discussion on 2024-01-28

000
FXUS61 KOKX 290046
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
746 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure tracks to the south and east of the area
through Monday. High pressure will then build in from the north
Tuesday through Wednesday. A low pressure system approaches
Thursday, sending a cold front through the area on Friday.
Strong high pressure from Eastern Canada stays west of the area
for next weekend as the low center deepens east of the area in
the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --There is light precipitation across much of the area early this
evening, much of it in the form of plain light rain. However,
there are some localized spots where there is some freezing
rain. These localized spots have surface temperatures at or just
below freezing. Much of the area though remains above freezing.
The low level atmospheric profiles as diagnosed from model
BUFKIT soundings depict a warmer layer between 800 and 900mb
that is a little above freezing. Another component to this light
freezing rain potential is the lack of ice nuclei with drier
air in the -10 to -30 degree C layer both shown in BUFKIT
soundings and in the 00Z OKX upper air sounding. With the
coverage of any freezing rain being relatively small and
confined to Orange County NY, have a SPS for the potential for
icy spots that is in effect until midnight.

The upper low/trough will move across the area and
precipitation should fill back in with a moistening vertical
profile later tonight. Expect the snow growth region (-10 to
-20C) to moisten and rain to transition to snow later this
evening and through overnight with even a rain/snow mix getting
down to the coast during the early morning hours. However,
temperatures are forecast to generally be above freezing through
the night with the possible exception of higher elevations
across inland areas.

Precipitation will generally be light, so any accumulations
should be minor. Liquid equivalent overnight into Monday will be
about a 0.25". Also interesting to note, as surface low
pressure passes to the south and east, gusty NE winds will
become more northerly through the night. For Long Island, this
will be off the Long Island Sound. Multiple high res models are
picking on a west to east enhancement in the precipitation
across Long Island. This is due to a moist upslope component
which has been noted in past events. It doesn`t take much
elevation to help squeeze out a bit more. This may be enough to
provide a coating of snow across this area.

Precipitation (rain/snow) will linger across CT and LI to start
the day exiting far eastern areas in the afternoon. Expect a
small diurnal range in temperatures with highs topping out in
the upper 30s to around 40. Gusty north winds will continue
overnight, especially along the coast, gradually diminishing
Monday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in from the west Monday night with
diminishing north winds and some clearing. Lows will generally
drop into the 20s, but around 30 for the NYC metro. This is
closer to normal.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Main Points

* Much of the forecast period remains dry.

* Daytime temperatures generally below normal Tuesday, above normal
Thursday and Friday, otherwise near normal.

* Rain and snow showers probable Thursday night into Friday,
moisture limited though so amounts should stay light.

For Tuesday, high pressure continues to build in from the
north. Model 850mb temperatures near a range of -5 to -8 degrees
C for the local area. Dry conditions with below normal
temperatures expected.

For Tuesday night, high pressure still present. The center of the
high makes its way farther south along coastal New England. Dry
conditions and cold temperatures expected.

For Wednesday through Wednesday night, high pressure weakens over
the local area. The local area stays dry. A low moves well south of
the region, tracking from near Tennessee Valley to off the coast
of the Carolinas by early Wednesday. On Wednesday night, this
low moves eastward farther out into the Atlantic. The airmass
moderates over the local area as winds become weaker.
Temperatures trend warmer compared to previous day.

For Thursday, the pressure field will be weak. A frontal system will
be approaching from the north and west, getting closer to the
region Thursday night. Possible rain and snow showers forecast
Thursday night. The center of the low associated with this
frontal system by early Friday is shown by forecast models to be
in SE Canada and northern New England.

The associated cold front moves in late Thursday night into early
Friday. Precipitation chances increase for the rain and snow showers
late Thursday night into early Friday. Forecast increased over NBM
POPs after surveying the local area probabilities of last 2 runs of
GEFS and ECMWF ensembles for at least 0.01 inch precipitation,
which were both much higher than NBM. With magnitude of low not
too strong, the precipitation should be mostly light.

The low and cold front move well east of the area Friday afternoon
into Friday night. The low center is forecast to deepen east of the
area.

The low continues to deepen and it travels more northward going into
next weekend. The region will be in between this low and high
pressure building southward from Eastern Canada. This high pressure
area will stay west of the region.

Slight chances for rain and snow showers Friday afternoon and then
just a slight chance of snow showers for extreme eastern
sections Friday night. Mainly dry conditions expected for next
weekend. Temperatures do trend colder going into next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in a departing storm through Monday.

IFR improves to MVFR probably somewhere during the morning push,
then VFR Monday afternoon. Rain and drizzle transition to a
rain/snow mix late tonight, but mostly snow at KSWF.

N winds around 15kt gusting 20-25kt for the most part through the
night, backing slightly Monday morning. Winds then veer more
northerly by the end of Monday afternoon with gusts subsiding.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Tempo MVFR possible tonight. Improvement to prevailing MVFR and VFR
may be off by a few hours. Timing of snow mixing in may be off by an
hour or two, and it`s possible precip type is all snow after around
09-10z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR to start, becoming MVFR late. N gusts around 20kt
possible early.

Tuesday: MVFR in the morning, then VFR.

Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night and Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower cond in rain/snow
showers, mainly late night into the morning hours.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --After looking at model sounding BUFKIT profiles, noting the
models have eastern ocean gusting higher late this evening into
the overnight. Observations have shown gusts more in the 20-30
kt range thus far this evening. For ocean zone Sandy Hook NJ to
Fire Island Inlet NY, cancelled the gale warning and replaced
with SCA that is in effect through Monday night. For the ocean
zone Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY, extended the
gale warning until 2AM EST Monday. The Moriches Inlet NY to
Montauk Point NY ocean has their gale warning remaining in
effect until 6AM EST Monday.

SCAs will then replace the expiring gales. Elsewhere, SCA
conditions will continue into Monday afternoon. Seas on the
ocean will likely stay above 5 ft through Monday night. High
pressure begins to build in from the west Monday night.

Lingering SCA seas on the ocean Tuesday into Tuesday night with
otherwise below SCA conditions across the forecast waters.

Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on the forecast
waters Wednesday through Friday night. However, wind gusts do
increase to near 20 kt Thursday through Friday night. Especially
behind the cold front Friday into Friday night, the gusts could
trend higher in subsequent forecast, thereby increasing the chances
for SCA level wind gusts.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected for the upcoming week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Still no plans to issue coastal flood headlines as water levels are
likely to remain below flood thresholds. May have to watch the late
Monday night or Tuesday morning high tide cycles for water levels
just touching minor benchmarks along the western Sound and in the
southern Nassau back bays.

Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal
flooding.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Monday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG