000
FXUS61 KOKX 202021
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
321 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slowly builds in from the west through Sunday. The
high shifts offshore late Monday, and a frontal boundary
approaches from the north and west behind it, stalling nearby
into late week as several waves of low pressure impact the
region.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A slug of fairly deep moisture across nrn New England will track swd
thru the cwa this eve. Strong subsidence will be a limiting factor
for snow, but the moisture is robust per model time heights and
saturation down to around 2500 ft per the GFS. Factor in the radar
returns from VT and MA, and will include a chance of flurries in the
fcst thru this eve. Clearing thereafter and there could be few to no
clouds by sunrise.

NW winds will result in low wind chills but keep actual temps from
full radiating potential, so the NBM was used. Wind chills in the
single digits on either side of zero depending on location.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Outside of some possible flattening fair wx cu during the day,
mainly clr thru Sun ngt. A gradual diminishing of winds in the aftn
as flow aloft weakens a little. The NBM seamed reasonable for high
temps in the mixed environment.

Winds decrease further Sun ngt, and decoupling is expected,
particularly for the protected outlying areas. As a result, went
with the NBM50 percent to account for an expected colder outcome in
this regime.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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*Key Points*

 * Gradual warming trend next week, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
   above normal by Friday.

 * Stalled boundary allows several waves of low pressure to impact
   the region, bringing periods of rain mid to late week.

Ridging shifts east and the surface high slides offshore to start
the period. The region then remains on the northwestern periphery of
stubborn ridging anchored over the Eastern US as troughing sets up
over the West. In between, a moist SW flow from the Gulf will eject
several waves of low pressure along a stalled boundary toward the
region, the first Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps additional
ones Thursday and again Friday. Ahead of this, the region begins to
thaw to start the week, with temperatures climbing above the
freezing mark Monday as a moderating southwesterly flow develops on
the backside of the high. Gradual warming trend then through the
week looks to peak toward Friday, when forecast highs are progged in
the lower 50s along the coast.

Despite moving through the climatologically coldest period of the
year, ptypes next week likely remain much more wet than white, with
soundings profiles indicating sufficient mild air at the surface and
aloft to keep the vast majority of the precip falling as rain.
Global ensemble means prog a widespread 1 to 2 inches of
precipitation through next weekend, which occurring over several
days, should help to preclude any significant hydro concerns. Given
the inherent uncertainty at this point though, capped PoPs at low
likely (60%), otherwise, NBM was generally followed.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Strong high pressure builds east from the Plains through the weekend.

VFR. NW winds speeds 15-20 kt with gusts between 25-30 kt can be
expected into the evening. Can not rule out a few occasional higher
gusts during the afternoon hours of 30 to 35 kt early this evening.
Gusts may be more occasional outside of the NYC terminals this
evening. Wind speeds and gusts gradually diminish and die off for
most outlying terminals, but are still expected to gust to around 25
kt for the metro terminals, though they may become more occasional.
Gusts are once again expected for all terminals on Sunday morning,
though they will likely be slightly lower than they were for
Saturday, in the 20 to 25 kt range.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected. Can not rule out a gusts over 30
kt this afternoon into early evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon...VFR. N-NW wind gusts 20-25kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR or lower in any rain/snow
showers.

Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible in rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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A sca remains for all waters thru tngt. Some diminishing of the
winds on Sun, so the protected waters were kept out of the sca for
now. Winds will be close though. On the ocean, winds will be a bit
stronger, and seas will likely linger aoa 5 ft thru the day.

Increasing WSW flow late Monday may lead to SCA conditions
developing on at least the ocean Monday night into Tuesday with 25
kt gusts and 5 ft seas. Conditions lower below SCA criteria early
Tuesday, and are then forecast to remain below advisory levels on
all waters into late next week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR