discussion on 2024-01-21

000
FXUS61 KOKX 212318
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
618 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure slowly builds in from the west through tonight,
shifting offshore Monday. Behind it, a frontal boundary approaches
from the north and west, stalling nearby into late week as
several waves of low pressure impact the region.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds are beginning to lighten as the pressure gradient relaxes,
though still seeing speeds occasionally top 20 to 25 mph. This
should decrease further moving through the evening, perhaps
becoming light and vrb in spots overnight. Forecast remains on
track and previous discussion follows.

Tranquil, but cold weather continues during the near term as
the forecast area will be situated between a departing upper
level trough and and incoming upper level ridge over the mid-
West. These features will move east, with the upper level ridge
axis just to the west by daybreak Monday. The ridge looks to
weaken as it moves east. At the surface, the center of high
pressure moves over the area.

With clear skies and winds diminishing thanks to the lack of a
pressure gradient, tonight will be a good night for radiational
cooling in the outlying areas. Expect lows in the single digits
above zero here. Elsewhere, lows in the teens to low 20s are in
store.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The center of high pressure pushes off the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday
morning as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. A cold front from the
Great Lakes region approaches Monday night as the high continues to
drift east into the Atlantic.

Southwesterly flow develops Monday and thus warm advection will
bring in warmer temperatures. However, high temperatures should top
out right around normal for this time of year, with high in the
middle 30s.

With clouds increasing Monday night with the approach of the cold
front, along with continued warm advection, lows will be much warmer
than previous nights. Expect lows to range from the middle 20s to
lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*

 * Gradual warming trend into late week, temperatures 10 to 15
   degrees above normal by Friday.

 * Stalled boundary allows several waves of low pressure to impact
   the region, bringing rounds of precipitation mid to late week.

The region will remain on the northern and northwestern periphery of
stubborn ridging anchored over the Eastern US much of the week as
troughing sets up over the West. In between, a moist flow from the
Gulf will eject a couple waves of low pressure along a stalled
boundary toward the region, the first Tuesday into Wednesday, and
another Thursday into Friday. In addition, the moderating flow on
the backside of the high helps to thaw out the region from the
recent cold spell. In fact, the region may not get below freezing
again this week after Wednesday morning. A gradual warming trend
looks to peak Friday, when forecast highs are progged in the 50s, or
upwards of 15 degrees above normal for late January.

Frontal boundary sags toward the region from the north and west by
Tuesday, and an initial weak wave of low pressure passes to the north
of the region into Wednesday. With lingering cold air in the low
levels aided by a 1040 mb high over SE Canada, this may introduce
ptype issues, particularly for interior locales. While QPF is
expected to be light, profile soundings indicate a warm tongue
developing aloft. Did introduce wintry mix pytpes using blended
thicknesses of GFS/ECM/NAM, though confidence in types, timing, and
amounts remains low at this stage.

Behind this, little time to dry out as another wave looks to impact
the region Thursday into Friday with additional precipitation,
helping to finally drag the boundary south of the region by the
start of the weekend. Despite moving through the climatologically
coldest period of the year, the bulk of this precipitation appears
to fall as rain in the milder regime. Global ensemble means prog a
widespread 1 to 2 inches of precipitation through late week, which
occurring over several days, should help to preclude any significant
hydro concerns. Given the inherent uncertainty at this point though,
continued to cap PoPs at low likely (65%), otherwise, NBM was
generally followed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds south of the region tonight through Monday,
moving off the Mid Atlantic coast late in the day.

VFR thru the TAF period.

NW winds diminish tonight, then back to the W then SW on Monday.
Speeds on Monday generally less than 10kt until 18-20Z.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts of 20-25kt possible through 01Z Monday.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night...VFR.

Tuesday...VFR. A slight chance of MVFR late with a chance of a
wintry mix inland and rain along the coast.

Wednesday-Friday...MVFR Wednesday, then IFR likely with a chance
of MVFR. Periods of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds on all waters diminish tonight. SCA continues on the
ocean waters until midnight with lingering 25 kt gusts and seas
remaining near 5 ft.

Thereafter, winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through
the day Monday. An increasing southwesterly flow will mean SCA
possible on all waters with gusts around 25 kt Monday night.
Waves build to 5 to 7 ft on the ocean. Winds and waves diminish
late Monday night, but remain above SCA through daybreak
Tuesday on the ocean.

Sub SCA conditions return to all waters early Tuesday, and appear to
remain so through at least Thursday. SCA conditions may return Thu
night or Friday with increasing seas on the ocean from a passing
area of low pressure.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353-
     355.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DR
NEAR TERM...JP/DR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR