000
FXUS61 KOKX 240830 CCA
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
330 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stalled front over the area early this morning will push north
as a warm front later today. A cold front moves east of the area
on Friday followed by high pressure Friday night into Saturday.
Another low pressure then approaches from the south and west
Saturday night and moves nearby Sunday into early Monday. High
pressure then likely builds in through Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
* A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of northeast
NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and interior Southern CT.
We have a stalled frontal boundary over the CWA this morning helping
light rain/snow showers continue. For now, rain is occurring in most
coastal locations with some sleet mixed in, in some areas. LIDAR
soundings from the NY Mesonet have shown Port Jefferson and East
Hampton over the last several hours with below freezing temperatures
in the entire column, except for near the surface where it is above
freezing. That explains why here at the office in Upton, NY, we have
seen rain with little frozen bits. Port Jefferson`s sounding has
warmed somewhat over the last hour. A few hours ago, Suffern`s LIDAR
sounding in Rockland county was showing near freezing surface
temperatures with the column from the surface up to 800mb hugging
the 0C line. A frozen mix was likely occurring with this, but the
column has now also warmed to just above freezing, similar to Port
Jefferson. Snow is still being observed for our farther interior
locations. All precipitation that is occurring is mostly light in
nature, with low accumulations.
An approaching low to our west and high pressure to our west and
south building north and east will help the stationary front push
north as a warm front. With southerly flow returning, all areas
seeing snow or a wintry mix will transition to pure rain by 10AM.
There is still a window of concern for freezing rain as warmer air
begins to filter in. Precipitation in interior locations could
transition to rain for an hour or two before surface temperatures
rise above freezing. Its a small window, but still worth watching.
For this reason, the Winter Weather Advisory will remain in place.
Snow coating untreated roads in interior locations will also be a
concern before temperatures warm.
There may be a lull in precipitation late morning to early afternoon
before another wave of rain overspreads across the area mid-late
afternoon west to east. Temperatures will continue to warm with
increased southerly flow and highs in the low/mid-40s, warmer for
southern coastal locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warmer temperatures and wet weather will continue into Wednesday
night. A continuing southerly flow will advect in more moisture
which could lead to PWATs topping off around 1.25-1.5" according to
the latest 00Z guidance. This is greater than the max moving average
of 1.2" for this time of year. Despite anomalous moisture, the heavy
rain threat does not look too significant as we lack strong forcing
for heavy rainfall. This will likely be a prolonged light to
moderate rainfall event Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Forecasted rainfall totals currently sit at around an inch.
An approaching low will bring a cold front Friday morning which
should lead to gradual clearing of rainfall west to east either
early or late Friday morning.
Friday could see highs in the low-50s thanks to warmer air being
advected in.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes were made to the long term and the NBM was used for
this period.
*Key Points*
*A frontal system passes east of the area on Friday followed by dry
weather briefly returning Friday night through Saturday.
*Another low pressure and associated frontal system should impact
the area Sunday into early Monday. Uncertainty remains on the exact
track of the system, but model consensus continues to signal this
being mainly a rain event.
*After temperatures in the 50s Friday, a cooling trend begins this
weekend with temperatures below normal early next week.
Low pressure passes to our NW on Friday dragging a cold front across
the region. Most of the rain associated with this system should be
pushing north and east of the area in the morning with dry
conditions returning in the afternoon.
High pressure then briefly builds in allowing for one of the only
dry periods during the long term. Meanwhile, low pressure forms and
strengthens over the Deep South. This low will lift towards the area
and likely bring impacts late Saturday through early Monday. The
latest guidance continues to show a mainly rain event before a mix
or changeover to snow northwest to southeast as cold air wraps into
the system. This will all be dependent on the track of the low and
placement of high pressure across southeast Canada. The latest NBM
indicates about a 15-30 percent chance (highest southwest) for
seeing an inch or more of rain in 24 hours for this event. The low
moves offshore later Monday with high pressure building over the
region through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A frontal boundary stalls near the region this morning before slowly
lifting back NE as a warm front this evening and tonight.
Varying flight categories early this morning with MVFR to IFR for
some Lower Hudson Valley and coastal CT terminals. VFR conditions
continue to prevail for NYC metro and Long Island terminals.
Confidence remains low with the exact timing when ceilings will
lower for the NYC and Long Island terminals. It appears more likely
to occur after 12z. A wintry mix inland and CT coast with some
spotty light rain towards NYC metro and Long Island. Sleet could
briefly mix in down towards the NYC metro. Any precip should become
spotty after 12z.
Rain will overspread the region late this afternoon and evening with
conditions becoming IFR. LIFR conditions are possible tonight.
A light NE flow early this morning will gradually veer to E and SE
through this evening. Winds will shift towards the S and SW once the
warm front lifts to the north overnight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments expected for timing of flight category changes through
the TAF period.
Sleet could briefly mix in with any spotty light rain through day
break.
The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR haze potential forecast is
YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Tonight-Thursday Night...Mainly IFR with periods of rain.
Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Improvement to VFR by afternoon.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at night.
Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will keep conditions on the waters below
SCA criteria with relatively light winds and seas of less than 3 ft.
SCA conditions develop late Wednesday night on ocean waters for both
persistent gusts of 25-27kts and waves of 5ft. Non-ocean zones are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds.
Winds and waves look to remain below SCA criteria Thursday
Marginal SCA conditions are possible on Friday on the ocean east of
Moriches Inlet as seas could reach 5 ft. Otherwise, conditions
should remain below SCA levels Friday through Saturday night. Low
pressure then impacts the area, with potential for SCA criteria
Sunday through Monday night. At this time, peak gusts looks to be
Sunday night, with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Waves on the ocean may also
reach 6 to 8 feet by Sunday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Around an inch of total rainfall is expected Wednesday into Thursday
night. There are no significant hydrologic concerns at this
time.
No hydrologic impacts are currently expected Thursday through
early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
CTZ005>008.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NJZ002-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS