discussion on 2024-01-24

000
FXUS61 KOKX 241817
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
117 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A stalled front over the area pushes north as a warm front late
tonight into Thursday. A cold front moves east of the area on
Friday followed by high pressure Friday night into Saturday.
Another low pressure then approaches from the south and west
Saturday night and moves nearby Sunday into early Monday. High
pressure then likely builds in through Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With temperatures into the mid and upper 30s, and no further
reports of freezing or frozen precipitation, the winter weather
advisory for portions of northeastern NJ, the Lower Hudson
Valley and interior Southern CT was allowed to expire.

Fog was widespread across the region, with the warmer air
moving into the area, and will remain through at least today,
probably into Thursday. The fog was locally dense across
Connecticut, and a special weather statement was issued through
11 AM EST.

With the fog, and the stalled frontal boundary increased cloud
cover to 100% through the day.

An approaching low to our west, and high pressure to our west
and south building north and east, will help the stationary
front push north as a warm front. With southerly flow returning,
all areas have transitioned to all rain.

A lull in the precipitation will increase from the west as
another wave of low pressure, producing rain, moves into the
area mid to late afternoon west to east. Temperatures will
continue to warm with increased southerly flow and highs in the
lower to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warmer temperatures and wet weather will continue into
Wednesday night. A continuing southerly flow will advect in more
moisture which could lead to PWATs topping off around 1.25-1.5"
according to the latest 00Z guidance. This is greater than the
max moving average of 1.2" for this time of year. Despite
anomalous moisture, the heavy rain threat does not look too
significant as we lack strong forcing for heavy rainfall. This
will likely be a prolonged light to moderate rainfall event
Wednesday night into Thursday night. Forecasted rainfall totals
currently sit at around an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes were made to the long term and the NBM was
used for this period.

*Key Points*

*A frontal system passes east of the area on Friday followed by dry
weather briefly returning Friday night through Saturday.

*Another low pressure and associated frontal system should
impact the area Sunday into early Monday. Uncertainty remains on
the exact track of the system, but model consensus continues to
signal this being mainly a rain event.

*After temperatures in the 50s Friday, a cooling trend begins
this weekend with temperatures below normal early next week.

Low pressure passes to our NW on Friday dragging a cold front
across the region. Most of the rain associated with this system
should be pushing north and east of the area in the morning with
dry conditions returning in the afternoon.

High pressure then briefly builds in allowing for one of the
only dry periods during the long term. Meanwhile, low pressure
forms and strengthens over the Deep South. This low will lift
towards the area and likely bring impacts late Saturday through
early Monday. The latest guidance continues to show a mainly
rain event before a mix or changeover to snow northwest to
southeast as cold air wraps into the system. This will all be
dependent on the track of the low and placement of high pressure
across southeast Canada. The latest NBM indicates about a 15-30
percent chance (highest southwest) for seeing an inch or more
of rain in 24 hours for this event. The low moves offshore later
Monday with high pressure building over the region through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain over the area
through tonight, then lift northward Thursday morning.

Conditions have rapidly deteriorated over the last 2-3 hours
with the NYC terminals falling to LIFR, and most of the
surrounding terminals IFR or lower. Expecting these these low
conditions to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon/evening and through the night with low cigs and vsbys
restrictions.

Conditions are likely to start improving Thursday morning as the
front starts to lift northward, however improvement may be slow
through the morning hours.

Some light rain/drizzle is expected this evening and overnight,
however not expecting a lot of improvement with the
precipitation.

A light and variable or light SE flow is expected through this
evening. Winds will eventually shift towards the S and SW as
the warm front lifts to the north.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected for unexpected flight category changes
through the TAF period.

Timing of prevailing rain this afternoon/evening may be off by
1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday...Mainly IFR with periods of rain.

Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Improvement to VFR by afternoon.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at night.

Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE G20-25kt.

Monday...MVFR or lower. Chance of light snow

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --With warmer air over the forecast waters fog remains
widespread, and added areas of dense fog to the weather. With
near shore visibilities near 1 statue mile, and marine
visibilities likely to remain 1 nm or less, especially as dew
points increase into the mid 40 this evening, have issued a
marine dense fog advisory until 06Z Thursday. Unsure if
visibilities will remain 1 nm or less after that as winds
increase and rain moves into the waters.

A weak pressure gradient will keep conditions on the waters
below SCA criteria with relatively light winds and seas of less
than 3 ft.

SCA conditions develop late Wednesday night on ocean waters for
both persistent gusts of 25-27kts and waves of 5ft. Non- ocean
zones are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.

Winds and waves look to remain below SCA criteria Thursday

Marginal SCA conditions are possible on Friday on the ocean east of
Moriches Inlet as seas could reach 5 ft. Otherwise, conditions
should remain below SCA levels Friday through Saturday night. Low
pressure then impacts the area, with potential for SCA criteria
Sunday through Monday night. At this time, peak gusts looks to be
Sunday night, with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Waves on the ocean may also
reach 6 to 8 feet by Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Around an inch of total rainfall is expected Wednesday into Thursday
night. There are no significant hydrologic concerns at this
time.

No hydrologic impacts are currently expected Friday through
early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-
     353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/MET
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS