000
FXUS61 KOKX 251920
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
220 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front that has lifted through the area will drop south
as a cold front late today into this evening, then become
stationary to the south as a wave of low pressure moves along
it. This low will move to the east on Friday. The region will
then be in between low pressure systems to start the weekend.
The next low will approach on Sunday , then strengthen southeast
of Long Island Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will
then return early to mid next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Area of light rain passing across Long Island should pass east
before dark. Meanwhile, temps have risen into the lower/mid 50s
as expected, with a daily record high temp set for Islip (57)
and also tied so far at Newark. The front is beginning to sink
slowly southward based on light N winds across CT/Long Island,
and should start to slowly diminish toward sunset.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The front will stall to the south as a wave of low pressure
moves along it. This will bring another round of moderate rain
mainly after midnight, as temps fall to the lower 40s in the NYC
metro area and across Long Island, and 35-40 farther north. Fog
is also likely tonight especially from the NYC metro area
north/west, where lighter winds will prevail than out east.

Rain will still be likely early Fri morning across S CT and ern
Long Island as the wave of low pressure passes S of Long Island.
Most areas should be dry by afternoon, but mostly cloudy skies
should continue as low level moisture lingers. High temps will
be in the 40s throughout.

With light winds and residual low level moisture Fri night,
areas of fog look likely, and latest GFS MOS guidance indicates
the fog could become locally dense in spots. Lows Fri might will
also be a little colder in the wake of the passing low, bear 40
in NYC but in the 30s elsewhere, possible near or just below
freezing across the interior and in the Long Island Pine
Barrens.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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* Rain late Sat night into Sunday, ending as snow potentially
  late Sunday night into Monday. Potential for accumulating snow
  Sunday night into Monday along with gusty NE winds. Forecast
  confidence is low.

* Turning colder Sunday into early next week. Forecast highs
  only in the 30s for Monday and Tuesday.

Model uncertainty likely with wavering positions of low pressure
southeast of Long Island and varying magnitude of low
pressure. So, this will make for wide ranges of precipitation
forecasts and how much of the region will get snow versus rain
or a mix of the two. Also, this will make for wide ranges of
snowfall in the forecast. Because of these factors, the forecast
confidence is low and the new forecast incorporates the
previous forecast to mitigate drastic oscillations of
precipitation and winds from one forecast to the next.

For example, LREF dataset depicts greatest uncertainty in
precipitation from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night
comparing differences between max and min members as well as
between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Aloft, mid to upper levels depict a deepening trough with
positive tilt into Saturday night. By Sunday, the upper jet
extends from Gulf of Mexico to southern portions of Canadian
Maritimes. The jet streak goes east of the local region Monday
and the jet remains south of the region early to the middle of
next week.

The mid levels show the trough moving into the area Sunday, with
most positive vorticity advection moving across Sunday night
into early Monday. Trough pattern overall on average remains
across the region early to middle of next week.

Low pressure developing in the SE United States is forecast to
move northeast along the Appalachians Saturday night into
Sunday. Then, on Sunday, the low moves east to the mid-Atlantic
coast and eventually offshore for early Sunday evening. The low
thereafter deepens as it continues to move in a general eastward
direction Sunday night through Monday.

High pressure builds in from the north for Monday night.
However, this high quickly weakens Tuesday into mid week.
Mainly dry and cold conditions with airmass moderating by
midweek with temperatures trending warmer.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity through tonight,
fluctuating across the terminals. A wave of low pressure tracks
northward tonight, with another wave then developing in the area
and tracking eastward late tonight into Friday.

Low confidence forecast with the flight categories and timing of
changes in ceilings and visibilities, especially through early
this evening. MVFR is generally expected, however, IFR is
possible at times, and even VFR especially inland. Conditions
lower back to IFR and LIFR later this evening, and remain into
Friday morning, with light rain and fog.

Winds relatively light through the period, near 10 kts or less.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Varying conditions this afternoon from MVFR to IFR. Brief
periods of VFR are possible mainly early this afternoon. IFR,
to LIFR at times, this evening and tonight. Low confidence
forecast with ceiling heights and timing of changing conditions.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon...MVFR, to locally IFR especially east of the
NYC terminals, with light rain. Then MVFR likely at all the
terminals by late in the day.

Saturday...MVFR, brief VFR possible, during the day. Becoming
IFR with rain developing at night.

Sunday...MVFR or lower in rain. Potential for snow to mix in N&W
of NYC terminals with IFR possible late in the day. Potential
for snow for all terminals late Sunday night with IFR possible.
E-NE winds gusting 20-25kt during day and 25-30 kt at night.

Monday...MVFR or lower. Chance of snow, mainly AM. NE G20-30 kt.

Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Dense fog advy continues for the western waters. SCA will
also likely be needed for the ocean waters for late tonight
into Fri morning as NE-E flow gusts up to 25 kt and seas build
to 5 ft.

SCA conditions are also likely Sunday into Monday, with gales
possible on the ocean and eastern Sound/bays Sunday night. Ocean
seas build to 5-10 ft Sunday night into Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are still no significant hydrologic concerns attm. QPF of
1/2 to 3/4 inch expected from this morning through Fri
afternoon, with the higher totals across NE NJ, NYC, and Long
Island.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-335-
     338-345-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BG/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM/BR