000
FXUS61 KOKX 221122
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will shift offshore late today and
tonight. Behind it, a frontal boundary approaches from the north and
west, stalling nearby into late week as several waves of low
pressure impact the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning with just minor adjustments to
reflect current observations.
The region will be under the influence of high pressure with its
center just off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This high will gradually
slide eastwards through the period. As it does, the flow aloft
becomes more zonal. Temperatures do warm a bit today, with much of
the region getting into the middle and upper 30s. The morning will
start off mostly sunny, however clouds starts to increase
late in the day.
Tonight, a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. The front
should stay far enough away from the region to keep the region dry.
but clouds will continue to lower and thicken. Lows tonight will
fall into the middle and upper 20s. The NYC metro area is expected
to remain in the lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front well north of the region starts to sink southward
towards the region from the north and west on Tuesday. In
addition an initial weak wave of low pressure along the front
will pass north of the region into Wednesday. With lingering
cold air in the low levels aided by a 1040 mb high over SE
Canada, this may introduce ptype issues, particularly for
interior locales. While QPF is expected to be light, profile
soundings do indicate some warmer air aloft. Will continue to
keep a wintry mix in the forecast, although confidence in types,
timing, and amounts remains low at this stage.
Chance POPs will remain in the forecast through much of Wednesday,
before increasing Wednesday night with the approach of another wave
of low pressure. Temperatures will gradually rise through the day
Wednesday, with any left over frozen precip changing to all rain
Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500mb ridge overhead on Thursday will gradually flatten as it shifts
east, leaving us with a zonal flow by Saturday. Surface low pressure
rides along the northern periphery of this ridge Thursday into
Friday, remaining weak without support from aloft. This low is
progged to pass to our north on Friday and drag a cold front through
the forecast area late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Periods
of rain anticipated through early Friday with chances of rain
diminishing through the rest of the day. Looks like we should get a
break from rain chances during Saturday with the zonal flow aloft
and weak high pressure in place. Temperatures Thursday through
Saturday will be above normal, with Friday being the warmest with
highs in the 50s.
For Sunday, shortwave energy shifting through the Ohio Valley and
Mid Atlantic Regions helps generate surface low pressure, emerging
off the Mid Atlantic coast. GFS,ECMWF and Global Canadian with their
respective ensemble means track this low fairly well to our SE and
south of the 40N/70W benchmark with some timing differences. We may
be close enough to the northern extent of precipitation. Have chance
PoPs in the forecast for now. Precip type Sunday into Sunday night
is simplified to rain, snow or a mix of the two with the assumption
that the low passes well to our south and a marginally cold enough
air mass will be in place.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control.
VFR. NW-W winds at 10kt or less back more W-SW this afternoon and
increase slightly. WSW winds at around 10kt continue through this
evening before diminishing overnight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday...VFR AM. A chance of MVFR in the afternoon and night a
chance of a wintry mix inland and rain along the coast.
Wednesday-Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.
Friday... Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Chance of improvement to VFR
in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria today. An increasing
southwesterly flow will result in the return of SCA conditions
tonight. Right now, the highest confidence for SCA conditions to
occur will be on the ocean waters where gusts to around 25-30
kt are expected along with seas building to 5 to 7 ft. Winds and
waves diminish late Monday night, however some SCA conditions
are expected to linger into Tuesday morning on the far eastern
ocean waters.
For the non-ocean waters, lower confidence of SCA conditions
developing. Will hold off on any SCA for now, however can not rule
out a brief period 2-3 hours of 25kt gusts possible.
Sub SCA conditions return to all waters mid morning on Tuesday, and
appear to remain so through at least Thursday morning. There`s
a chance that ocean seas climb to 5 ft by the end of the day
Thursday, but it would be more likely Thursday night into Friday
as an area of low pressure passes through..-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC