discussion on 2024-01-25

000
FXUS61 KOKX 250506
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1206 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will briefly lift north across the area tonight,
then works southward on Thursday and back south of the area by
Thursday evening. A wave of low pressure and a cold front move
east of the area during Friday. High pressure builds in from the
west Friday night into Saturday, followed by low pressure
approaching from the southwest Saturday night into Sunday. The
low passes to the south and east of the area Sunday night into
Monday. Weak high pressure will then build across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --No changes have been made to the forecast with this midnight
update. Dense fog remains in spots in the interior while
southern coastal area visibilities remain improved thanks to the
advancement of a warm front north and a strong LLJ mixing down
drier air. While the dense fog is not being observed at all
locations in the interior, many sites are reporting variable
visibility depending on what minute you are looking, so have
kept the Dense Fog Advisory for the interior.

A wave of low pressure does approach from the west late
tonight with a steady light to occasionally moderate rain
working first across inland areas and then dropping southward
along coastal locations.

Lows tonight will be anomalously warm, ranging from upper 30s
inland, to the lower 40s along the coast. This is close to 20
degrees above normal in spots.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The frontal boundary may move north of the region as a warm
front early Thursday morning, and then sag back south as a cold
front as high pressure builds to the north. This trend is also
reflected in the probability grids. Temperatures will remain
warm enough both at the surface and aloft for the precipitation
to remain as all liquid Thursday. Again, the frontal boundary
will remain in the vicinity, and another wave of low pressure
moves along the boundary, with probabilities increasing once
again Thursday night, and then with the low moving to the east
Friday, the chances of precipitation gradually ends. There are
timing and placement uncertainties with the frontal boundary
and track of the waves of low pressure. One more significant
change was for Friday, with the frontal boundary now farther to
the south, and daytime high temperatures Friday have been
lowered 5 to 10 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*Key Points*

* Low pressure will impact the area late Saturday night into
  Monday. There is still some uncertainty in the magnitude of
  the low and its exact track. There is also a chance that rain
  at the onset changes over to snow or a wintry mix Sunday night
  into Monday. This will be refined through the coming days.

* Temperatures return to near or below normal levels by Sunday.

Both ridging aloft and at the surface will build across the
area Friday night into Saturday. At the same time, a closed low
over the Southern Plains tracks into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
The associated storm system will impact the area late Saturday
night into Monday. A broad area of surface low pressure moves
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Sunday, with a secondary
developing along the Mid Atlantic coast. The latter of which
deepens and passes to the south and east of the forecast area
Sunday night into Monday. The 12Z GFS is very disjointed with
the system and farther south than the operational ECMWF and
Canadian, also not as deep. The GEFS mean is a more northern
solution and the EPS has quite a camp of lows from around 980 mb
to just under a 1000 mb. The magnitude and placement of this
low will be critical in determining whether there is a changeover
of the rain, that begins late Saturday night, to snow and/or a
wintry mix. The best chance at this time looks to be Sunday
night into Monday morning. Some of the higher elevations north
and west of NYC may see this happen even sooner. However, it`s
much too early to be this specific, but something to watch in
coming days. In addition, gusty NE winds will be a possibility
during this time.

Thereafter, weak high pressure builds into the area for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front continues to lift north of the area tonight and
remain near the area on Thursday.

Vsbys have improved faster than previously forecast, with some
locations at MVFR to VFR currently. The potential continues for
IFR through tonight, mainly for cigs. IFR continues on
Thursday, with some slight improvement possible in the
afternoon.

LLWS is expected mainly between 06z and 12z tonight/Thursday
morning. WS020/23050KT was added to the TAF.

Light rain/drizzle is expected overnight and for most of
Thursday.

Winds will shift towards the S and SW tonight and become VRB
during the day Thursday. E/NE winds expected by the end of the
TAF period.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected for flight category changes through the TAF
period.

Vsby improved faster than previously thought. Vsby forecast
remains low confidence through the TAF period.

LLWS may end a few hours earlier than shown in the TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night...IFR or lower in rain and BR/FG.

Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Improvement to VFR by afternoon.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at night.

Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE G20-25kt.

Monday...MVFR or lower. Chance of light snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A dense fog advisory will likely have to be dropped within the
hour due to a warm front lifting through and increasing southerly
flow.

South-Southwest winds increase late tonight as the wave of low
pressure approaches the waters and high pressure remains off
shore. Wind gusts on the ocean waters are marginal SCA levels,
however, ocean seas do build to SCA levels late tonight into
Thursday morning. So, kept the advisory for the ocean waters in
place, and extended the advisory east of Moriches Inlet until
600 PM EST Thursday. Winds and seas across all the waters remain
below advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday.

Gale conditions are possible on the ocean late Sunday into
Monday as a deepening storm system passes off the Mid Atlantic
coast, tracking to the south and east of the waters. Elsewhere,
expect SCA conditions during this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Three-quarters to nearly one inch of total rainfall is expected
tonight into Thursday night. There are no significant
hydrologic concerns at this time.

No hydrologic impacts are currently expected Friday through
early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     CTZ005>008.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ353-
     355.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW