000
FXUS61 KOKX 232108
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
408 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary moves south into the region tonight. The frontal
boundary remains within the area through Wednesday and then moves
north as a warm front Wednesday night. Low pressure passes to
our north and west Thursday night through Friday, dragging a
cold front through early Friday. Brief high pressure passes
through the area Friday night through early Saturday. Low
pressure then approaches from the south and west and impacts the
area late Saturday through early Monday. High pressure likely
builds in thereafter.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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* Winter weather advisory expanded to include Northern Middlesex
and Northern New London. It goes until 10AM Wednesday.
First round of wintry precipitation has not materialized as
much as previously thought. The second round of wintry
precipitation still set to fall tonight into early Wednesday
morning across the interior. The timing of freezing rain 06Z Wed
until 15Z Wed. The coverage of freezing rain could very well be
more patchy and limited to the higher elevations.
There is uncertainty with the temperatures and precipitation
but with forecasts of at least chance freezing rain and light
ice accumulation, this was enough of a warrant to keep winter
weather advisory and expand it to include northern Middlesex CT
and northern New London CT.
A frontal boundary moves southward into the area tonight. The front
moving from northern New England southward into the local region
looks to come to a halt. Strong high pressure remains centered SE
Canada into northern New England.
Some low to mid level drying shown in forecast atmospheric profiles
becomes more saturated later this evening. With temperatures in this
layer still below freezing, look for a mix of precip to vary from
snow across interior, to mix of rain and snow farther SE towards
coast. Some sleet could very well mix in also.
Warm nose conveyed by model BUFKIT soundings moves in overnight with
a few degrees above 0 degree C shown within a layer between 750 and
900mb.
At the surface, lows temperatures tonight a blend of 75 percent raw
consensus and 25 percent NBM. Lows range along the coast near
33 to 34 degrees F and near 30 to 32 to the north across the
interior. So, with warm nose moving in, rain precip type along
the coast with freezing rain getting more into the wintry mix
across the interior especially higher elevations.
Lift forcing appears to be rather weak with dampened mid level
shortwave in forecast shown to move across late tonight into early
Wednesday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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With the frontal boundary remaining in the region, precipitation
remains in the forecast. However, slight mid level ridging
shown in the forecast models. Vertical lift limited even more.
Model precipitation forecasts very little additional liquid
equivalent shown 12-18Z Wednesday.
Then an approaching wave of low pressure will allow for the
front to move north as a warm front Wednesday night. This will
allow for precipitation to transition everywhere to plain rain.
The rain becomes likely going into Wednesday night. Vertical
forcing increases with more mid level positive vorticity
advection.
High temperatures forecast Wednesday a blend of NBM and MOS
consensus with further manual refinements, ranging mainly from
the low to mid 40s. Temperatures forecast to lower into early
Wednesday evening to mid 30s to lower 40s and then increase
during the night after passage of warm front. Temperatures and
dewpoints rise well into the 40s later Wednesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term period.
The period starts out with a frontal boundary to our north and high
pressure centered offshore to our south and east. A deep SW/W flow
will allow for advection of warm, moist air. Rain will be ongoing
early Thursday and is expected to continue through at least Thursday
night. Although moderate rain is possible at times, no hydrologic
issues are expected. Under an inch is forecast from Thursday through
Thursday night and it will fall over 24 hours. The NBM currently has
a 30 to 50 percent chance of reaching 1 inch over that 24 hour
period. The frontal boundary does look to sag south a bit during the
day on Thursday, but then by Thursday night into Friday morning a
wave low pressure will move along the boundary and pass to our north
and west. This will drag a cold front through early Friday. The
ongoing warming trend that started last weekend will continue until
Friday. Highs on Friday Are currently forecast to be in the low 50s
to low 60s.
High pressure then briefly builds in allowing for one of the only
dry periods during the long term. Meanwhile, low pressure forms and
strengthens over the Deep South. This low will lift towards the area
and likely bring impacts late Saturday through early Monday. The
latest guidance shows the event starting as all rain and then
switching over to snow from northwest to southeast as cold air wraps
into the system.
Thereafter high pressure likely builds in and dry conditions are
expected late Monday through Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weak cold front sags south, meeting up with warm front from
the southwest and creating a nearly stationary front over the
region tonight into Wednesday.
Guidance has been much too quick in lowering ceilings this
afternoon as high pressure builds out of southeast Canada and
is overrun by a warmer, moist airmass to the SW. This will set
the stage for some very light, spotty precipitation through
tonight. Ceilings will likely drop across the the interior this
afternoon and at the coast later tonight. Most of the terminals
will lower to the IFR category, however, confidence is lower
across the NYC terminals. A wintry mix inland will work its way
down to the CT coast this evening, but once again this will
generally be light and spotty. For the NYC and KISP terminals,
sleet could briefly mix in.
Light NW-N winds this afternoon will likely go light and
variable for a time before taking on a E/NE direction this
evening. Winds will then gradually veer to SE on Wednesday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments for the timing of category changes is highly likely
due to a complex forecast. Sleet could mix in overnight in what
will generally be spotty light rain. Temperatures are forecast
to remain above freezing.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon-Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR. Periods of rain
mostly from Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Improvement to VFR by
afternoon.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at
night.
Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A weak pressure gradient will keep conditions on the waters
below SCA criteria with relatively light winds and seas of less
than 3 ft. Conditions increase late Wednesday night for both
winds and seas with increasing SCA potential. However, non-
ocean zones are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.
The forecast has wind gusts getting to 25 kt and ocean seas
building to 5 ft between Moriches and Montauk late Wednesday
night. With timing and areal uncertainty of SCA conditions, held
off on issuance of SCA for this timeframe.
Winds and waves look to remain below SCA criteria Thursday through
much of Saturday. Low pressure then impacts the area, with potential
for SCA criteria late Saturday through Monday night. At this time,
peak gusts looks to be Sunday night, with 25 to 30 kt gusts on the
ocean waters and eastern Sound, and around 25 kt elsewhere. Waves on
the ocean may also reach 6 to 8 feet by Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Around 0.4 to 0.5 inch of rain forecast Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for
CTZ005>008.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ002-
103.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JT
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/JT
HYDROLOGY...JM/JT