000
FXUS61 KOKX 221815
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
115 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will shift offshore late today and
tonight. Behind it, a frontal boundary approaches from the north and
west, stalling nearby into late week as several waves of low
pressure impact the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fcst remains on track. The region will be under the
influence of high pressure with its center just off the Mid
Atlantic Coast. This high will gradually slide eastwards through
the period. As it does, the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Temperatures do warm a bit today, with much of the region
getting into the middle and upper 30s. The morning will start
off mostly sunny, however clouds starts to increase late in the
day.
Tonight, a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. The front
should stay far enough away from the region to keep the region dry.
but clouds will continue to lower and thicken. Lows tonight will
fall into the middle and upper 20s. The NYC metro area is expected
to remain in the lower 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front well north of the region starts to sink southward
towards the region from the north and west on Tuesday. In
addition an initial weak wave of low pressure along the front
will pass north of the region into Wednesday. With lingering
cold air in the low levels aided by a 1040 mb high over SE
Canada, this may introduce ptype issues, particularly for
interior locales. While QPF is expected to be light, profile
soundings do indicate some warmer air aloft. Will continue to
keep a wintry mix in the forecast, although confidence in types,
timing, and amounts remains low at this stage.
Chance POPs will remain in the forecast through much of Wednesday,
before increasing Wednesday night with the approach of another wave
of low pressure. Temperatures will gradually rise through the day
Wednesday, with any left over frozen precip changing to all rain
Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500mb ridge overhead on Thursday will gradually flatten as it shifts
east, leaving us with a zonal flow by Saturday. Surface low pressure
rides along the northern periphery of this ridge Thursday into
Friday, remaining weak without support from aloft. This low is
progged to pass to our north on Friday and drag a cold front through
the forecast area late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Periods
of rain anticipated through early Friday with chances of rain
diminishing through the rest of the day. Looks like we should get a
break from rain chances during Saturday with the zonal flow aloft
and weak high pressure in place. Temperatures Thursday through
Saturday will be above normal, with Friday being the warmest with
highs in the 50s.
For Sunday, shortwave energy shifting through the Ohio Valley and
Mid Atlantic Regions helps generate surface low pressure, emerging
off the Mid Atlantic coast. GFS,ECMWF and Global Canadian with their
respective ensemble means track this low fairly well to our SE and
south of the 40N/70W benchmark with some timing differences. We may
be close enough to the northern extent of precipitation. Have chance
PoPs in the forecast for now. Precip type Sunday into Sunday night
is simplified to rain, snow or a mix of the two with the assumption
that the low passes well to our south and a marginally cold enough
air mass will be in place.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds offshore today, while a weak warm front
approaches form the southwest tonight into Tuesday.
Mainly a VFR forecast with the exception of KSWF with MVFR/IFR
conditions developing Tuesday afternoon in a light wintry mix.
The NYC and KHPN terminals could see some MVFR ceilings in
light rain late Tuesday afternoon/early evening.
SW winds around 10 kt at the coast this afternoon, but weaker
at the inland terminals. Winds gradually veer to the W late
tonight at less than 10 kt, then become light N-NW Tuesday
afternoon/early evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon...Chance of MVFR at the coastal terminals and
KHPN with a chance of light rain. For KSWF, MVFR to IFR likely
developing in a light wintry mix.
Tuesday Night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of light rain at the
coast and IFR at the inland terminals. A wintry mix could get
down to the CT coast. Confidence in precipitation type is low
at this time.
Wednesday-Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.
Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Chance of improvement to
VFR in the afternoon.
Saturday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria today. An increasing
southwesterly flow will result in the return of SCA conditions
tonight. Right now, the highest confidence for SCA conditions to
occur will be on the ocean waters where gusts to around 25-30
kt are expected along with seas building to 5 to 7 ft. Winds and
waves diminish late Monday night, however some SCA conditions
are expected to linger into Tuesday morning on the far eastern
ocean waters.
For the non-ocean waters, lower confidence of SCA conditions
developing. Will hold off on any SCA for now, however can not rule
out a brief period 2-3 hours of 25kt gusts possible.
Sub SCA conditions return to all waters mid morning on Tuesday, and
appear to remain so through at least Thursday morning. There`s
a chance that ocean seas climb to 5 ft by the end of the day
Thursday, but it would be more likely Thursday night into Friday
as an area of low pressure passes through..
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
Tuesday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC