000
FXUS61 KOKX 250909
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
409 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front has lifted to the north of the area this morning
and will drop south through our area as a cold front this
afternoon/evening. The front lingers over/near the area Thursday
night. A wave of low pressure and a cold front move east of the
area during Friday. The region is in between systems to start
the weekend. Low pressure approaches for the latter half of the
weekend. The low is forecast to strengthen southeast of Long
Island Sunday night into Monday. High pressure returns
thereafter for early to the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A warm front has lifted north of the area this morning aided by a
strong SW LLJ. GOES-16 Longwave IR channel shows the boundary
very well associated with the colder cloud tops where most
precipitation is currently concentrated. Most of the current
rain in our area is light for northern areas near the warm front
and more like on-and-off drizzle for southern locations. This
will change as the warm front starts to advance southward helped
by an exiting low over the Canadian Maritimes and strengthening
high pressure to our north in the low`s wake. The warm front
will push back over the area this afternoon/evening as a cold
front, bringing more consistent light rainfall in the afternoon.
As the front situates itself south of us in the evening and
early night, much of the rainfall will be concentrated offshore
to the south, with more spotty, isolated rain chances, mostly
for southern areas closer to the boundary while northern areas
remain drier.

Areas of fog will continue to persist and may even redevelop until
the front clears to the south of the area Thursday afternoon and
evening. Before doing so, warm air will continue to filter in with
the warm front still situated to the north, leading to highs today
in the low-50s across the area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The front will stall and situate itself over our area yet again
Thursday night. Another wave of low pressure will track along this
frontal boundary from the southwest bringing more rainfall through
the night on Thursday. Areas of fog will redevelop Thursday night
and early Friday morning with this wave of low pressure as dewpoint
depressions will be very low and rainfall may not be heavy enough to
mix it out.

A second area of low pressure to our west with a cold front will
approach us Friday afternoon clearing any lingering rain and allow
drier air to filter in. In total, Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon, about 0.5-1.0 inches of rainfall is expected with higher
totals south and lower totals north.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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* Turning colder Sunday into early next week. Potential for another
  snow event Sunday night into Monday.

* Forecast highs only in the 30s for Monday and Tuesday.

Model uncertainty likely with wavering positions of low pressure
southeast of Long Island and varying magnitude of low pressure. So,
this will make for wide ranges of precipitation forecasts and how
much of the region will get snow versus rain or a mix of the two.
Also, this will make for wide ranges of snowfall in the forecast.

For Saturday, the local region will be in between low pressure well
out in the Atlantic and another one developing in the SE United
States. This low to our south and west will be the main player in
terms of the weather forecast and for potentially the impactful
weather of the long term.

The low is forecast to move northeast along the Appalachians
Saturday night into Sunday. Then, on Sunday, the low moves east to
the mid-Atlantic coast and eventually offshore for early Sunday
evening. The low thereafter deepens as it continues to move in a
general eastward direction Sunday night through Monday.

High pressure builds in from the north for Monday night. However,
this high quickly weakens Tuesday into mid week. Mainly dry and cold
conditions with airmass moderating by midweek with temperatures
trending warmer.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Frontal boundary eventually moves farther south across the region
today and then returns back north tonight.

Conditions vary mainly MVFR to VFR initially with some localized
IFR. Expecting a deterioration of conditions to IFR during the day
today with more rain in the forecast. Conditions could fluctuate
between MVFR and IFR this afternoon.

More fog possible late today and into tonight with IFR and
potentially lower conditions again.

Winds relatively light through the period, near 10 kts or less.
LLWS with SW winds near 50 kt at 2kft until about mid morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected for flight category changes through the TAF
period.

There could be fluctuations between IFR, MVFR and VFR throughout
the TAF period. LIFR will be possible at times.

LLWS may end a few hours earlier than shown in the TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain AM. Improvement to VFR by afternoon.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at night.

Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. Potential for snow late Sunday
night. E-NE G20-30kt.

Monday...MVFR or lower. NE G20-30 kt early. Chance of snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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SCA conditions were originally expected this morning along ocean
waters, but the latest guidance and observations no longer support
the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory. Waves will reach 4 feet on
ocean waters with wind gusts SW 20-24 kts.

Thursday afternoon through Friday night SCA conditions are not
expected.

Sub-SCA conditions expected Saturday through Saturday night. SCA
conditions become more likely Sunday and Sunday night. Potential for
gales on Eastern LI Sound and Eastern LI Bays Sunday night into
Monday with otherwise SCA conditions. Monday night forecast to have
more SCA conditions as gales diminish.

Ocean seas build to 5 to 10 ft Sunday night into Monday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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In total, Thursday morning through Friday afternoon, about 0.5-1.0
inches of rainfall is expected with higher totals south and lower
totals north. There are no significant hydrologic concerns at this
time.

No hydrologic impacts are currently expected Friday through
early next week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR