000
FXUS61 KOKX 291105
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
605 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure pulls further off the New England coast today, followed
by a cold front coming down from the north and passing through
tonight. High pressure builds from the north into Tuesday. Weak high
pressure centers east and south of the region Wed and Thu. A cold
front approaches Thu night and passes through on Friday. Low
pressure develops offshore and tracks towards the Canadian
maritimes Friday night into the weekend, as Canadian high pressure
anchors to the west of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No meaningful adjustments or changes with this update as the
forecast remains on track. Temperatures remain primarily above
freezing, with plenty of middle 30s and thus any wintry precip
has difficulty in not melting in lowest 1 kft and in contact
with the surface.
Low pressure east of Cape Cod will continue to push away today. PoPs
have been lowered from previous thinking and starting the day off
with chance to slight chance PoPs with primarily a light rain/snow
mix chance, with some places further north being mainly in the form
of light snow. This chance may linger into the first half of the
afternoon for far eastern sections of LI and CT. With temperatures
remaining primarily above freezing this morning not expecting any
issues with any light frozen / winter precip. Clouds will hang
around today with low level moisture remaining trapped underneath a
weak inversion in the lower part of the column despite a drier
northerly flow on the back side of departing low pressure. High
pressure resides back over the Tennessee Valley. The pressure
gradient between the two will lead to a persistent north wind today,
with gusts of 25 mph or thereabouts through the first half of the
afternoon. Later in the day as the low gets further away the
pressure gradient will begin to relax with the winds diminishing
into this evening. Temperatures will run closer to average for this
time of year with temperatures topping out in the middle 30s well
north to around 40, or in the lower 40s for the city and southern
coastal sections. The wind however will make it feel about 10
degrees colder.
For tonight the northerly flow continues and veers a bit more to the
northeast. This brings in seasonably cold air out of Eastern Canada.
The winds should stay up enough, and along with some clouds
lingering with a weak inversion down low, any radiational cooling
should be minimized. Look for temperatures to get to seasonable
levels with lows mainly in the 20s, and closer to 30 in the more
urban locations. When the wind blows it could feel as cold as the
upper teens at times across northern sections. A frontal boundary
moves through from the north, but it will not have any sensible wx
with it.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure building and settling in from the north look for
dry conditions. The flow around the high will begin to result in a
light east-northeast flow. With the weak inversion remaining in the
lower half of the column look for clouds at 5 kft, and also with a
shortwave starting to drop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for
the afternoon and evening high clouds start to spill into the area.
With a seasonably cold air mass firmly in place and some clouds look
for temperatures to not get out of the 30s on Tuesday. More sun will
be seen across northeastern sections, in closer proximity to high
pressure.
For Tuesday night expect more in the way of clouds as mid and upper
level moisture get into the area in response to a potent shortwave
and some PVA. With enough of the column remaining relatively dry no
precip is expected. With more in the way of clouds, temperatures
will not fall much. Lows will range from the lower 20s across far
northeastern areas, to the lower 30s across southwestern portions of
the area where more cloud cover is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models in good agreement with a vigorous PAC shortwave rounding
western ridging early this week, amplifying and cutting off as it
dives southeast through Great Lakes Tuesday and then digging down
into the southeast US Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Associated weak
troughing slides across and east of the region Wed, with shortwave
ridging on Thu. This will be followed by a polar shortwave diving
into the NE US Friday and then closing just east of New England into
Canadian maritimes for the weekend.
At the surface, weak high pressure should keep dry conditions across
the region Wed and Thu, as clipper system tracks well SE and S of
the areas. Orientation of high pressure will maintain an onshore
flow across the region with considerable cloudiness likely with
moisture trapped under subsidence inversion. Temps moderate from
seasonable to above seasonable Wed into Thu NIght ahead of front.
Polar front approaches the region Thu Night, likely crossing Fri Am,
with low pressure developing to the east of New England Friday
Night. Fairly good model signal for light precip development with
this front, so would expect pops to trend upward for this time
period. Thermal profile ahead of the front Thu Night/Fri AM are
indicative of rain for most of the region, with potential for a
changeover to scattered snow showers in wake of front Fri aft into
Fri eve from NW to SE with cold advection and as trough axis moves
through.
Prolonged CAA likely Friday night thru the weekend as offshore low
pressure intensifies and tracks towards the Canadian Maritimes.
Cloud cover and potential for snow flurries will be be dependent on
western extent of cyclonic flow. Temps likely a few degrees below
seasonable for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure departs offshore today with high pressure gradually
building in its wake tonight into Tuesday.
MVFR/IFR with SN mixing in w/ -RADZ or changing completely to -SN
for eastern terminals w/ heavier precip rotating thru around 12z.
Conds improving to MVFR through the morning push. VFR cig 035-045
likely this aft/eve. Widespread MVFR cigs likely return late tonight.
N winds around 15G20-25kt thru the afternoon, subsiding during
eve push.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR/IFR for morning push. -RADZ may changeover to all wet snow,
before ending by 12z. Improvement to prevailing MVFR and VFR today
may be off by a few hours. N gusts to 25 kt for morning push,
subsiding through eve push.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Tonight: MVFR cigs likely. N winds around 10 kt.
Tuesday: MVFR in the morning, then VFR.
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday night and Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower cond in rain/snow
showers, mainly late night into the morning hours.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A north wind will maintain small craft conditions across all waters
through a portion of this afternoon. Towards late in the afternoon
the large majority of the near shore waters will fall below small
craft criteria as the winds start to diminish. However, small craft
conditions will continue for the far eastern portions of LI Sound
until 6 pm with 25 kt gusts likely lingering out east. With a
10 sec easterly swell rough seas will persist with small craft
conditions continuing on the ocean waters for a good portion of
Tuesday in all likelihood. Seas may actually get below 5 ft for
a bit later Tuesday, especially for the far western portion of
the ocean, but with the long period swell continuing seas
should remain rough, thus will keep the small craft up through
the day Tuesday. Seas should then average closer to 4 ft with
long period easterly swells continuing through Tue night.
Sub-SCA conds Wed with a weak pressure gradient. Marginal SCA
gusts possible on the ocean Thu/Thu night into Fri ahead of and
behind a cold front. More widespread SCA potential in the wake
of cold front Fri night into the weekend as an offshore low
deepens and caa strengthens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected this week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Potential for localized minor coastal flooding with tonight and/or
Tue morning high tide cycles along the western Sound and in the
southern Nassau bays.
Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal
flooding.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/NV
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...