000
FXUS61 KOKX 290601
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
101 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure tracks to the south and east of the area
through Monday. High pressure will then build in from the north
Tuesday through Wednesday. A low pressure system approaches
Thursday, sending a cold front through the area on Friday.
Strong high pressure from Eastern Canada stays west of the area
for next weekend as the low center deepens east of the area in
the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For this update the main adjustment was to tweak weather through
the next few hours as drizzle and a light wintry mix should
give way to more of a pure light rain/snow mix with a few
pockets of ice pellets along any sub-regional transition
pockets.
Very spotty surface temps at or barely below freezing for the
northernmost suburbs did prompt a special weather statement as
freezing light rain and freezing drizzle remains possible for
the next couple of hours, but figuring to lower the SPS when
expiration time arrives as any pockets of sub 32 degrees will be
minimal through daybreak. Mid levels moisten back up late in
the overnight, and with a colder thermal profile aloft, snow
with some sleet possible across the interior, and even a
rain/snow mix getting down to the coast during the early morning
hours. However, temperatures are forecast to generally be above
freezing through the night with the possible exception of
higher elevations across inland areas.
Precipitation will generally be light, so any accumulations
should be minor. Liquid equivalent overnight into Monday will be
about 0.15 to 0.25 ". Also interesting to note, as surface low
pressure passes to the south and east, the winds have become
more northerly. For Long Island, this will be off the Long
Island Sound. Multiple high res models are picking on a west to
east enhancement in the precipitation across Long Island. This
is due to a moist upslope component which has been noted in past
events. It doesn`t take much elevation to help squeeze out a
bit more. This may be enough to provide a light coating of snow
across this area.
The main change for this latest update was to lower PoPs at a
faster pace for Monday morning through the early afternoon from
west to east. Precipitation (rain/snow) will linger across CT
and LI to start the day exiting far eastern areas by the
afternoon for the most part. Expect a small diurnal range in
temperatures with highs topping out in the upper 30s to around
40. Gusty north winds will continue overnight, especially along
the coast, gradually diminishing Monday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
High pressure builds in from the west Monday night with
diminishing north winds and some clearing. Lows will generally
drop into the 20s, but around 30 for the NYC metro. This is
closer to normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Points
* Much of the forecast period remains dry.
* Daytime temperatures generally below normal Tuesday, above normal
Thursday and Friday, otherwise near normal.
* Rain and snow showers probable Thursday night into Friday,
moisture limited though so amounts should stay light.
For Tuesday, high pressure continues to build in from the
north. Model 850mb temperatures near a range of -5 to -8 degrees
C for the local area. Dry conditions with below normal
temperatures expected.
For Tuesday night, high pressure still present. The center of the
high makes its way farther south along coastal New England. Dry
conditions and cold temperatures expected.
For Wednesday through Wednesday night, high pressure weakens over
the local area. The local area stays dry. A low moves well south of
the region, tracking from near Tennessee Valley to off the coast
of the Carolinas by early Wednesday. On Wednesday night, this
low moves eastward farther out into the Atlantic. The airmass
moderates over the local area as winds become weaker.
Temperatures trend warmer compared to previous day.
For Thursday, the pressure field will be weak. A frontal system will
be approaching from the north and west, getting closer to the
region Thursday night. Possible rain and snow showers forecast
Thursday night. The center of the low associated with this
frontal system by early Friday is shown by forecast models to be
in SE Canada and northern New England.
The associated cold front moves in late Thursday night into early
Friday. Precipitation chances increase for the rain and snow showers
late Thursday night into early Friday. Forecast increased over NBM
POPs after surveying the local area probabilities of last 2 runs of
GEFS and ECMWF ensembles for at least 0.01 inch precipitation,
which were both much higher than NBM. With magnitude of low not
too strong, the precipitation should be mostly light.
The low and cold front move well east of the area Friday afternoon
into Friday night. The low center is forecast to deepen east of the
area.
The low continues to deepen and it travels more northward going into
next weekend. The region will be in between this low and high
pressure building southward from Eastern Canada. This high pressure
area will stay west of the region.
Slight chances for rain and snow showers Friday afternoon and then
just a slight chance of snow showers for extreme eastern
sections Friday night. Mainly dry conditions expected for next
weekend. Temperatures do trend colder going into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure departs today with this high pressure gradually
builds in its wake tonight into Tuesday.
IFR in RADZ, mixing with SN from N to S after 06 to 09z with any
heavier precip. improving to MVFR during the morning push. VFR
cig 035-045 likely Monday aft/eve, with TEMPO MVFR possible.
MVFR cigs likely return late tonight.
N winds around 15G20-25kt thru the afternoon, subsiding during
eve push.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Improvement to prevailing MVFR and VFR may be off by a few
hours. Timing of snow mixing in may be off by an hour or two,
and it`s possible precip type is briefly all wet snow btwn 08
and 11z, before ending.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Tonight: MVFR cigs likely. N winds around 10 kt.
Tuesday: MVFR in the morning, then VFR.
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday night and Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower cond in rain/snow
showers, mainly late night into the morning hours.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
After looking at model sounding BUFKIT profiles, noting the
models have eastern ocean gusting higher for the overnight.
Observations have shown gusts more in the 20-30 kt earlier
during the evening. For ocean zone Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island
Inlet NY, cancelled the gale warning and replaced with SCA that
is in effect through Monday night. For the ocean zone Fire
Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY, extended the gale warning
until 2AM EST Monday. The Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY
ocean has their gale warning remaining in effect until 6AM EST
Monday.
SCAs will then replace the expiring gales. Elsewhere, SCA
conditions will continue into Monday afternoon. Seas on the
ocean will likely stay above 5 ft through Monday night. High
pressure begins to build in from the west Monday night.
Lingering SCA seas on the ocean Tuesday into Tuesday night with
otherwise below SCA conditions across the forecast waters.
Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on the forecast
waters Wednesday through Friday night. However, wind gusts do
increase to near 20 kt Thursday through Friday night. Especially
behind the cold front Friday into Friday night, the gusts could
trend higher in subsequent forecast, thereby increasing the chances
for SCA level wind gusts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected for the upcoming week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Still no plans to issue coastal flood headlines as water levels are
likely to remain below flood thresholds. May have to watch the late
Monday night or Tuesday morning high tide cycles for water levels
just touching minor benchmarks along the western Sound and in the
southern Nassau back bays.
Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal
flooding.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EST early this morning for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/JM
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC/NV
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...