discussion on 2024-01-28

000
FXUS61 KOKX 280904
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure will impact the region through tonight. The low
moves away from the New England coast on Monday. High pressure
then returns Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will be in
control through mid week as low pressure passes well south of
the area. A cold front approaches on Friday and passes through
by Friday night. High pressure will be in control to begin next
weekend as it gradually builds from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --There has not been too much change to the forecast thinking
through tonight. The main challenge continues to revolve around
how much snow will accumulate across the interior, specifically
for the higher elevations along and north of I-84.

Precipitation has begun to overspread the region from southwest
to northeast. Temperatures across the region are in the upper
30s and low 40s and there is no real cold air source to help
lower temperatures. The system is going to rely on
dynamics/forcing to help cool the thermal profiles with the
expectation that a rain/snow mix begins developing towards day
break across the interior. Thermal profiles are still marginal
even after the stronger forcing moves in later this morning, but
there appears to be a brief window for some interior locations
to see an isothermal profile along 0C for all but the surface
layer. This would coincide with the most organized
frontogenesis, so it is not out of the question for a brief
period of moderate, wet snow for these areas along and north of
I-84. Surface temperatures likely stay above freezing, but the
precip rate should help bring temperatures down to around 33-34
degrees in the colder spots. A few wet snow flakes could mix in
a bit further south across the interior but overall a plain is
expected elsewhere through the morning.

The middle level low and dryslot begins to move overhead late
morning into the early afternoon helping to limit snow growth
aloft and decrease precipitation intensity. Most locations
should see a steady light rain through the rest of the day with
some locations along and north of I-84 potentially seeing some
wet snow mixed in at times if saturation can occur in the snow
growth layer aloft.

A secondary low develops off the NJ coast this morning and
tracks south and east of Long Island into this evening. The low
will become the main surface system this evening into tonight
as it tracks inside the benchmark tonight. Gusty winds are
likely to occur as the pressure gradient increases this
afternoon and evening, especially near the coast. Slightly
colder air will wrap around the low bringing the potential for
some wet snow to make it down to the NYC metro and Long Island
in any lingering precip late tonight into early Monday morning.

The most likely scenario is for a around an inch of snow for
the higher elevations along the I-84 corridor and under an inch
a but further south across the interior. Some of the highest
elevations could see 1-2 inches in any heavier precip bands this
morning. A reasonable worst case scenario of 2-3 inches/close
to advisory level exists for the same corridor. Amounts outside
this region will be light as snow may be difficult to accumulate
in a marginal boundary layer and with the likelihood of rain
mixing in this morning.

Liquid equivalent amounts around 1 inch are forecast.

Temperatures today will be in the lower/middle 30s inland and
upper 30s to low 40s near the coast. Temperatures only fall
into the lower 30s tonight with most areas likely staying above
freezing.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The upper trough associated with the low moving away from the
area will slide over the region on Monday. There may be some
spotty light precip in the morning and early afternoon, mainly
across Long Island and SE CT. The upper trough will otherwise
maintain at least mostly cloudy skies over the area. It will
also be breezy with gusts 20-25 mph possible. Highs will likely
end up a few degrees above normal for this time of year in the
upper 30s and low 40s.

The upper trough pulls away from the coast Monday night with
ridging starting to build aloft. High pressure will also build
in at the surface and then be in control on Tuesday. BUFKIT
soundings indicate a subsidence inversion Monday night into
Tuesday, which may keep a fair amount of stratocu in place.
There will likely be some sunshine, but the day may average
mostly cloudy given this lingering moisture beneath the
subsidence inversion. Highs will be a few degrees below normal
in the middle to upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --*** +AO / +NAO / +PNA prevails ***
*** Temperatures will average near to a bit above normal ***
*** Predominantly dry conditions throughout ***

Tue night into Wed morning a strong shortwave dives from NW
to SE. This strong area of upper level vorticity will spin up
low pressure, but well to the south of the area. Canadian high
pressure north of the area will be in control for the mid week
period with only some mid and high level clouds expected on Wed.
Temperatures on Wednesday should not get out of the 30s in most
places. A milder westerly flow should then follow into Thu and
Fri as a more Pacific based air mass settles in with
temperatures getting above normal with mainly 40s for the day
time.

With an amplifying ridge from the eastern slopes of the Rockies
into the nation`s midsection for Thu and into next weekend,
look for a teleconnection response into the northeast. Energy
will slide down from the NNW east of the ridge and into our
area. There is a lot of spread among the global guidance and
also within individual ensemble packages. What is most
noticeable is the large spread with the 500 mb height fields
into the northeast next weekend. Thus, did not stray too far
from the NBM / consensus temp forecast at this time. But if the
trough ends up getting aggressively into the northeast then
temperatures for next weekend will need to be lowered. At this
time keeping temperatures near seasonable levels into next
weekend.

Thus recapping; no major precip events with predominantly dry
conditions, and the mildest days look to be Thu and Fri, with the
coolest days likely to be Wed and Sat.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure approaches from the southwest and passes south of the
area this afternoon, then to the southeast and east Sunday night.

MVFR conditions give way to IFR with rain for this morning. This is
primarily a rain forecast for all but KSWF, which features a
rain/snow mix by later today. For KSWF, this is a close call as
temperatures are very marginal. Should it stay mainly a wet snow,
there is the potential for a few inches. Temperatures will generally
be above freezing.

Winds start to increase and become more NE-ENE into daybreak. Winds
then increase to around 15kt with gusts around 25kt by 18Z. Winds
back northerly tonight. Highest winds/gusts will be along the coast.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low to moderate chance that ceilings occasionally fall below 500ft
from approx 12-16z. Chance that snow prevails as dominant precip
type after 06z Mon, especially after 09z Mon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: IFR/MVFR in rain or rain/snow mix. N winds 10-
20G20-30kt, highest along the coast.

Monday: MVFR or lower. Chance of snow or rain/snow mix in the
morning. N winds 15G20-25kt.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Gale warning continues for the ocean waters today, as E flow
increases to 25-30kt with gusts around 35 kt in the afternoon
as low pressure develops along the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds
will back NE-N tonight, with the area of gales shifting E to
just E of Moriches Inlet. There is a chance it may need an
extension into a portion of Monday morning. After the gales end
on the ocean, SCA conditions will occur into Tuesday. Ocean seas
will peak at 6-10 ft tonight into Monday and will only slowly
subside to 5-7 ft on Tuesday.

The SCA continues on all other waters into the first half of
Monday as NE-E flow gusts to 25-30 kt and seas on the far
Eastern Sound potentially build to 3-5 ft.

Any lingering small craft seas should get below 5 ft towards
Wed morning. Otherwise sub small craft conditions are expected
through the mid to late week. However, seas will be around 4 ft
much of the time into the latter portion of the week with a 8
to 10 second easterly swell component lingering.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Liquid equivalent amounts of around 1 inch are still expected
into tonight. Some of this will be in the form of snow inland.
No hydrologic impacts are expected.

No hydrologic impacts are expected for the upcoming week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --At this time, there are no plans to issue coastal flood
headlines. The wind forcing associated with the coastal storm
that will impact the area looks to be offset from the time of
high tide on today. That being said, water levels may encroach
minor benchmarks, but confidence is too low at this time to
issue a statement.

While E-NE winds on today veer around the N tonight into
Monday, a prolonged easterly swell as evidenced in much of the
guidance maintains waters levels 2 to as much a 3 ft above
normal into Tuesday. This will result in tidal piling and could
increase the chances of minor coastal flooding heading into
Monday. The limiting factors at this time would be offshore flow
and lowering astronomical tides.

Bottom line, still cannot rule out need for statements or
advisories along the south shore bays of Long Island and along
the western Sound for the high tide cycles into Monday.

Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge are needed for minor coastal
flooding, and 3 1/2 ft for moderate flooding. Potential for
dune erosion is low and localized.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EST Monday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...