discussion on 2024-01-21

000
FXUS61 KOKX 220233
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
933 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure slowly builds in from the west through tonight,
shifting offshore Monday. Behind it, a frontal boundary
approaches from the north and west, stalling nearby into late
week as several waves of low pressure impact the region.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds continues to diminish, with occasional gusts near the
shore, as high pressure builds to the west and the pressure
gradient relaxes. Winds likely become light and variable in
spots overnight. Forecast remains on track and previous
discussion follows. Skies were clear and seen from observations
and satellite imagery, and lowered cloud cover through the
overnight.

Tranquil, but cold weather continues during the near term as
the forecast area will be situated between a departing upper
level trough and and incoming upper level ridge over the mid-
West. These features will move east, with the upper level ridge
axis just to the west by daybreak Monday. The ridge looks to
weaken as it moves east. At the surface, the center of high
pressure moves over the area.

With clear skies and winds diminishing thanks to the lack of a
pressure gradient, tonight will be a good night for radiational
cooling in the outlying areas. Expect lows in the single digits
above zero here. Elsewhere, lows in the teens to low 20s are in
store.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --The center of high pressure pushes off the Mid Atlantic Coast
Monday morning as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. A cold
front from the Great Lakes region approaches Monday night as the
high continues to drift east into the Atlantic.

Southwesterly flow develops Monday and thus warm advection will
bring in warmer temperatures. However, high temperatures should
top out right around normal for this time of year, with high in
the middle 30s.

With clouds increasing Monday night with the approach of the
cold front, along with continued warm advection, lows will be
much warmer than previous nights. Expect lows to range from the
middle 20s to lower 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --*Key Points*

 * Gradual warming trend into late week, temperatures 10 to 15
   degrees above normal by Friday.

 * Stalled boundary allows several waves of low pressure to impact
   the region, bringing rounds of precipitation mid to late week.

The region will remain on the northern and northwestern
periphery of stubborn ridging anchored over the Eastern US much
of the week as troughing sets up over the West. In between, a
moist flow from the Gulf will eject a couple waves of low
pressure along a stalled boundary toward the region, the first
Tuesday into Wednesday, and another Thursday into Friday. In
addition, the moderating flow on the backside of the high helps
to thaw out the region from the recent cold spell. In fact, the
region may not get below freezing again this week after
Wednesday morning. A gradual warming trend looks to peak Friday,
when forecast highs are progged in the 50s, or upwards of 15
degrees above normal for late January.

Frontal boundary sags toward the region from the north and west
by Tuesday, and an initial weak wave of low pressure passes to
the north of the region into Wednesday. With lingering cold air
in the low levels aided by a 1040 mb high over SE Canada, this
may introduce ptype issues, particularly for interior locales.
While QPF is expected to be light, profile soundings indicate a
warm tongue developing aloft. Did introduce wintry mix pytpes
using blended thicknesses of GFS/ECM/NAM, though confidence in
types, timing, and amounts remains low at this stage.

Behind this, little time to dry out as another wave looks to
impact the region Thursday into Friday with additional
precipitation, helping to finally drag the boundary south of the
region by the start of the weekend. Despite moving through the
climatologically coldest period of the year, the bulk of this
precipitation appears to fall as rain in the milder regime.
Global ensemble means prog a widespread 1 to 2 inches of
precipitation through late week, which occurring over several
days, should help to preclude any significant hydro concerns.
Given the inherent uncertainty at this point though, continued
to cap PoPs at low likely (65%), otherwise, NBM was generally
followed.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds south of the region through Monday, moving
off the Mid Atlantic coast late in the day.

VFR thru the TAF period.

NW winds continue to diminish, with occasional gusts in the NYC
metro area ending. Winds then back to the W then SW on Monday.
Speeds on Monday generally less than 10kt until 18-20Z.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night...VFR.

Tuesday...VFR. A slight chance of MVFR late with a chance of a
wintry mix inland and rain along the coast.

Wednesday-Friday...MVFR Wednesday, then IFR likely with a chance
of MVFR. Periods of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Gusts on the near shore and outer ocean waters continue near 25
kt and increased gusts by a few knots. However, with high
pressure building to the west winds and gusts are expected to
diminish , with gusts falling below SCA levels by 05Z. The SCA
on the ocean waters remains in effect until 05Z. Winds on all
waters continue to diminish overnight.

Thereafter, winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through
the day Monday. An increasing southwesterly flow will mean SCA
possible on all waters with gusts around 25 kt Monday night.
Waves build to 5 to 7 ft on the ocean. Winds and waves diminish
late Monday night, but remain above SCA through daybreak Tuesday
on the ocean.

Sub SCA conditions return to all waters early Tuesday, and appear to
remain so through at least Thursday. SCA conditions may return Thu
night or Friday with increasing seas on the ocean from a passing
area of low pressure.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DR
NEAR TERM...JP/DR/MET
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR