
Small craft advisory conditions should prevail on most of the waters
Tuesday night through Wednesday night in the wake of departing
offshore low pressure. Gale force wind gusts are possible for the
eastern near shore and ocean waters during this time with elevated
ocean seas. Marginal small craft conditions may linger out on the
eastern ocean waters in Thursday, with sub small craft conditions
for the ocean Thursday night into the first half of Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ006-104-106-
108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JMC/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR