000
FXUS61 KOKX 201135
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
635 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through the weekend and lasts through
Monday. Unsettled weather is expected Tuesday through Friday
as a series of frontal boundaries impact the region.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The forecast is mainly on track. Only adjustments made were to hourly temperatures and dewpoints over the next few hours. High pressure builds in slowly today at the surface as an upper trough axis shifts through. Moisture deepens in the low to mid levels this afternoon, but for most locations this is after the trough axis has already shifted through. Thinking is that associated NVA and a downsloping NW surface flow precludes snow showers, and at most a few flurries occur. Will keep flurries out of the forecast for now. Moisture through the mid levels then diminish overnight with mostly clear sky. Cold and breezy through the period with wind chills rising from the single digits early on to only around 10 above for most spots. Wind chills then fall back into the single digits for coastal spots, and around 0 to 5 below inland.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Deep-layered ridging occurs Sunday through Monday with the ridge axis shifting off the eastern seaboard Monday afternoon. Little, if any cloud cover through at least Monday morning with perhaps some over-the-ridge cirrus streaming in during the afternoon. The core of the coldest air will have shifted east, so moderating high temperatures both days, and wind chills won`t be as cold during the day and night periods as compared to today and tonight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period will feature a period of unsettled weather and above normal temperatures returning. Not much change to the previous forecast and stuck fairly close to the NBM. A weak surface trough, or cold front, with little moisture, moves into the region early Tuesday and becomes nearly stationary during the day. Warm advection then sets up later Tuesday and continues through the week as the frontal boundary remains in the vicinity. A series of southern stream shortwaves will bring waves of low pressure along the front Tuesday into Wednesday, with another Thursday into Friday. A rather warm airmass for this time of year will move into the region towards the end of the week, with temperatures rising to 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Precipitation will be mostly rain across the region, with a Snow or a mix of rain and snow inland Tuesday into early Wednesday before the warmer air arrives. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Strong high pressure builds east from the Plains through the weekend. VFR. NW winds gradually increase today with speeds 15-20kt. Gusts between 25-30kt can be expected. Can not rule out a few occasional higher gusts during the afternoon hours. Gusts may be more occasional outside of the NYC terminals. Wind speeds and gusts gradually diminish after midnight. A gusty NW flow can be expected again on Sunday, but not as strong as what is expected today. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Can not rule out a gusts over 30 kt this afternoon into early evening. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday...VFR. N-NW wind gusts 20-25kt. Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR or lower in any rain/snow showers. Wednesday...MVFR or lower possible in rain. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... SCA conds continue on all waters through tonight with a gusty NW wind. The pressure gradient remains similar, perhaps a little weaker on Sunday. Same goes for the boundary layer winds. Marginal SCA conds therefore for the ocean waters. After collaboration with the surrounding offices, will extend the SCA on the ocean through at least 18z Sunday with higher confidence that both winds and seas are both still reaching criteria during the first half of the day. Not enough confidence on the remaining waters to extend the SCA beyond Saturday night. The combination of temperatures, wind speed and wind direction will lead to a chance of light vessel ice accumulation now through Sunday, primarily on the ocean and Long Island Sound. Best overall chances will be on the ocean waters tonight. The pressure gradient then weakens Sunday into Monday with a high pressure ridge shifting in. Sub-advisory conditions expected during this period. Winds then pick up Monday afternoon and night with more of a WSW flow developing. Forecast winds may be a little too strong at this point, but cannot rule out some 25kt gusts at least on the ocean by day`s end. Eastern ocean waters may also build up to 5 ft by the end of Monday night. Conditions otherwise fall below SCA levels early Tuesday as a weak cold front becomes nearly stationary near the area waters, Winds and seas are then forecast to remain below advisory levels on all the waters late Tuesday through Wednesday. SCA conditions may return towards the late part of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JC NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...BC MARINE...BC/JC HYDROLOGY...BC/JC