000
FXUS61 KOKX 271204
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
704 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds over the northeast today before
giving way to approaching low pressure from the southwest. The
low will redevelop south of Long Island on Sunday and track east
of the area through Monday. High pressure then builds into the
region for the middle and end of next week. A weak clipper
system will pass west of the region on Wednesday. Another low
pressure system will pass south of the area Thursday into
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
There have been notable improvements over the last few hours
with visibilities across the area. A light N-NE flow has
developed as high pressure begins to build into the area. Some
turbulent mixing near the top of the boundary layer has likely
helped as well. There are still some localized areas that have
some fog, but visibilities at most locations are above 1 mile.
Therefore, did not see a need to extend the SPS at this time.
Will still carry patchy fog in the forecast through 13z. Low
stratus will still continue this morning.
Otherwise, high pressure will briefly move over the northeast
today. Any lingering fog should improve by middle morning, but
low clouds are likely to persist through much of the afternoon.
Model BUFKIT profiles indicate a small window for some breaks in
the low clouds in the middle to late afternoon. The next storm
system will continue organizing over the south with heights
rising aloft ahead of the system along the eastern seaboard.
Highs will be slightly above normal for this time of year in the
lower 40s for most with middle to upper 40s in the NYC metro
and NE NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned storm system will begin tracking northeast
over the southern Appalachians this evening and then towards
the Ohio Valley early Sunday morning. The low then redevelops
south of Long Island through the day on Sunday and then tracks
ENE away from the coast through Monday.
Model guidance has continued to show trend north with the track
of the low. The airmass in place is marginal for accumulating
snow even across the interior. While there is lingering high
pressure over New England as the low approaches tonight, it
quickly weakens and moves offshore by Sunday morning. The middle
level low centers at 850 and 700 mb tracking to our west is
another factor that is strongly leaning against any significant
accumulating snow with this event. There will be a decent push
of warming aloft leading to marginal thermal profiles with a
warm nose somewhere between 925 and 800 mb. Some of the
deterministic models can run a bit cold and slow with these
features and have noted a trend in the higher resolution
guidance indicating this warm push occurring Sunday morning. The
track of the middle level low centers to our west favors a
warmer thermal profile.
Precipitation should begin to overspread the region from
southwest to northeast towards midnight and then continue
through early Sunday morning. Thermal profiles are marginal even
at the onset, but there may be enough of a window into early
Sunday morning for a period of a rain/snow mix or in some cases
just snow for higher elevations. A dusting or a light coating
for higher elevations is possible. This appears to be brief
however as the warming aloft should take hold fairly quickly
Sunday morning. For the rest of the region, a cold rain is
forecast late tonight through Sunday.
There is also growing evidence for a middle level dry slow to
move in by Sunday afternoon. This should be able to limit snow
growth aloft and help keep the predominate PTYPE as just a cold
rain across the interior into the afternoon. The offshore low
should become the predominate low Sunday night with the middle
level lows passing near or just south of Long Island. This will
allow for some slightly colder air to return both aloft and at
the surface. Bands of precipitation may wrap around the low and
move NW to SE across the region into early Monday morning. Some
light snow is possible inland through the night, but even a
rain/snow mix may occur at the coast. Drier air and limited
forcing moves overhead shortly after day break Monday with any
lingering precip pushing east of the area.
Mainly under an inch across the interior, especially in higher
elevations, is forecast. A reasonable worst case scenario of 1-2
inches for the interior if the low tracks further south leading
to a slightly colder solution. Storm total liquid equivalent
amounts range from three quarters to around an inch. The system
will also bring gusty easterly/northeasterly winds, with 30 to
35 mph gusts expected along the coastal areas late Sunday into
early Monday.
The associated upper trough likely lingers over the region into
Monday evening with mostly cloudy conditions continuing despite
the low pushing offshore through the day. Highs will be a few
degrees above normal in the upper 30s inland to lower 40s near
the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No changes were made to the long term.
Surface high pressure northeast of the region builds into the region
Monday night and Tuesday and will remain over the area through
much of the week. Meanwhile, a series of upper level shortwave will
pass nearby the region.
Monday night and Tuesday, as low pressure departs, high pressure
builds into the region from the northeast. Aloft, a brief period of
ridging takes place. Generally looking at partly to mostly sunny
skies on Tuesday.
A shortwave and associated weak clipper low passes west of the
region. The high pressure nosing in from the Northeast should help
keep conditions dry, however if the high is displaced further east,
there is a chance that some light precipitation could get into the
region during this period. As the shortwave and weak surface low
goes around the high, it will transfer its energy to a developing
coastal low, which is then expected to remain south of the area
Thursday and Friday.
Overall, have gone with a dry forecast however, if subsequent models
runs hint at this high being displaced further away from the region,
its likely POPs will have to be added to the forecast.
Forecast temperatures through the long term will generally range
from the middle 30s to lower 40s for high temperatures, which is
right around normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will be in
the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds just to the north through today. Low
pressure approaches late tonight.
Gradual improvement with flight categories continues, especially for
western most terminals going through this morning. Improvements
overall should be slower to come by for the more eastern terminals,
including KJFK. Confidence unfortunately is lower with respect to
overall degree and timing of improvement. Towards midday and into
this afternoon more widespread improvement should take shape with
even some terminals getting to VFR late this afternoon and for the
early evening. Flight categories will then lower again towards 6z
Sun with the arrival of rain, with IFR prevailing conditions
returning late in the TAF period.
The winds have gone more northerly this morning, but will remain
under 10kt today. Look for N-NE winds around 5 kt into mid to late
morning with slight variations in direction for some terminals.
Winds then veer NE-ENE late aftn/early eve, and increase from the
same direction late Sat night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments may be needed through much of the TAF period, especially
through this morning as some uncertainty remains around the degree
and coverage of improvement.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: IFR likely in rain. Potential for snow to mix in at KSWF
during the morning. NE winds G20-30kt, highest further southeast
along the coast.
Monday: MVFR or lower. Chance of rain and snow in the morning. N
winds 15G20-25kt.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Have cancelled the Marine Dense Fog Advisory as visibilities
have improved over the waters. There still may be some patchy
fog through 13z, but think prevailing visibilities will be
above 1 nm
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday night. Low pressure
then approaches and moves southeast of the area Sunday through
Monday. This low will bring SCA conditions to all waters, with the
potential gales across the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet
Sunday night into Monday. Seas on the ocean likely build to 7 to 9
feet Sunday night into Monday. Have issued an SCA on all waters
Sunday through Monday. The SCA on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet
only runs Sunday and then a gale watch will be in effect Sunday
night into Monday.
SCA conditions will remain likely on the ocean waters through
Wednesday as seas remain above 5ft. Seas then fall below 5 ft for
the end of the week. Other than some gusts to near 25kt for the
first half of Monday night, conditions on the non-ocean waters are
expected to remain below SCA criteria through the middle of next
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Liquid equivalent amounts of three quarters to around an inch are
expected late Saturday night into Sunday. Some of this will be in
the form of a rain/snow mix for the interior. There are no
hydrologic concerns at this time with this event.
No other hydrologic concerns are anticipated through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A E/NE flow into Sunday, backs to more of a NE flow by Sunday
evening, then due N Monday into Monday night. There is energy
coming into the coast with a easterly primary component, and a
secondary southerly waves/swell component Sunday and Sunday
evening. Used a 75- 80 percentile from Stevens, along with a
straight mean ETSS and ESTOFS blend. At this time have not
issued any advisories or statements as the latest guidance has
come in with lower total water levels Sunday and Sunday night.
Still cannot rule out statements or low end advisories needed
along the south shore bays of LI and the western half of Long
Island Sound for the high tide cycles for late AM / early PM
Sun, and Sun night. With more of a northerly component to the
wind getting established late Sun night into Monday impacts from
tidal piling looks a bit less likely based on the latest
guidance. At this point some locales may experience minor
coastal flooding over the next several cycles beginning on
Sunday, but the threat of any moderate coastal flood impacts
appears less likely now for the Western and Central Great South
Bay as the guidance spread appears to have come down some.
Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge are needed for minor coastal
flooding, and 3 1/2 ft for moderate coastal flooding. Any
potential for dune erosion is low and localized. The forecast
details will be refined through the weekend as low pressure
details continue to come into better focus and the event gets
better resolved by storm surge models.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...