000
FXUS61 KOKX 271534
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1034 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will briefly build over the Northeast today before
giving way to approaching low pressure from the southwest. The
low will redevelop south of Long Island on Sunday and then head
east of the area through Monday. High pressure will then build
into the region through Tuesday. A weak Alberta clipper low
will pass to the west on Wednesday. Another low will pass to the
south from Thursday into Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Vis satellite shows breaks in the overcast extending from parts
of the lower Hudson Valley S toward NYC, also in parts of SW
CT. These will probably drift southward with the overall low
level flow, but may not last very long as clouds fill back in
via heating/mixing in the relative clear slot. Elsewhere skies
should remain overcast.
Meanwhile, the next storm system will continue organizing over
the South, with heights rising aloft ahead of the system along
the Eastern seaboard. Highs will be slightly above normal for
this time of year, with upper 40s in urban NE NJ, mid 40s most
elsewhere, and lower 40s in the higher elevations NW of NYC
and across eastern Long Island and much of S CT.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned storm system will begin tracking northeast
over the southern Appalachians this evening and then towards
the Ohio Valley early Sunday morning. The low then redevelops
south of Long Island through the day on Sunday and then tracks
ENE away from the coast through Monday.
Model guidance has continued to show trend north with the track
of the low. The airmass in place is marginal for accumulating
snow even across the interior. While there is lingering high
pressure over New England as the low approaches tonight, it
quickly weakens and moves offshore by Sunday morning. The middle
level low centers at 850 and 700 mb tracking to our west is
another factor that is strongly leaning against any significant
accumulating snow with this event. There will be a decent push
of warming aloft leading to marginal thermal profiles with a
warm nose somewhere between 925 and 800 mb. Some of the
deterministic models can run a bit cold and slow with these
features and have noted a trend in the higher resolution
guidance indicating this warm push occurring Sunday morning. The
track of the middle level low centers to our west favors a
warmer thermal profile.
Precipitation should begin to overspread the region from
southwest to northeast towards midnight and then continue
through early Sunday morning. Thermal profiles are marginal even
at the onset, but there may be enough of a window into early
Sunday morning for a period of a rain/snow mix or in some cases
just snow for higher elevations. A dusting or a light coating
for higher elevations is possible. This appears to be brief
however as the warming aloft should take hold fairly quickly
Sunday morning. For the rest of the region, a cold rain is
forecast late tonight through Sunday.
There is also growing evidence for a middle level dry slow to
move in by Sunday afternoon. This should be able to limit snow
growth aloft and help keep the predominate PTYPE as just a cold
rain across the interior into the afternoon. The offshore low
should become the predominate low Sunday night with the middle
level lows passing near or just south of Long Island. This will
allow for some slightly colder air to return both aloft and at
the surface. Bands of precipitation may wrap around the low and
move NW to SE across the region into early Monday morning. Some
light snow is possible inland through the night, but even a
rain/snow mix may occur at the coast. Drier air and limited
forcing moves overhead shortly after day break Monday with any
lingering precip pushing east of the area.
Mainly under an inch across the interior, especially in higher
elevations, is forecast. A reasonable worst case scenario of 1-2
inches for the interior if the low tracks further south leading
to a slightly colder solution. Storm total liquid equivalent
amounts range from three quarters to around an inch. The system
will also bring gusty easterly/northeasterly winds, with 30 to
35 mph gusts expected along the coastal areas late Sunday into
early Monday.
The associated upper trough likely lingers over the region into
Monday evening with mostly cloudy conditions continuing despite
the low pushing offshore through the day. Highs will be a few
degrees above normal in the upper 30s inland to lower 40s near
the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No changes were made to the long term.
Surface high pressure northeast of the region builds into the region
Monday night and Tuesday and will remain over the area through
much of the week. Meanwhile, a series of upper level shortwave will
pass nearby the region.
Monday night and Tuesday, as low pressure departs, high pressure
builds into the region from the northeast. Aloft, a brief period of
ridging takes place. Generally looking at partly to mostly sunny
skies on Tuesday.
A shortwave and associated weak clipper low passes west of the
region. The high pressure nosing in from the Northeast should help
keep conditions dry, however if the high is displaced further east,
there is a chance that some light precipitation could get into the
region during this period. As the shortwave and weak surface low
goes around the high, it will transfer its energy to a developing
coastal low, which is then expected to remain south of the area
Thursday and Friday.
Overall, have gone with a dry forecast however, if subsequent models
runs hint at this high being displaced further away from the region,
its likely POPs will have to be added to the forecast.
Forecast temperatures through the long term will generally range
from the middle 30s to lower 40s for high temperatures, which is
right around normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will be in
the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Weak high pressure builds across the area today, then gives way
to low pressure approaching for the southwest tonight.
Overall improvement to MVFR is expected today with a brief
episodes of VFR possible. Flight categories will then lower
again towards 6z Sun with the arrival of rain, with IFR
prevailing conditions returning late in the TAF period.
Look for N-NE winds around 5 kt into mid to late morning with
slight variations in direction for some terminals. Winds then
veer NE-ENE late aftn/early eve, and increase from the same
direction late tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments may be needed through much of the TAF period, especially
through this morning as some uncertainty remains around the degree
and coverage of improvement.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: IFR likely in rain. Potential for snow or a rain/snow
mix at KSWF. NE winds G20-30kt, highest further southeast along
the coast.
Monday: MVFR or lower. Chance of rain and snow in the morning. N
winds 15G20-25kt.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gale watch remain in effect E of Moriches Inlet from Sunday
night into Monday. SCA remains in effect on all other waters
from Sunday through Monday.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through tonight. Low pressure
approaching and then passing to the southeast from Sunday will
then bring SCA conditions to all waters, with potential for
gales on the ocean waters E of Moriches Inlet Sunday night into
Monday. Ocean seas likely build to 7-9 feet Sunday night into
Monday.
SCA conditions will remain likely on the ocean waters through
Wednesday as seas remain above 5 ft. Seas then fall below 5 ft
for the end of the week. Other than some gusts to near 25 kt for
the first half of Monday night, conditions on the non-ocean
waters should remain below SCA criteria through the middle of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns attm.
Liquid equivalent amounts of 3/4 to around 1 inch are expected
late tonight night into Sunday. Some of this will be in the
form of a rain/snow mix for the interior.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A E-NE flow into Sunday, backs more to the NE by Sunday evening,
then due N Monday into Monday night. There is energy coming
into the coast with a easterly primary component, and a
secondary southerly wave/swell component Sunday and Sunday
evening. Used a 75-80 percentile from Stevens NYHOPS, along
with a straight mean ETSS and ESTOFS blend. At this time have
not issued any advisories or statements as the latest guidance
has come in with lower total water levels Sunday and Sunday
night. Still cannot rule out need for statements or advisories
along the south shore bays of Long Island and along the western
Sound for the high tide cycles for late AM / early PM Sunday and
Sunday night.
With more of a northerly wind late Sunday night into Monday,
impacts from tidal piling look less likely. Some locales may
still experience minor coastal flooding over the next several
cycles beginning on Sunday, but the threat of moderate flooding
appears less likely.
Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge are needed for minor coastal flooding,
and 3 1/2 ft for moderate flooding. Potential for dune erosion
is low and localized.
Forecast details will be refined through the weekend as low
pressure details continue to come into better focus and the
event gets better resolved by storm surge models.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JE/DW
MARINE...BC/BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...