000
FXUS61 KOKX 242155
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
455 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A nearly stationary frontal boundary remains in the vicinity
into Friday, possibly moving north as a warm front late tonight
into early Thursday. A wave of low pressure and a cold front
move east of the area during Friday. High pressure builds in
from the west Friday night into Saturday, followed by low
pressure approaching from the southwest Saturday night into
Sunday. The low passes to the south and east of the area Sunday
night into Monday. Weak high pressure will then build across
the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity, along the north
shore of Long Island into Northern New Jersey, and may move
north as a warm front late tonight into early Thursday morning.
A wave of low pressure does approach from the west late
tonight. Fog does remain widespread across the region, and was
locally dense across Connecticut and a special weather statement
was issued. More widespread dense fog is possible later this
evening across Connecticut and into the Lower Hudson Valley, and
northeastern New Jersey. Later tonight with steady rain moving
back into the region, and winds increasing, visibilities may
increase.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The frontal boundary may move north of the region as a warm
front early Thursday morning, and then sag back south as a cold
front as high pressure builds to the north. This trend is also
reflected in the probability grids. Temperatures will remain
warm enough both at the surface and aloft for the precipitation
to remain as all liquid Thursday. Again, the frontal boundary
will remain in the vicinity, and another wave of low pressure
moves along the boundary, with probabilities increasing once
again Thursday night, and then with the low moving to the east
Friday, the chances of precipitation gradually ends. There are
timing and placement uncertainties with the frontal boundary
and track of the waves of low pressure. One more significant
change was for Friday, with the frontal boundary now farther to
the south, and daytime high temperatures Friday have been
lowered 5 to 10 degrees.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

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*Key Points*

* Low pressure will impact the area late Saturday night into
  Monday. There is still some uncertainty in the magnitude of
  the low and its exact track. There is also a chance that rain
  at the onset changes over to snow or a wintry mix Sunday night
  into Monday. This will be refined through the coming days.

* Temperatures return to near or below normal levels by Sunday.

Both ridging aloft and at the surface will build across the
area Friday night into Saturday. At the same time, a closed low
over the Southern Plains tracks into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
The associated storm system will impact the area late Saturday
night into Monday. A broad area of surface low pressure moves
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Sunday, with a secondary
developing along the Mid Atlantic coast. The latter of which
deepens and passes to the south and east of the forecast area
Sunday night into Monday. The 12Z GFS is very disjointed with
the system and farther south than the operational ECMWF and
Canadian, also not as deep. The GEFS mean is a more northern
solution and the EPS has quite a camp of lows from around 980 mb
to just under a 1000 mb. The magnitude and placement of this
low will be critical in determining whether there is a changeover
of the rain, that begins late Saturday night, to snow and/or a
wintry mix. The best chance at this time looks to be Sunday
night into Monday morning. Some of the higher elevations north
and west of NYC may see this happen even sooner. However, it`s
much too early to be this specific, but something to watch in
coming days. In addition, gusty NE winds will be a possibility
during this time.

Thereafter, weak high pressure builds into the area for Tuesday
and Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain over the area
through tonight, then lift northward Thursday morning.

LIFR at all the local terminals except KGON which is IFR. KGON is
expected to fall to LIFR within the next 1-2 hours. Expect these low
conditions to continue for the remainder of the evening and through
the night with low cigs and vsbys restrictions.

Conditions are likely to start improving Thursday morning as the
front starts to lift northward, however improvement may be slow
through the morning hours. Conditions are only expected to improve
to IFR towards the end of the TAF period for the 30 hour TAF sites.

Some light rain/drizzle is expected this evening and overnight,
however not expecting a lot of improvement with the
precipitation.

A light and variable or light SE flow is expected through this
evening. Winds will eventually shift towards the S and SW as
the warm front lifts to the north.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected for unexpected flight category changes
through the TAF period.

Timing of prevailing rain this afternoon/evening may be off by
1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday...Mainly IFR with periods of rain.

Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Improvement to VFR by afternoon.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at night.

Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE G20-25kt.

Monday...MVFR or lower. Chance of light snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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A nearly stationary frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of
the forecast waters this evening as a wave of low pressure
approaches from the west. Visibilities across the waters remain
at 1 nm or less with a dense fog advisory remaining in effect
until 1 AM EST Thursday. There is uncertainty whether or not
visibilities will increase late tonight as rain moves in and low
level winds increase. There is a chance that visibilities
remain 1 NM or less, and the dense fog advisory will need to be
extended. Also, the southwest winds increase late tonight as
the wave of low pressure approaches the waters and high pressure
remains off shore. Wind gusts on the ocean waters are marginal
SCA levels, however, ocean seas do build to SCA levels late
tonight into Thursday morning. So, kept the advisory for the
ocean waters in place, and extended the advisory east of
Moriches Inlet until 600 PM EST Thursday. Winds and seas across
all the waters remain below advisory levels Thursday night
through Saturday.

Gale conditions are possible on the ocean late Sunday into
Monday as a deepening storm system passes off the Mid Atlantic
coast, tracking to the south and east of the waters. Elsewhere,
expect SCA conditions during this time.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Three-quarters to nearly one inch of total rainfall is expected
tonight into Thursday night. There are no significant
hydrologic concerns at this time.

No hydrologic impacts are currently expected Friday through
early next week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EST Thursday for ANZ353-
     355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW