000
FXUS61 KOKX 201747
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1247 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through the weekend and lasts through
Monday. Unsettled weather is expected Tuesday through Friday
as a series of frontal boundaries impact the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fcst remains on track. High pressure builds in slowly today
at the surface as an upper trough axis shifts through. Moisture
deepens in the low to mid levels this afternoon, but for most
locations this is after the trough axis has already shifted
through. Thinking is that associated NVA and a downsloping NW
surface flow precludes snow showers, and at most a few flurries
occur. Will keep flurries out of the forecast for now. Moisture
through the mid levels then diminish overnight with mostly clear
sky.
Cold and breezy through the period with wind chills rising from the
single digits early on to only around 10 above for most spots. Wind
chills then fall back into the single digits for coastal spots, and
around 0 to 5 below inland.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layered ridging occurs Sunday through Monday with the ridge
axis shifting off the eastern seaboard Monday afternoon. Little, if
any cloud cover through at least Monday morning with perhaps some
over-the-ridge cirrus streaming in during the afternoon. The core of
the coldest air will have shifted east, so moderating high
temperatures both days, and wind chills won`t be as cold during the
day and night periods as compared to today and tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will feature a period of unsettled weather and
above normal temperatures returning.
Not much change to the previous forecast and stuck fairly close to
the NBM. A weak surface trough, or cold front, with little
moisture, moves into the region early Tuesday and becomes nearly
stationary during the day. Warm advection then sets up later Tuesday
and continues through the week as the frontal boundary remains in
the vicinity. A series of southern stream shortwaves will bring
waves of low pressure along the front Tuesday into Wednesday, with
another Thursday into Friday.
A rather warm airmass for this time of year will move into the
region towards the end of the week, with temperatures rising to 10
to 15 degrees above normal. Precipitation will be mostly rain
across the region, with a Snow or a mix of rain and snow inland
Tuesday into early Wednesday before the warmer air arrives.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strong high pressure builds east from the Plains through the weekend.
VFR. NW winds gradually increase today with speeds 15-20 kt.
Gusts between 25-30 kt can be expected. Can not rule out a few
occasional higher gusts during the afternoon hours of 30 to 35
kt. Gusts may be more occasional outside of the NYC terminals.
Wind speeds and gusts gradually diminish and die off for most
outlying terminals, but are still expected to gust to around 25
kt for the metro terminals, though they may become more
occasional. Gusts are once again expected for all terminals on
Sunday morning, though they will likely be slightly lower than
they were for Saturday, in the 20 to 25 kt range.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected. Can not rule out a gusts
over 30 kt this afternoon into early evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon...VFR. N-NW wind gusts 20-25kt.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR or lower in any rain/snow
showers.
Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible in rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conds continue on all waters through tonight with a gusty NW
wind. The pressure gradient remains similar, perhaps a little weaker
on Sunday. Same goes for the boundary layer winds. Marginal SCA
conds therefore for the ocean waters. After collaboration with the
surrounding offices, will extend the SCA on the ocean through at
least 18z Sunday with higher confidence that both winds and seas are
both still reaching criteria during the first half of the day. Not
enough confidence on the remaining waters to extend the SCA beyond
Saturday night.
The combination of temperatures, wind speed and wind direction will
lead to a chance of light vessel ice accumulation now through
Sunday, primarily on the ocean and Long Island Sound. Best overall
chances will be on the ocean waters tonight.
The pressure gradient then weakens Sunday into Monday with a high
pressure ridge shifting in. Sub-advisory conditions expected during
this period. Winds then pick up Monday afternoon and night with more
of a WSW flow developing. Forecast winds may be a little too strong
at this point, but cannot rule out some 25kt gusts at least on the
ocean by day`s end. Eastern ocean waters may also build up to 5 ft
by the end of Monday night.
Conditions otherwise fall below SCA levels early Tuesday as a
weak cold front becomes nearly stationary near the area waters,
Winds and seas are then forecast to remain below advisory levels
on all the waters late Tuesday through Wednesday. SCA
conditions may return towards the late part of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC