000
FXUS61 KOKX 241437
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
937 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front over the area early this morning will push north
as a warm front this evening into Thursday. A cold front moves
east of the area on Friday followed by high pressure Friday
night into Saturday. Another low pressure then approaches from
the south and west Saturday night and moves nearby Sunday into
early Monday. High pressure then likely builds in through
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for portions of
northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and interior Southern CT
through 10 am.
The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made
to account for current trends.
We have a stalled frontal boundary over the CWA this morning helping
light rain/snow showers continue. Snow is still being observed
for our farther interior locations. All precipitation that is
occurring is mostly light in nature, with low accumulations.
An approaching low to our west and high pressure to our west and
south building north and east will help the stationary front push
north as a warm front. With southerly flow returning, all areas
seeing snow or a wintry mix will transition to pure rain by 10AM.
There is still a window of concern for freezing rain as warmer air
begins to filter in. Precipitation in interior locations could
transition to rain for an hour or two before surface temperatures
rise above freezing. Its a small window, but still worth watching.
For this reason, the Winter Weather Advisory will remain in place.
Some untreated roads may also be snow covered across interior S
CT from earlier snowfall.
There may be a lull in precipitation late morning to early afternoon
before another wave of rain overspreads across the area mid-late
afternoon west to east. Temperatures will continue to warm with
increased southerly flow and highs in the low/mid-40s, warmer for
southern coastal locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warmer temperatures and wet weather will continue into Wednesday
night. A continuing southerly flow will advect in more moisture
which could lead to PWATs topping off around 1.25-1.5" according to
the latest 00Z guidance. This is greater than the max moving average
of 1.2" for this time of year. Despite anomalous moisture, the heavy
rain threat does not look too significant as we lack strong forcing
for heavy rainfall. This will likely be a prolonged light to
moderate rainfall event Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Forecasted rainfall totals currently sit at around an inch.
An approaching low will bring a cold front Friday morning which
should lead to gradual clearing of rainfall west to east either
early or late Friday morning.
Friday could see highs in the low-50s thanks to warmer air being
advected in.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes were made to the long term and the NBM was used for
this period.
*Key Points*
*A frontal system passes east of the area on Friday followed by dry
weather briefly returning Friday night through Saturday.
*Another low pressure and associated frontal system should impact
the area Sunday into early Monday. Uncertainty remains on the exact
track of the system, but model consensus continues to signal this
being mainly a rain event.
*After temperatures in the 50s Friday, a cooling trend begins this
weekend with temperatures below normal early next week.
Low pressure passes to our NW on Friday dragging a cold front across
the region. Most of the rain associated with this system should be
pushing north and east of the area in the morning with dry
conditions returning in the afternoon.
High pressure then briefly builds in allowing for one of the only
dry periods during the long term. Meanwhile, low pressure forms and
strengthens over the Deep South. This low will lift towards the area
and likely bring impacts late Saturday through early Monday. The
latest guidance continues to show a mainly rain event before a mix
or changeover to snow northwest to southeast as cold air wraps into
the system. This will all be dependent on the track of the low and
placement of high pressure across southeast Canada. The latest NBM
indicates about a 15-30 percent chance (highest southwest) for
seeing an inch or more of rain in 24 hours for this event. The low
moves offshore later Monday with high pressure building over the
region through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stationary frontal boundary over the area will gradually lift
north tonight into Thursday.
Varying flight categories this morning with IFR for Lower
Hudson Valley and coastal CT terminals and some MVFR beginning
to develop near NYC terminals. Conditions should continue to
lower to MVFR at NYC terminals with MVFR to IFR elsewhere into
the afternoon.
Some spotty precipitation is possible through 15z and a brief
wintry mix is possible for interior terminals. Rain should then
overspread the region late this afternoon into the evening with
conditions prevailing IFR at all terminals. LIFR conditions are
possible tonight, especially for outlying terminals.
A light NE flow early this morning will gradually veer to E and
SE through this evening. Winds will shift towards the S and SW
once the warm front lifts to the north overnight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments expected for timing of flight category changes through
the TAF period. IFR conditions could come in 1-3 hours sooner
than forecast this afternoon.
Timing of prevailing rain this afternoon/evening may be off by
1-3 hours.
The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR haze potential forecast is
YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday...Mainly IFR with periods of rain.
Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Improvement to VFR by afternoon.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at night.
Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will keep conditions on the waters below
SCA criteria with relatively light winds and seas of less than 3 ft.
SCA conditions develop late Wednesday night on ocean waters for both
persistent gusts of 25-27kts and waves of 5ft. Non-ocean zones are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds.
Winds and waves look to remain below SCA criteria Thursday
Marginal SCA conditions are possible on Friday on the ocean east of
Moriches Inlet as seas could reach 5 ft. Otherwise, conditions
should remain below SCA levels Friday through Saturday night. Low
pressure then impacts the area, with potential for SCA criteria
Sunday through Monday night. At this time, peak gusts looks to be
Sunday night, with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Waves on the ocean may also
reach 6 to 8 feet by Sunday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Around an inch of total rainfall is expected Wednesday into Thursday
night. There are no significant hydrologic concerns at this
time.
No hydrologic impacts are currently expected Thursday through
early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
CTZ005>008.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NJZ002-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS