000
FXUS61 KOKX 282129
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
429 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Deepening low pressure tracks to the south and east of the area
through Monday. High pressure will then build in from the north
Tuesday through Wednesday. A low pressure system approaches
Thursday, sending a cold front through the area on Friday.
Strong high pressure from Eastern Canada stays west of the area
for next weekend as the low center deepens east of the area in
the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Mid-level dry across the area has resulted in mainly drizzle
and/or light rain for the afternoon hours, but every now and
then a heavier pocket may mix with sleet and/or snow as verified
by mPING reports. The upper low/trough will move across the
area and precipitation should fill back in with a moistening
vertical profile. Expect the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) to
moisten and rain to transition to snow through the night with
even a rain/snow mix getting down to the coast during the early
morning hours. However, temperatures are forecast to generally
be above freezing through the night with the possible exception
of higher elevations across inland areas. Precipitation will
generally be light, so any accumulations should be minor. Liquid
equivalent overnight into Monday will be about a 0.25". Also
interesting to note, as surface low pressure passes to the south
and east, gusty NE winds will become more northerly through the
night. For Long Island, this will be off the Long Island Sound.
Multiple high res models are picking on a west to east
enhancement in the precipitation across Long Island. This is due
to a moist upslope component which has been noted in past
events. It doesn`t take much elevation to help squeeze out a bit
more. This may be enough to provide a coating of snow across
this area.
Precipitation (rain/snow) will linger across CT and LI to start
the day exiting far eastern areas in the afternoon. Expect a
small diurnal range in temperatures with highs topping out in
the upper 30s to around 40. Gusty north winds will continue
overnight, especially along the coast, gradually diminishing
Monday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure builds in from the west Monday night with
diminishing north winds and some clearing. Lows will generally
drop into the 20s, but around 30 for the NYC metro. This is
closer to normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Main Points
* Much of the forecast period remains dry
* Daytime temperatures generally below normal Tuesday, above normal
Thursday and Friday, otherwise near normal
* Rain and snow showers probable Thursday night into Friday,
moisture limited though
For Tuesday, high pressure continues to builds in from the north.
Model 850mb temperatures near a range of -5 to -8 degrees C. Dry
conditions with below normal temperatures expected.
For Tuesday night, high pressure still present. The center of the
high makes its way farther south along coastal New England. Dry
conditions and cold temperatures expected.
For Wednesday through Wednesday night, high pressure weakens over
the local area. The local area stays dry. A low moves well south of
the region, tracking from near Tennessee Valley to off coast of
Carolinas by early Wednesday. On Wednesday night, this low moves
eastward farther out into the Atlantic. The airmass moderates over
the local area as winds become weaker. Temperatures trend warmer
compared to previous day.
For Thursday, the pressure field will be weak. A frontal system will
be approaching from the north and west, getting closer to the
region Thursday night. Possible rain and snow showers forecast
Thursday night. The center of the low associated with this
frontal system by early Friday in SE Canada and northern New
England.
The associated cold front moves in late Thursday night into early
Friday. Precipitation chances increase for the rain and snow showers
late Thursday night into early Friday. Forecast increased over NBM
POPs after surveying the local area probabilities of last 2 runs of
GEFS and ECMWF ensembles for at least 0.01 inch precipitation. With
magnitude of low not too strong, the precipitation should be mostly
light.
The low and cold front move well east of the area Friday afternoon
into Friday night. The low center is forecast to deepen east of the
area.
The low continues to deepen and it travels more northward going into
next weekend. The region will be in between this low and high
pressure building southward from Eastern Canada. This high pressure
area will stay west of the region.
Slight chances for rain and snow showers Friday afternoon and then
just for extreme eastern sections Friday night. Mainly dry
conditions expected for next weekend. Temperatures do trend colder
going into next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Low pressure south of Long Island will head out to sea tonight. AS
it does so, winds will beck to the NE-N this evening, with speeds 10-
15G20-25kt, highest at the metro and coastal terminals.
Most sites are IFR attm in light rain/drizzle. Some improvement
expected this evening as the winds back N, but then colder air as
well as a band of steady precip dropping down from the N should
bring about at least a mix with snow if not a changeover to all snow
at KSWF, possibly also KHPN/KBDR/KGON. Kept precip light overnight
with mostly MVFR conditions, but it is possible that IFR could
prevail late tonight into the AM push.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of improvement to MVFR tonight uncertain.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: MVFR to start, becoming VFR toward evening. N
winds 10-15G20kt.
Monday night through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday night and Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower cond in rain/snow
showers, mainly late night into the morning hours.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Marginal NE-N gales will continue for the ocean waters into
this evening, ending from west to east through the overnight.
SCAs will then replace the expiring gales. Elsewhere, SCA
conditions will continue into Monday afternoon. Seas on the
ocean will likely stay above 5 ft through Monday night. High
pressure begins to build in from the west Monday night.
Lingering SCA seas on the ocean Tuesday into Tuesday night with
otherwise below SCA conditions across the forecast waters.
Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on the forecast
waters Wednesday through Friday night. However, wind gusts do
increase to near 20 kt Thursday through Friday night. Especially
behind the cold front Friday into Friday night, the gusts could
trend higher in subsequent forecast, thereby increasing the chances
for SCA level wind gusts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected for the upcoming week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Still no plans to issue coastal flood headlines as water levels are
likely to remain below flood thresholds. May have to watch the late
Monday night or Tuesday morning high tide cycles for water levels
just touching minor benchmarks along the western Sound and in the
southern Nassau back bays.
Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal
flooding.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG