000
FXUS61 KOKX 251602
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1102 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front that has lifted into the area will drop south as a
cold front this afternoon and evening, then linger nearby
tonight. A wave of low pressure and a cold front will pass to
the east during Friday. The region will then be in between low
pressure systems to start the weekend. The next low will
approach on Sunday , then strengthen southeast of Long Island
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will then return early
to mid next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Made some adjustments to temps to account for the warm front
lifting north into the area. Blend of GFS LAMP and HRRR temps
forecasts highs in the lower/mid 50s before the front starts
sinking back to the south later today in response to an exiting
low over the Canadian Maritimes and strengthening high
pressure to our north in its wake.
Also added fog, especially along the coast where vsby was less
than 1 nm in spots.
Steady rain is pulling off to the east. Made adjustments to PoP
mainly across CT and the lower Hudson Valley, and based on
current radar will likely have to trend down further going into
this afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The front will stall and situate itself over our area yet again
tonight. Another wave of low pressure will track along this
frontal boundary from the southwest bringing more rainfall
through the night on Thursday. Areas of fog will redevelop
tonight into early Friday morning with this wave of low
pressure, as dewpoint depressions will be very low and rainfall
may not be heavy enough to mix it out.
A second area of low pressure to our west with a cold front will
approach us Friday afternoon, clearing any lingering rain and
allowing drier air to filter in. In total, Thursday morning
through Friday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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* Rain late Sat night into Sunday, ending as snow potentially
late Sunday night into Monday. Potential for accumulating snow
Sunday night into Monday along with gusty NE winds. Forecast
confidence is low.
* Turning colder Sunday into early next week. Forecast highs
only in the 30s for Monday and Tuesday.
Model uncertainty likely with wavering positions of low pressure
southeast of Long Island and varying magnitude of low
pressure. So, this will make for wide ranges of precipitation
forecasts and how much of the region will get snow versus rain
or a mix of the two. Also, this will make for wide ranges of
snowfall in the forecast. Because of these factors, the forecast
confidence is low and the new forecast incorporates the
previous forecast to mitigate drastic oscillations of
precipitation and winds from one forecast to the next.
For example, LREF dataset depicts greatest uncertainty in
precipitation from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
comparing differences between max and min members as well as
between the 25th and 75th percentile.
Aloft, mid to upper levels depict a deepening trough with
positive tilt Saturday into Saturday night. By Sunday, the
upper jet extends from Gulf of Mexico to southern portions of
Canadian Maritimes. The jet streak goes east of the local region
Monday and the jet remains south of the region early to the
middle of next week.
The mid levels show the trough moving into the area Sunday, with
most positive vorticity advection moving across Sunday night
into early Monday. Trough pattern overall on average remains
across the region early to middle of next week.
For Saturday, the local region will be in between low pressure
well out in the Atlantic and another one developing in the SE
United States. This low to our south and west will be the main
player in terms of the weather forecast and for potentially the
impactful weather of the long term.
The low is forecast to move northeast along the Appalachians
Saturday night into Sunday. Then, on Sunday, the low moves
east to the mid-Atlantic coast and eventually offshore for early
Sunday evening. The low thereafter deepens as it continues to
move in a general eastward direction Sunday night through
Monday.
High pressure builds in from the north for Monday night.
However, this high quickly weakens Tuesday into mid week.
Mainly dry and cold conditions with airmass moderating by
midweek with temperatures trending warmer.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Frontal boundary eventually moves across the region and farther
south today and then returns back north tonight.
With a warm front to the south of the region and another frontal
boundary to the north, with a wave of low pressure tracking
through the area, or just to the south, conditions vary from IFR
to MVFR, and even briefly VFR. With the rain ending as the wave
of low pressure passes to the south and east, conditions are
expected to briefly improve to MVFR across the terminals.
However, with another round of rain moving in late this evening
into tonight, and early Friday conditions return to IFR and
possibly LIFR.
With the potential for categories to fluctuate and timing
differences and spatial differences in categories that could
vary a few hours from forecast, the forecast has low confidence.
Winds relatively light through the period, near 10 kts or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There could be fluctuations between IFR and MVFR today into
early tonight. LIFR will be possible at times, mainly this
evening, and tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday...Chance of MVFR/IFR/rain mainly AM. Improvement to MVFR
and eventually VFR in the afternoon.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower developing in rain at night.
Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. Potential for snow to mix in N&W
of NYC terminals with IFR possible. Potential for snow for all
terminals late Sunday night with IFR possible. E-NE winds
gusting 20-25kt during day and 25-30 kt at night.
Monday...MVFR or lower. Chance of snow, mainly AM. NE G20-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Seas at 44097 S of Block Island were subsiding below 5 ft attm,
and max seas in the Long Island coast are likely lower. SCA not
needed for the time being.
There could be a period of 5-ft seas late tonight into Fri
morning as NE-E flow increases after a cold fropa.
SCA conditions are also likely Sunday into Monday, with gales
possible on the ocean and eastern Sound/bays Sunday night. Ocean
seas build to 5-10 ft Sunday night into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are still no significant hydrologic concerns attm. QPF of
1/2 to 3/4 inch expected from this morning through Fri
afternoon, with the higher totals across NE NJ, NYC, and Long
Island.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-335-
338-345-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BG/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM/MET
MARINE...BG/JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM/BR