discussion on 2024-01-20

000
FXUS61 KOKX 202339
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
639 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure slowly builds in from the west through Sunday,
shifting offshore Monday. Behind it, a frontal boundary
approaches from the north and west, stalling nearby into late
week as several waves of low pressure impact the region.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --A few flurries being reported in parts of southern CT late this
afternoon as a surface trough sags south. While no accumulation
or impacts expected from this activity, maintained the mention
of a potential for flurries everywhere until 6Z tonight.
Otherwise, dry, cold, and blustery conditions persist, with wind
chills in the single digits for most. Forecast remains on
track.

A slug of fairly deep moisture across nrn New England will
track swd thru the cwa this eve. Strong subsidence will be a
limiting factor for snow, but the moisture is robust per model
time heights and saturation down to around 2500 ft per the GFS.
Factor in the radar returns from VT and MA, and will include a
chance of flurries in the fcst thru this eve. Clearing
thereafter and there could be few to no clouds by sunrise.

NW winds will result in low wind chills but keep actual temps
from full radiating potential, so the NBM was used. Wind chills
in the single digits on either side of zero depending on
location.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Outside of some possible flattening fair wx cu during the day,
mainly clr thru Sun ngt. A gradual diminishing of winds in the
aftn as flow aloft weakens a little. The NBM seamed reasonable
for high temps in the mixed environment.

Winds decrease further Sun ngt, and decoupling is expected,
particularly for the protected outlying areas. As a result, went
with the NBM50 percent to account for an expected colder
outcome in this regime.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --*Key Points*

 * Gradual warming trend next week, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
   above normal by Friday.

 * Stalled boundary allows several waves of low pressure to impact
   the region, bringing periods of rain mid to late week.

Ridging shifts east and the surface high slides offshore to
start the period. The region then remains on the northwestern
periphery of stubborn ridging anchored over the Eastern US as
troughing sets up over the West. In between, a moist SW flow
from the Gulf will eject several waves of low pressure along a
stalled boundary toward the region, the first Tuesday into
Wednesday, and perhaps additional ones Thursday and again
Friday. Ahead of this, the region begins to thaw to start the
week, with temperatures climbing above the freezing mark Monday
as a moderating southwesterly flow develops on the backside of
the high. Gradual warming trend then through the week looks to
peak toward Friday, when forecast highs are progged in the lower
50s along the coast.

Despite moving through the climatologically coldest period of
the year, ptypes next week likely remain much more wet than
white, with soundings profiles indicating sufficient mild air at
the surface and aloft to keep the vast majority of the precip
falling as rain. Global ensemble means prog a widespread 1 to 2
inches of precipitation through next weekend, which occurring
over several days, should help to preclude any significant hydro
concerns. Given the inherent uncertainty at this point though,
capped PoPs at low likely (60%), otherwise, NBM was generally
followed.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Strong high pressure builds east from the Mid Mississippi
Valley through Sunday.

VFR.

Winds remain from the NW through the forecast period, anywhere
from 300 to 320 true. Gusts continue through late Sunday
afternoon, and diminish a little overnight, possibly briefly
ending toward morning at a few outlying terminals. Gusts then
increase in the morning, however, gusts will be lower than
Saturday. Both sustained winds and gusts diminish through Sunday
afternoon.


    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night-Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible late day in rain.

Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible in rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A sca remains for all waters thru tngt. Some diminishing of the
winds on Sun, so the protected waters were kept out of the sca for
now. Winds will be close though. On the ocean, winds will be a bit
stronger, and seas will likely linger aoa 5 ft thru the day.

Increasing WSW flow late Monday may lead to SCA conditions
developing on at least the ocean Monday night into Tuesday with 25
kt gusts and 5 ft seas. Conditions lower below SCA criteria early
Tuesday, and are then forecast to remain below advisory levels on
all waters into late next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC/DR
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR