000
FXUS61 KOKX 191041
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
541 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes well southeast of the area today. Arctic high
pressure then builds in through the weekend. High pressure then
remains south of the region on Monday. A frontal system is then
expected to impact the area Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated the forecast to delay the onset of snow chances for some
areas. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged.
An expansive upper trough over the Great Lakes will have energy
rounding its southern periphery. This will help create an inverted
trough at the surface as an extension of a low pressure system
well offshore today. Model guidance continues to place this
inverted trough and best lift to our south, mainly near southern
NJ. There will however be enough moisture and lift for the
likelihood of some snow across most of the forecast area. This
will develop generally west to east across the area this morning
and end late day into early evening.
Model QPF remains light with only 0.1 to 0.2 inches across southern
zones, and up to around 0.1 inches for most spots north of the city.
It`s appearing more likely that most spots will probably end up
below advisory criteria as chances of snow/liquid equivalent ratios
of at least 15:1 in the advisory areas are diminishing as the best
lift remains to our south and thermal profiles are a little too warm.
Will however leave the advisory up as the late day/evening commute
will probably be impacted to some extent. Additionally, there is
still a chance that the inverted trough ends up a little farther
north than modeled as models typically have difficulty nailing down
their locations - but again, this would now be occurring 12-24 hours
from the 00z model initialization time, so chances are that they
won`t be too far off.
Snow chances end by late evening with partial clearing for the
overnight hours and somewhat breezy. Low temperatures in the teens
for most spots with wind chills late at night from around 0 to 5
above.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough axis shifts through the Northeast on Saturday into
Saturday night. Doesn`t appear to be enough moisture combined with
this cyclonic flow, so dry weather expected. Remaining colder than
normal with high temperatures only in the lower and middle 20s.
It`ll be breezy, with wind chills warming to only around 10 above
during the afternoon hours. Wind chills on Saturday night then fall
to 0 to 5 below for areas north of the city, and 0 to 5 above most
elsewhere as it remains breezy due to the relatively tight pressure
gradient over the area as high pressure builds in from the west.
The high pressure ridge axis won`t quite reach the eastern seaboard
by late Sunday night, so it remains breezy during the day Sunday.
Expect sunny conditions, but not as cold as Saturday as the boundary
layer warms in the wake of the trough aloft. Still, wind chills
average around 20 in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will pass south of the region on Monday. Expect dry
conditions Monday and Monday night.
The high slides east of the region on Tuesday. This will allow the
next storm system to impact the region, mainly Tuesday night through
Thursday as a frontal system approaches. A cold front is expected to
approach from the north, gradually stalling over the region on
Wednesday, then finally pushing south of the area on Thursday. There
remains quite a bit of uncertainty this far out. This includes start
time and precipitation type. Some areas may start off as snow or a
rain/snow mix Tuesday night before changing over to all rain by
Wednesday morning. One important player will be the position of
strong high pressure moving southeast across southern Canada into
northern New England Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures gradually moderate through the week, with highs on
Monday in the middle and upper 30s. Tuesday, highs will be in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. By Wednesday and Thursday, highs will
be in the 40s across the entire region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A broad area of low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley,
with a secondary low developing and passing east of the Mid Atlantic
coast today. This will place the forecast area on the northern edge
of an area of mainly light snow.
Initially, VFR with conditions lowering after 10Z as light snow or
flurries moves in from the SW, overspreading the NYC, Lower Hudson
Valley and LI terminals through the late morning hours. For these
terminals, generally looking at MVFR cigs with IFR vsbys. The snow
will be mainly light but there could be pockets of steadier snow
during the late morning and afternoon hours. For the CT terminals,
conditions are likely to be better, especially at KGON where
conditions are forecast to stay in the MVFR category. The snow
tapers off in the early evening with conditions improving to VFR.
Light and variable winds to start will become light NE toward
daybreak. Winds will then increase to around 10kt during the day
Friday, veering to the N by early evening, then NW after 00Z.
Second half the night will feature gusts up to 20 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely with flight category changes due to snow
falling across the area on Friday.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night...Improving to VFR. N winds around 10 kt become NW 10-
15kt G20kt.
Saturday-Sunday...Mainly VFR. N-NW wind gusts 25-30kt.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance to chance of rain/snow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds begin to pick up late today with SCA conds expected on all
waters tonight - staring first on the ocean, then reaching the
remaining waters after midnight. SCA conds then continue through
Saturday afternoon. A tighter pressure gradient forms over the waters
Saturday night, solid SCA conds, and a chance of gales over the
ocean. Have issued a gale watch on the ocean as such. SCA conds
otherwise would likely continue into Sunday. There could also be
freezing spray from time to time starting late tonight.
Generally looking at sub-SCA conditions on the area waters on
Monday. Seas on the ocean may briefly build to 5 ft late Monday
night, mainly on the eastern ocean zone, with a return to sub SCA
conditions by Tuesday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
NYZ071>075-176-178.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening for NYZ078>081-177-179.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST
Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night
for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC