000
FXUS61 KOKX 211442
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
942 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds in from the west through tonight,
shifting offshore Monday. Behind it, a frontal boundary
approaches from the north, stalling nearby into late week as
several waves of low pressure impact the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track, with dew points slightly lower than
forecast. Have adjusted hourly dew points to reflect this.
Previous discussion follows.
Deep-layered ridging occurs through tonight. Sunny with breezy
conditions during the day. High temperatures will be below
normal, but at least warmer than yesterday. After wind chills in
the single digits to around zero early on, afternoon wind
chills rise into the teens to around 20 this afternoon.
Winds become lighter tonight as pressure gradient weakens, with some
decoupling anticipated late tonight in some of the outlying areas.
This, along with a clear sky, will allow for temperatures to fall to
around 10 for these spots where radiational cooling is typically
stronger. Low temperatures will be in the teens for most areas, and
low 20s for NYC metro. Minimum wind chills will be 5-10 colder than
the low temperatures for most part.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure center slowly shifts east, reaching the coast of North
Carolina Monday afternoon. Not as cold this time around as winds
shift to the SW. Highs near normal, mostly 35-40. Clouds thicken
Monday night ahead of a cold front that reaches northern NY by the
end of the night as a confluent upper flows allows an area of high
pressure to shift SE through central Canada. The clouds will promote
low temperatures that will actually be a little warmer than what`s
normal for this time of the year.
For Tuesday into Tuesday night, the cold front to our north weakens
as the Canadian high pressure system shifts more easterly than SE.
The front also encounters some weak warm advection arriving from the
SW as shortwave energy allows for weak low pressure to strengthen
slightly as it tracks from around Iowa to the Great Lakes Region.
This results in a nearly stationary front with enhanced moisture
convergence running across the forecast area, with models generally
placing the best combination of moisture and lift across northern
and eastern areas. Certainly close enough however for precip chances
across the entire forecast area both day and night.
Thermal profiles look just warm enough such that anything that falls
Tuesday morning is probably rain. After some wet-bulbing, precip
type gets tricky starting in the afternoon in addition to an
elevated warm layer pushing in from the SW. Further complicating the
forecast is a period of potential low level cold advection over the
eastern zones during the night as the stationary front sags south
and winds flip NE to E. Won`t go into details, but currently have
chances of freezing rain, sleet and snow for inland areas. Rain
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term period and stuck fairly
close to the NBM.
The long term period will remain rather unsettled with a frontal
boundary remaining near the region from the middle of the week
through Friday as several waves of low pressure pass nearby the
region. Its difficult to nail down the timing of each wave through
this period, but right now it appears the first wave impacts the
area Wednesday and a second wave moving into the area for Thursday
and Friday. At this time, it appears that the front pushes south of
the region for the weekend. While the first part of the weekend
appears to be out best chance of drier weather, will continue to
maintain some slight chance POPs through this period in case the
front remains close enough for precip to continue into the weekend.
Temperatures through the long term gradually warm to a good 10-15
degrees above normal by Friday with highs in the upper 40s and lower
50s. Otherwise, we are generally looking at highs in the 40s each
day through the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strong high pressure builds in from the west today.
VFR.
Winds remain from the W-NW through much of the TAF period.
Gusts into the middle and upper 20s can be expected through late
afternoon. Both sustained winds and gusts diminish late this
afternoon/early evening, with the gusts ending around or shortly
after sunset. Winds then become more westerly Monday morning
with speeds less than 10kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected thru 18Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible late day in rain.
Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible in rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA on all ocean waters will go through midnight tonight, but
might be able to be canceled in the evening. For the non-ocean
waters, the SCA has been extended through this afternoon. Again,
there`s a chance that it could be dropped sooner in the
afternoon, particularly over western sections.
A period of relatively tranquil conditions then follows Monday
morning with a weaker pressure gradient over the waters. Winds pick
up in the afternoon and evening, with SCA conds possible on the
ocean in the evening. Winds and seas otherwise subside during
Tuesday.
Generally looking at sub-SCA conditions on the area waters Wednesday
through Saturday, however conditions may come close to small craft
levels Thursday into Friday as a wave of low pressure passes
nearby.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/JP
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/JMC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC