000
FXUS61 KOKX 151826
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
126 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the south this afternoon, weakening
late in the afternoon as low pressure approaches from the
southwest tonight, and passes to the south and east on Tuesday.
High pressure builds in from the south and west midweek, sliding
offshore Thursday. Low pressure then develops off the Carolina
coast Thursday night, passing east of the region Friday. High
pressure returns this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains right on track.
This afternoon will remain quiet as high pressure builds nearby
and moves off shore late this afternoon and weakens. Weak low
pressure approaches from the southwest with weak warm advection
will be setting up over the ocean waters just south of the
region, ahead of the low, and strengthening isentropic lift
along with the column becoming saturated. There will be a
slight chance for light snow very late in the day as a cold
airmass remains in place.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Thermal forcing will be increasing further tonight, and pushes
northward as the surface low reaches the southeastern coast by
12Z Tuesday. Again there will be enough cold air in place for
all light snow pushing into the northern portions of the area by
Tuesday morning. There could be as much as 1 to 1 1/2 inches of
snow accumulation by the morning. There are some minor tracking
differences with the low with the NAM moving the center of the
low over the 40/70 benchmark by 21z Tuesday, while the GFS and
ECMWF are slightly farther to the north and west, and weaker
with the low. Warmer air will be moving toward the coastal plain
Tuesday morning into the afternoon as the surface low moves off
the Mid Atlantic coast. Also, there will be some mid level
drying and the precipitation may become lighter as a transition
to a wintry mix and then plain rain occurs. There may be a brief
period of freezing rain during the transition as a warm nose
develops before surface temperatures also rise above freezing.
While total snow accumulations will be borderline for an
advisory, have decided to issue one for most of the area, except
Suffolk County, New London County, and coastal New Haven and
Middlesex Counties where totals may be around an inch. Also
issued for impacts with the timing of the precipitation
overnight, with accumulations likely for the Tuesday morning
commute, and this will be the most significant snowfall in a
while.
The low tracks rather quickly to the east and then northeast
late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the precipitation going
back over to snow before ending.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*
* Below normal temperatures through the period. The first prolonged
stretch of below normal temperatures this winter season.
* Quick moving coastal low may bring snow to the region on Friday.
No significant changes in long term thinking. With a split in
the Polar Vortex and anomalously low heights south of Hudson Bay
into Wednesday look for the coldest air of the season to
arrive. Some slight temperature moderation then likely takes
place Thursday and Thursday night in advance of the next system.
There remains a good degree of uncertainty with a system
emerging out of the Gulf and SE states as a wave along the
southern branch of the jet stream pushes northeast. 00Z guidance
continues to highlight potential for a coastal low to develop
Friday into Saturday, with varying solutions. Model consensus at
this point has the low nudging offshore, but there remain
plenty of ensemble members deepening the low close enough for
the potential for an accumulating snow to fall across the
region. NBM probabilities of at least an inch of snowfall has
crept up on the 01Z run, now over 50% for much of the region,
and near 30% of at least 3". The uncertainty relates to how much
any southern branch features interact with the polar branch of
the jet stream late in the week. Based on model sensitivity the
outlook for the late week system will oscillate back a forth a
few times in all likelihood. Given the lower confidence and that
it remains over 4 days out, have capped PoPs at 60% for now.
Regardless of the outcome of this system, in its wake the
coldest air mass of the season since last February. In fact,
much of the region away from the coast may have to wait until
early next week to see the temperatures climb above freezing.
The coldest day appears to be Saturday, when global ensemble
means prog H500 near 519 dm, or nearly 2 STD below normal, as
the trough axis swings through. At this time, highs on Saturday
top out in the 20s, and perhaps the teens across the interior if
colder guidance is realized. With a blustery NW wind, wind
chill values could fall into the single digits or below zero at
points this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually departs, giving way to an approaching wave
of low pressure tonight into early Tuesday.
VFR conditions expected to continue through this afternoon.
Tonight, snow develops and moves in with conditions lowering to
MVFR to IFR. The snow continues into early Tuesday morning. Snow
is expected to be light initially and become more steady late
tonight. Brief occasional relatively heavier snow could occur
so there is a possibility of LIFR or lower late tonight into
early Tuesday.
The precipitation is forecast to change to a mix of rain and
snow along the coast Tuesday morning into early Tuesday
afternoon. Some terminals could have some freezing drizzle.
Farther inland, terminals such as KHPN and KSWF, are forecast
to remain as snow with precipitation type for the whole event.
W winds near 10 kt will become more SW this afternoon. Wind
direction becomes more variable tonight but will generally
become more NE late tonight into early Tuesday. Then winds
become more northerly Tuesday during the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely tonight into Tuesday.
There could be fluctuation between flight categories.
Timing of change from snow to wintry mix may be off by 1-3
hours.
Occasional sleet will be possible Tuesday.
LIFR possible at times on Tuesday.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday afternoon: Mainly IFR. Snow, tapering off late in the
afternoon. Rain forecast to mix in with the snow near the
coast. Some sleet will be possible as well as light freezing
rain or drizzle. Improvement to MVFR potentially late. Some NW
wind gusts 15-20 kt late.
Tuesday Night: Becoming VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. W wind gusts near 15-20 kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible late Thursday night
with a chance of snow. W wind gusts near 15-20 kt during the
day.
Friday...IFR with snow likely, mainly during the day. Chances
for snow lower at night. NE-N wind gusts near 20 kt in the
afternoon and at night.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts near 25-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
With high pressure building nearby this afternoon winds and
seas across the forecast waters will remain below advisory
levels through tonight.
Low pressure approaches from the southwest this evening and
deepens and passes south and east during Tuesday. By late in the
day Tuesday gusts on the ocean waters, and possibly into New
York Harbor will be near SCA levels, then wind gusts will be
borderline at SCA levels across all the waters during most of
Tuesday night. Ocean seas on the outer ocean waters west of Fire
Island Inlet may approach 5 feet Tuesday night.
Departing low pressure and a building high on Wednesday allows
small craft advisory conditions to develop on all waters by the
evening under increasing westerly flow. Gales possible on the
ocean and eastern nearshore waters Wed night into Thu. Winds
lower Thursday with sub SCA conditions returning to non ocean
waters early in the day, and on the ocean by Thu night.
Sub SCA conditions redevelop late Friday or Friday night, and
may persist on all waters through the weekend under NW flow.
Gales on the ocean will be possible once again Sat night into
Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Tuesday for CTZ005>007-009.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Tuesday for NYZ067>071.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for NYZ072>075-176>179.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Tuesday for NJZ002-004-103-104.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Tuesday for NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET