000
FXUS61 KOKX 281810
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
110 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will impact the region through tonight. The low
moves away from the New England coast on Monday. High pressure
then returns Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will be in
control through mid week as low pressure passes well south of
the area. A cold front approaches on Friday and passes through
by Friday night. High pressure will be in control to begin next
weekend as it gradually builds from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid level dry slot has punched in across the area. The loss of
saturation in the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) and temperatures
above freezing will result in mainly light rain and drizzle
during the afternoon hours. Some locations along and north of
I-84 potentially could see some wet snow mixed in at times if
saturation can occur in the snow growth layer aloft.
A secondary low develops off the NJ coast this morning and
tracks south and east of Long Island into this evening. The low
will become the main surface system this evening into tonight
as it tracks inside the benchmark tonight. Gusty winds are
likely to occur as the pressure gradient increases this
afternoon and evening, especially near the coast. Slightly
colder air will wrap around the low bringing the potential for
some wet snow to make it down to the NYC metro and Long Island
in any lingering precip late tonight into early Monday morning.
Little or no additional snow accumulation is forecast for
interior areas for the remainder of today.
Liquid equivalent amounts around 1 inch are forecast.
Temperatures today will be in the middle to upper 30s, with some
higher elevations across the interior a bit cooler.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper trough associated with the low moving away from the
area will slide over the region on Monday. There may be some
spotty light precip in the morning and early afternoon, mainly
across Long Island and SE CT. The upper trough will otherwise
maintain at least mostly cloudy skies over the area. It will
also be breezy with gusts 20-25 mph possible. Highs will likely
end up a few degrees above normal for this time of year in the
upper 30s and low 40s.
The upper trough pulls away from the coast Monday night with
ridging starting to build aloft. High pressure will also build
in at the surface and then be in control on Tuesday. BUFKIT
soundings indicate a subsidence inversion Monday night into
Tuesday, which may keep a fair amount of stratocu in place.
There will likely be some sunshine, but the day may average
mostly cloudy given this lingering moisture beneath the
subsidence inversion. Highs will be a few degrees below normal
in the middle to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*** +AO / +NAO / +PNA prevails ***
*** Temperatures will average near to a bit above normal ***
*** Predominantly dry conditions throughout ***
Tue night into Wed morning a strong shortwave dives from NW
to SE. This strong area of upper level vorticity will spin up
low pressure, but well to the south of the area. Canadian high
pressure north of the area will be in control for the mid week
period with only some mid and high level clouds expected on Wed.
Temperatures on Wednesday should not get out of the 30s in most
places. A milder westerly flow should then follow into Thu and
Fri as a more Pacific based air mass settles in with
temperatures getting above normal with mainly 40s for the day
time.
With an amplifying ridge from the eastern slopes of the Rockies
into the nation`s midsection for Thu and into next weekend,
look for a teleconnection response into the northeast. Energy
will slide down from the NNW east of the ridge and into our
area. There is a lot of spread among the global guidance and
also within individual ensemble packages. What is most
noticeable is the large spread with the 500 mb height fields
into the northeast next weekend. Thus, did not stray too far
from the NBM / consensus temp forecast at this time. But if the
trough ends up getting aggressively into the northeast then
temperatures for next weekend will need to be lowered. At this
time keeping temperatures near seasonable levels into next
weekend.
Thus recapping; no major precip events with predominantly dry
conditions, and the mildest days look to be Thu and Fri, with the
coolest days likely to be Wed and Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure just off the Mid Atlantic coast will pass south of
Long Island late today into this evening, then continue farther
offshore overnight.
ENE winds are increasing attm, with sustained winds at coastal
terminals increasing closer to 15 kt and KJFK gusting to 20-25
kt. Winds should gradually back NE this afternoon and then N
tonight at similar speeds.
With steady rain coming to an end in the NYC metro area, cigs
are just barely MVFR at most of the NYC metros except for KLGA,
where a flow off Long Island Sound is maintaining IFR cigs. IFR
also seen at KHPN/KSWF to the north with rain occasionally
mixed with wet snow or sleet, and out east at KGON.
Cigs may fluctuate between MVFR and IFR this afternoon at the
NYC metros, then are more likely to remain MVFR after winds back
to the N tonight, perhaps a couple of hrs earlier than
currently fcst.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Cigs may improve at times to MVFR this afternoon. MVFR more
likely tonight after winds back N. Chance that snow instead of a
rain/snow mix prevails as dominant precip type after 06Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Mainly MVFR or lower, with VFR possible late. Chance of
snow or a rain/snow mix in the morning. N winds 15G20-25kt.
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Based on latest obs across LI Sound, increased winds with the
potential for ENE gusts to occasionally hit 35 kt, especially
across the western sound. In addition, seas already up to 4 at
the western and central sound buoys. Forecast updated for seas
to get as high as 5 ft, possibly higher before winds become
more northerly this evening.
Otherwise, gale warning continues for the ocean waters today,
as E flow increases to 25-30 kt with gusts around 35 kt in the
afternoon as low pressure develops along the Mid Atlantic coast.
Winds will back NE-N tonight, with the area of gales shifting E
to just E of Moriches Inlet. There is a chance it may need an
extension into a portion of Monday morning. After the gales end
on the ocean, SCA conditions will occur into Tuesday. Ocean seas
will peak at 6-10 ft tonight into Monday and will only slowly
subside to 5-7 ft on Tuesday.
The SCA continues on all other waters into the first half of
Monday as NE-E flow gusts to 25-30 kt, occasionally 35 kt this
afternoon, and seas on the far Eastern Sound potentially build
to 3-5 ft.
Any lingering small craft seas should get below 5 ft towards
Wed morning. Otherwise sub small craft conditions are expected
through the mid to late week. However, seas will be around 4 ft
much of the time into the latter portion of the week with a 8
to 10 second easterly swell component lingering.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Liquid equivalent amounts generally in the range of 0.75 to
1.25 inches fell from the rain this morning. An additional two
to four tenths is possible through Monday in lighter
precipitation. No hydrologic impacts are expected.
No hydrologic impacts are expected for the upcoming week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Currently there are no plans to issue coastal flood headlines. The
wind forcing associated with the coastal storm that will impact the
area today into Monday looks to be offset from the time of high tide
today. That being said, water levels may encroach minor benchmarks,
but confidence of occurrence remains too low to issue a statement.
While E-NE winds today veer around the N tonight into Monday, a
prolonged easterly swell as evidenced in much of the guidance
maintains waters levels 2 to as much a 3 ft above normal into
Tuesday. This will result in tidal piling and could increase the
chances of minor coastal flooding heading into Monday through early
Tuesday. The limiting factors will be be offshore flow and lowering
astronomical tides.
Bottom line, still cannot rule out the need for statements or
advisories along the south shore bays of Long Island and along the
western Sound for the high tide cycles through the day on Tuesday.
Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge are needed for minor coastal flooding,
and 3 1/2 ft for moderate flooding. Potential for dune erosion is
low and localized.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE/BG
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...