discussion on 2024-01-26

000
FXUS61 KOKX 270244
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
944 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure pulls the frontal boundary that has been lingering
over the area to the east tonight. Weak high pressure then
builds in Saturday, before giving way to an approaching low from
the southwest Saturday night. A secondary low then develops
offshore, deepening and tracking south and east of the area
through Monday. Weak high pressure builds into the region for
the middle and end of next week. A weak clipper system will pass
west of the region on Wednesday. Another low pressure system
will pass south of the area Thursday into Friday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Minor changes made with this update. Fog continues across the entire
area, mostly 1-3 miles, but isolated areas where it may be dense.
Still no dense fog advisories anticipated. A light northerly flow
has recently developed, and thinking this could help a little in
preventing a widespread dense fog situation.
Bufkit soundings also indicate maybe a little turbulent mixing
toward the top of the boundary layer overnight, so this would help
prevent it as well.

A frontal boundary remains just to our south. Surface low pressure
is strengthening to our east along the boundary and will pull it
east this evening. Mainly dry conditions are expected tonight. There
is potential for some drizzle or light rain across far eastern
portions of the area tonight. With no real change in airmass
tonight, moisture lingers at the surface and fog/mist continues.

Stuck close to the NBM for lows. Another night of well above normal
temperatures is expected. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s is about
10 to 15 degrees above normal for late January.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brief high pressure builds in for Saturday. However, with
aforementioned lingering moisture and heights slightly falling
aloft, skies remain mostly cloudy all day. Some breaks of sun are
possible in the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s.

Attention then turns to a coastal low that will impact the area
Saturday night through early Monday. Low pressure develops over the
southeast US. The surface low and associated upper level trough lift
towards the area and then a secondary low forms off of the Delmarva
and passes to our south and east as it strengthens. Although the
latest guidance has the low tracking around the 40N/70W
benchmark, this looks to be a mainly plain rain event for most
due to how marginal the temperature profiles are. The interior
has the best chance at seeing any accumulating snow and at this
time only a few tenths to an inch are forecast. As colder air
wraps into the system early Monday, it could end as light snow
for the whole area, but there will likely not be any
accumulation for the CT coast, the NYC/NJ metro and Long
Island. Storm total liquid equivalent is expected to be around
an inch. There are no hydrologic concerns at this time as this
will fall over a 24+ hour period. The system will also bring
gusty easterly/northeasterly winds, with 30 to 35 mph gusts
expected along the coastal areas and Long Island mainly Sunday
night.

The area will be mostly dry by Monday afternoon and evening,
with only lingering light snow expected for far eastern
locations.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure northeast of the region builds into the region
Monday night and Tuesday and will remain over the area through
much of the week. Meanwhile, a series of upper level shortwave will
pass nearby the region.

Monday night and Tuesday, as low pressure departs, high pressure
builds into the region from the northeast. Aloft, a brief period of
ridging takes place. Generally looking at partly to mostly sunny
skies on Tuesday.

A shortwave and associated weak clipper low passes west of the
region. The high pressure nosing in from the Northeast should help
keep conditions dry, however if the high is displaced further east,
there is a chance that some light precipitation could get into the
region during this period. As the shortwave and weak surface low
goes around the high, it will transfer its energy to a developing
coastal low, which is then expected to remain south of the area
Thursday and Friday.

Overall, have gone with a dry forecast however, if subsequent models
runs hint at this high being displaced further away from the region,
its likely POPs will have to be added to the forecast.

Forecast temperatures through the long term will generally range
from the middle 30s to lower 40s for high temperatures, which is
right around normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will be in
the 20s and 30s.

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak high pressure builds in behind a departing low through Saturday.

IFR tonight, improving to MVFR Saturday afternoon. Some terminals
see VFR Saturday afternoon. Could be some drizzle at times tonight.

Light and variable to northerly winds overnight, remaining under
10kt. Winds veer NE-ENE late aftn/early eve Saturday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Cigs might prevail 500-900 feet starting 07-09z. VFR on Saturday
may occur a few hours sooner than indicated in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR early, the becoming MVFR to IFR with rain
developing after 06Z, a rain/snow mix well inland.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain. Potential for snow to mix in at KSWF
during the morning. NE winds G20-30kt, highest along the coast.

Monday: MVFR or lower. Chance of rain and snow in the morning. N
winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
Marine Dense Fog Advisory was hoisted for the NY Harbor, south
shore bays, and western LI Sound, and ocean waters west of
Moriches Inlet thru 11Z Sat for locally dense fog reducing
visibilities to under 1 nm. As often the case, some uncertainty
in how widespread and just how low visibilities will get,
though already seeing shoreline obs at or under this, and this
is likely to persist on these waters overnight.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday night. Low pressure
then approaches and moves southeast of the area Sunday through
Monday. This low will bring SCA conditions to all waters, with the
potential for a brief window of occasional gales across the
ocean waters Sunday night. Waves on the ocean likely build to 7
to 9 feet by Sunday night.

SCA conditions will remain likely on the ocean waters through
Wednesday as seas remain above 5ft. Seas then fall below 5 ft for
the end of the week. Other than some gusts to near 25kt for the
first half of Monday night, conditions on the non-ocean waters are
expected to remain below SCA criteria through the middle of next
week.

.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low will bring mainly rain to the area Saturday night
through early Monday, with a rain/snow mix inland. About an inch of
total liquid equivalent is forecast. This will fall over a 24 hour
period. There are no hydrologic concerns at this time.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strengthening E/SE flow Sunday into Sunday night, backing to a
N/NE flow Monday into Monday Night, with long duration of easterly
wind waves/swells, will bring potential for several cycles of minor
coastal flood impacts Sunday Night into Tuesday morning along much
of the coast. Tidal piling over several tidal cycles presents
potential for locally moderate coastal flood impacts along the
Western and Central Great South Bay.

There is currently quite a bit of spread between Stevens and PETSS
ensemble surge guidances. The forecast details will be refined
through the weekend as low pressure details come into better focus
and the event better resolved by storm surge models.

Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge are needed for minor coastal flooding
and 3 1/2 ft for moderate coastal flooding.

In terms of shoreline impacts, a prolonged period of e to w sweep of
3 to 5 ft breaking surf Sun Night thru Tue will likely lead to beach
escarpment and beach flooding during high tides, but the potential
for dune erosion is low and localized.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ335-338-345-
353-355.

SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...JC/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...