000
FXUS61 KOKX 231853
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
153 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will pass through the region today and
tonight, then move north of the area on Wednesday, with another
disturbance following behind it Thursday into Friday. An area of low
pressure develops over the Deep South into the weekend, likely
tracking near the region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect across portions of
the interior until 10am Wed*
- Made Orange, Putnam and Western Passaic start slightly
earlier, 11AM with otherwise no other winter hazard changes.
- Noted in updated WSW that wintry precipitation today may be
more patchy in coverage and more wintry precipitation for
tonight.
Temperatures running a few degrees higher than forecast but
upstream, higher elevations already getting some reports of
wintry precipitation. The wintry precipitation today will be
along the higher elevations mostly. Otherwise, plain rain looks
to be main precipitation type. Column cools down in the
afternoon, so may see more snow and sleet come into the
precipitation mix late this afternoon into early this evening.
High temperatures forecast near 35 to 40 and temperatures are
within this range going into start of the afternoon so would
expect a slight decline in temperature for mid to late afternoon
with wet bulb cooling. Warmer temperatures near 40 along the
coast and NYC while farther north will be more in the mid 30s. The
wet bulb cooling for parts of the interior is expected to
result in more wintry precipitation this afternoon.
The frontal boundary north of the region approaches through the
afternoon as a backdoor cold front as high pressure moves across
Quebec. As the front sags southward into the region, temperatures
aloft will cool from NE to SW on a northerly flow. As a result,
expect the rain/freezing rain to transition to a wintry mix (more
snow than sleet/freezing rain) around sunset. The wintry mix should
make it down through the Lower Hudson Valley/interior NJ and to the
CT coast. Bufkit soundings showing that NYC Metro/Long Island
should remain rain for most if not all of the period.
Between 06-09z Wednesday, Temps aloft then start to rise again,
so where we have that snow/wintry mix occurring, a transition
to an icy mix or fzra is again likely.
The lift is not particularly strong with this event, so mainly light
pcpn is expected throughout. This should keep any snowfall accums
less than an inch with the rates too low. The main hazard will be
where the pockets of -fzra develop, leading to icy spots.
Tonight temperatures fall into the lower and middle 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
By Wednesday morning the frontal boundary starts to lift north
again. We are expecting temperatures both aloft and at the surface
to rise, resulting in any frozen precipitation to change over to
plain rain by about mid morning. Will keep the Winter weather
advisory in effect through the Wed morning rush hour commute with
hazardous conditions expected from the overnight wintry
precipitation. POPs remain rather light Wednesday morning as
the first wave of precipitation lifts north. POPs increase once
again late Wednesday afternoon as another wave approaches. This
second wave is expected to be just plain rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*Key Points*
* Gradual warming trend into late week, temperatures 10 to 15
degrees above normal by Friday.
* Multiple rounds of precipitation with several waves of low
pressure impacting the region through the weekend.
Region remains on the northern periphery of broad ridging over the
Eastern US to start the period. Frontal boundary meanders near the
region on Wednesday night, gradually lifting back north by Thursday
as weak low pressure exits the New England coast. Low pressure is
progged to pass to our north and drag a cold front through the area
Thursday night into Friday morning, with periods of rain through
then.
A brief reprieve then looks likely thru Saturday with zonal flow and
weak high pressure temporarily in place. Global guidance is in
fairly good agreement in another shortwave spurring low pressure
development over the Deep South by Saturday, eventually emerging off
the Mid Atlantic coast toward the latter half of the weekend. While
confidence is low at this stage, it`s not out of the question that
ptypes could become a factor with this system locally should
Canadian high pressure build in quick enough to allow a marginally
cold enough air mass to support it.
Despite the multiple periods of precipitation, the extended does not
necessarily look like a washout. Ensemble means prog total
precipitation thru early next week at or under 2 inches, which
occurring over several days, should help to preclude any significant
hydro concerns. In addition, the moderating flow on the backside of
the high helps to thaw out the region from the recent cold spell. A
gradual warming trend looks to peak Friday, when forecast highs are
progged in the 50s, or upwards of 15 degrees above normal for late
January.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front sags south, meeting up with warm front from
the southwest and creating a nearly stationary front over the
region tonight into Wednesday.
Guidance has been much too quick in lowering ceilings this
afternoon as high pressure builds out of southeast Canada and
is overrun by a warmer, moist airmass to the SW. This will set
the stage for some very light, spotty precipitation through
tonight. Ceilings will likely drop across the the interior this
afternoon and at the coast later tonight. Most of the terminals
will lower to the IFR category, however, confidence is lower
across the NYC terminals. A wintry mix inland will work its way
down to the CT coast this evening, but once again this will
generally be light and spotty. For the NYC and KISP terminals,
sleet could briefly mix in.
Light NW-N winds this afternoon will likely go light and
variable for a time before taking on a E/NE direction this
evening. Winds will then gradually veer to SE on Wednesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments for the timing of category changes is highly likely
due to a complex forecast. Sleet could mix in overnight in what
will generally be spotty light rain. Temperatures are forecast
to remain above freezing.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon-Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR. Periods of rain
mostly from Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Improvement to VFR by
afternoon.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at
night.
Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas continue to diminish on the area waters with just
small crafts left up on the eastern ocean zone from Moriches Inlet
to Montauk Point until 1pm this afternoon where some higher
seas linger. Otherwise, rest of waters are below SCA criteria.
After 1pm, all waters are forecast to be below SCA criteria.
Sub-SCA conditions expected through at least Thursday and
perhaps into the weekend with a weak pressure gradient in place.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005-
006.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ002-
103.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...BC/JM
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR