000
FXUS61 KOKX 150243
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
943 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the southwest tonight and Monday. Low
pressure will approach Monday night and pass to the south and
east on Tuesday. High pressure builds from the south and southwest
Wednesday, and slides off the coast the second half of
Thursday. Low pressure develops across the deep south and lifts
northeast and approaches along and off the coast Friday. High
pressure builds next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast remains on track. Cold and dry air continues to filer
into the region. High pressure will build to the southwest
tonight. Winds will weaken as the pressure gradient relaxes
through the night.
Lows will be in the mid/upper-teens for northern interior areas
while coastal areas will be in the low-20s. Some areas will be
10 degrees below seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Updated PoPs for Monday night based on recent 18z and some new
00z high resolution data indicated increasing thermal forcing
and jet support for snow to break out earlier. Simulated
reflectivities a band of light snow along a baroclinic zone
lifting northward Monday night with some guidance bringing in
light snow as early as 00-03z. For now have pushed up likely
PoPs for the southern portion of the area after 06z, but this
may need to be sped up further once the rest of the 00z suite
has run. The jet support aloft and middle level thermal forcing
should be enough to overcome any lingering low level dry air.
Otherwise, the cold airmass remains in place on Monday as high
pressure builds in to the southwest and the southeastern Canada
low gradually tracks farther to the northwest. Temperatures will
remain as much as 10 degrees below normal with highs on Monday
near freezing for the southern coastal half of the CWA and highs
in the upper-20s for the northern interior half of the CWA.
Monday night will be another cold one with widespread lows in
the 20s, some teens for the far interior.
Surface low pressure developing off the SE coast Monday night
tracks northward to near the 40N/70W benchmark Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Mainly light snow should continue
overspreading the region late Monday night through day break
Tuesday aided by a strong jet streak developing aloft.
Currently expecting a total snowfall around 2-3 inches, which
will be close to Winter Weather Advisory criteria. There is
still some uncertainty as to the exact amount of snowfall. While
much of the area will keep frozen precipitation, a frozen
rain/snow mix may be possible Tuesday afternoon for southeastern
coastal areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*
* Below normal temperatures through the period. The first prolonged
stretch of below normal temperatures this winter season.
* Quick moving coastal low may bring snow to the region on Friday.
A strong negative NAO and a moderately strong negative AO pattern
through the long term. This will lead a long stretch of below normal
temperatures through the period. This adds stability to the pattern
to a degree. The uncertainty going forward relates to how much any
southern branch features interact with the polar branch of the jet
stream late in the week. Thereafter the region likely gets its first
taste of arctic air, or at least modified arctic air towards the
tail end of the period later next weekend.
As far as temperatures go, stayed fairly close to the NBM for much
of the period. However, late in the period went slightly below the
consensus guidance as the air mass that approaches out of the NW
territories of Canada should have some air of Siberian origin
entrained in it.
With a split in the Polar Vortex and anomalously low heights south
of Hudson Bay Tuesday night into Wednesday look for the coldest air
of the season to arrive. Behind departing low pressure on a NW wind
look for one of the coldest night`s thus far Tuesday night and
certainly the coldest day on Wednesday. For some perspective,
temperatures likely do not get to freezing and may not get out of
the 20s at the coast on Wednesday. Some slight temperature
moderation then likely takes place Thursday and Thursday night in
advance of the next system. There remains a good degree of
uncertainty with a system emerging out of the Gulf and SE states as
a wave along the southern branch of the jet stream pushes northeast.
Model consensus at this point has the low nudging offshore, but
there remain many ensemble members and even some deterministic
global models bringing the system close enough for the potential for
accumulating snow to the region. Some of the more westward guidance
even indicates the possibility of some mixing with rain. With the
teleconnections the way they are and a strong -NAO, and a neutral to
perhaps slightly positive mean trough late in the week, am inclined
at this point to lean slightly towards a more eastward / suppressed
track. Due to the high uncertainty stayed close to consensus / NBM
PoPs and p-types. Based on model sensitivity the outlook for the
late week system will oscillate back a forth a few times in all
likelihood. Regardless of the outcome of the late week system, in
its wake the first air mass of the season of much below normal
temperatures is likely into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds southwest of the region tonight into
Monday. Low pressure develop along the southeast coast Monday
night.
VFR through early Monday evening. There is a chance for light
snow and MVFR conditions after 02-04z Tuesday.
W-WNW winds will continue weakening through 04z. W-WNW winds
around 10 kt or less expected early Monday morning, then 5-10
kt into Monday afternoon. The wind direction shifts to the SW
in the afternoon and evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of light snow Monday evening/night may be off by several
hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: MVFR or lower possible with chance of snow.
Tuesday: IFR with snow likely, tapering off in the evening. NW
wind gusts 15-20 kt Tuesday night.
Wednesday: VFR. W wind gusts near 20-25 kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. W wind gusts near 20 kt.
Friday...IFR with snow possible. NE-N wind gusts near 20 kt in
the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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The gale warning has been replaced with an SCA. On the ocean the
SCA runs through 6 am and on the non ocean waters it runs
through 2 am. Ocean seas should subside below 5 ft by Monday
morning with Sub-SCA conditions prevailing into Tuesday.
Small craft advisory conditions should prevail on most of the waters
Tuesday night through Wednesday night in the wake of departing
offshore low pressure. Gale force wind gusts are possible for the
eastern near shore and ocean waters during this time with elevated
ocean seas. Marginal small craft conditions may linger out on the
eastern ocean waters in Thursday, with sub small craft conditions
for the ocean Thursday night into the first half of Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR/DS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR