discussion on 2024-01-25

000
FXUS61 KOKX 250616
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
116 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will briefly lift north across the area tonight,
then works southward on Thursday and back south of the area by
Thursday evening. A wave of low pressure and a cold front move
east of the area during Friday. High pressure builds in from the
west Friday night into Saturday, followed by low pressure
approaching from the southwest Saturday night into Sunday. The
low passes to the south and east of the area Sunday night into
Monday. Weak high pressure will then build across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. Dense fog remains in
some spots in the interior, but is no longer widespread enough
to warrant an advisory. Areas still experiencing dense fog
should gradually improve in the coming hours.

A wave of low pressure does approach from the west late
tonight with a steady light to occasionally moderate rain
working first across inland areas and then dropping southward
along coastal locations.

Lows tonight will be anomalously warm, ranging from upper 30s
inland, to the lower 40s along the coast. This is close to 20
degrees above normal in spots.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The frontal boundary may move north of the region as a warm
front early Thursday morning, and then sag back south as a cold
front as high pressure builds to the north. This trend is also
reflected in the probability grids. Temperatures will remain
warm enough both at the surface and aloft for the precipitation
to remain as all liquid Thursday. Again, the frontal boundary
will remain in the vicinity, and another wave of low pressure
moves along the boundary, with probabilities increasing once
again Thursday night, and then with the low moving to the east
Friday, the chances of precipitation gradually ends. There are
timing and placement uncertainties with the frontal boundary
and track of the waves of low pressure. One more significant
change was for Friday, with the frontal boundary now farther to
the south, and daytime high temperatures Friday have been
lowered 5 to 10 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*Key Points*

* Low pressure will impact the area late Saturday night into
  Monday. There is still some uncertainty in the magnitude of
  the low and its exact track. There is also a chance that rain
  at the onset changes over to snow or a wintry mix Sunday night
  into Monday. This will be refined through the coming days.

* Temperatures return to near or below normal levels by Sunday.

Both ridging aloft and at the surface will build across the
area Friday night into Saturday. At the same time, a closed low
over the Southern Plains tracks into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
The associated storm system will impact the area late Saturday
night into Monday. A broad area of surface low pressure moves
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Sunday, with a secondary
developing along the Mid Atlantic coast. The latter of which
deepens and passes to the south and east of the forecast area
Sunday night into Monday. The 12Z GFS is very disjointed with
the system and farther south than the operational ECMWF and
Canadian, also not as deep. The GEFS mean is a more northern
solution and the EPS has quite a camp of lows from around 980 mb
to just under a 1000 mb. The magnitude and placement of this
low will be critical in determining whether there is a changeover
of the rain, that begins late Saturday night, to snow and/or a
wintry mix. The best chance at this time looks to be Sunday
night into Monday morning. Some of the higher elevations north
and west of NYC may see this happen even sooner. However, it`s
much too early to be this specific, but something to watch in
coming days. In addition, gusty NE winds will be a possibility
during this time.

Thereafter, weak high pressure builds into the area for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front continues to lift north of the area tonight and
remains nearby early Thursday before moving back south through
the area late Thursday.

The forecast remains low confidence overall. Current thinking is
mainly MVFR to IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys through the TAF period.
The best chance for VFR or high end MVFR will be from now up
until about 12z and then again during a window in the afternoon.
Conditions then lower again Thursday night.

LLWS is expected mainly between 06z and 12z Thursday.
WS020/23050KT at all terminals.

Light rain/drizzle is expected through the TAF period.

Winds will eventually become S/SW tonight and become VRB during
the day Thursday. E/NE winds expected by the end of the TAF
period.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected for flight category changes through the TAF
period.

There could be fluctuations between IFR, MVFR and VFR throughout
the TAF period. LIFR will be possible at times.

LLWS may end a few hours earlier than shown in the TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night...IFR or lower in rain and BR/FG.

Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Improvement to VFR by afternoon.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at night.

Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE G20-25kt.

Monday...MVFR or lower. Chance of light snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
South-Southwest winds increase late tonight as the wave of low
pressure approaches the waters and high pressure remains off
shore. Wind gusts on the ocean waters are marginal SCA levels,
however, ocean seas do build to SCA levels late tonight into
Thursday morning. So, kept the advisory for the ocean waters in
place, and extended the advisory east of Moriches Inlet until
600 PM EST Thursday. Winds and seas across all the waters remain
below advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday.

Gale conditions are possible on the ocean late Sunday into
Monday as a deepening storm system passes off the Mid Atlantic
coast, tracking to the south and east of the waters. Elsewhere,
expect SCA conditions during this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Three-quarters to nearly one inch of total rainfall is expected
tonight into Thursday night. There are no significant
hydrologic concerns at this time.

No hydrologic impacts are currently expected Friday through
early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ353-
     355.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM/JT
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW