000
FXUS61 KOKX 202301
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
601 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure slowly builds in from the west through Sunday, shifting offshore Monday. Behind it, a frontal boundary approaches from the north and west, stalling nearby into late week as several waves of low pressure impact the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A few flurries being reported in parts of southern CT late this afternoon as a surface trough sags south. While no accumulation or impacts expected from this activity, maintained the mention of a potential for flurries everywhere until 6Z tonight. Otherwise, dry, cold, and blustery conditions persist, with wind chills in the single digits for most. Forecast remains on track. A slug of fairly deep moisture across nrn New England will track swd thru the cwa this eve. Strong subsidence will be a limiting factor for snow, but the moisture is robust per model time heights and saturation down to around 2500 ft per the GFS. Factor in the radar returns from VT and MA, and will include a chance of flurries in the fcst thru this eve. Clearing thereafter and there could be few to no clouds by sunrise. NW winds will result in low wind chills but keep actual temps from full radiating potential, so the NBM was used. Wind chills in the single digits on either side of zero depending on location.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Outside of some possible flattening fair wx cu during the day, mainly clr thru Sun ngt. A gradual diminishing of winds in the aftn as flow aloft weakens a little. The NBM seamed reasonable for high temps in the mixed environment. Winds decrease further Sun ngt, and decoupling is expected, particularly for the protected outlying areas. As a result, went with the NBM50 percent to account for an expected colder outcome in this regime. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... *Key Points* * Gradual warming trend next week, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday. * Stalled boundary allows several waves of low pressure to impact the region, bringing periods of rain mid to late week. Ridging shifts east and the surface high slides offshore to start the period. The region then remains on the northwestern periphery of stubborn ridging anchored over the Eastern US as troughing sets up over the West. In between, a moist SW flow from the Gulf will eject several waves of low pressure along a stalled boundary toward the region, the first Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps additional ones Thursday and again Friday. Ahead of this, the region begins to thaw to start the week, with temperatures climbing above the freezing mark Monday as a moderating southwesterly flow develops on the backside of the high. Gradual warming trend then through the week looks to peak toward Friday, when forecast highs are progged in the lower 50s along the coast. Despite moving through the climatologically coldest period of the year, ptypes next week likely remain much more wet than white, with soundings profiles indicating sufficient mild air at the surface and aloft to keep the vast majority of the precip falling as rain. Global ensemble means prog a widespread 1 to 2 inches of precipitation through next weekend, which occurring over several days, should help to preclude any significant hydro concerns. Given the inherent uncertainty at this point though, capped PoPs at low likely (60%), otherwise, NBM was generally followed. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Strong high pressure builds east from the Plains through the weekend. VFR. NW winds speeds 15-20 kt with gusts between 25-30 kt can be expected into the evening. Can not rule out a few occasional higher gusts during the afternoon hours of 30 to 35 kt early this evening. Gusts may be more occasional outside of the NYC terminals this evening. Wind speeds and gusts gradually diminish and die off for most outlying terminals, but are still expected to gust to around 25 kt for the metro terminals, though they may become more occasional. Gusts are once again expected for all terminals on Sunday morning, though they will likely be slightly lower than they were for Saturday, in the 20 to 25 kt range. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. Can not rule out a gusts over 30 kt this afternoon into early evening. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday afternoon...VFR. N-NW wind gusts 20-25kt. Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR or lower in any rain/snow showers. Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible in rain. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A sca remains for all waters thru tngt. Some diminishing of the winds on Sun, so the protected waters were kept out of the sca for now. Winds will be close though. On the ocean, winds will be a bit stronger, and seas will likely linger aoa 5 ft thru the day. Increasing WSW flow late Monday may lead to SCA conditions developing on at least the ocean Monday night into Tuesday with 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas. Conditions lower below SCA criteria early Tuesday, and are then forecast to remain below advisory levels on all waters into late next week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR NEAR TERM...JMC/DR SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...JP MARINE...JMC/DR HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR