000
FXUS61 KOKX 292056
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front pushes through tonight with high pressure building in
behind it to the north on Tuesday. High pressure weakens over the
local region Wednesday through Wednesday night. A cold front
approaches from the north and west Thursday. This front moves in
Thursday night into early Friday. High pressure then builds in
from SE Canada thereafter through early Saturday. The center of
the high pressure area remains in Southeast Canada for the
weekend as low pressure strengthens in the Canadian Maritimes.
High pressure builds more into the area going into early next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A strong mesoscale band of rain and snow has set up across Rhode
Island and eastern Massachusetts which is slowly tracking west.
Something worth watching if it holds together. a few far weaker
bands to the west of this band are currently seen as very low
reflectivities on our radar on eastern Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut. Currently only seeing sprinkles on webcams in
Southampton with this. Slight POPs have been extended through 7pm in
these areas for the chance of seeing additional weak bands of
precipitation. Not much accumulation is expected with them, if any.
The chance for these maintaining themselves will continue to
decrease as a low continues to exit to our northeast.

A low, currently situated just east of Nova Scotia, will continue to
exit eastward tonight. With this system to our northeast and high
pressure to our southwest, the resulting pressure gradient has lead
to gusty winds. These will continue to weaken through the evening
and early night tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes. Clouds
will break up tonight, but still remain partly cloudy, limiting
radiational cooling. Behind the exiting low, a cold front tonight
will help colder temperatures establish themselves in the area. Lows
will be in the mid/low-20s, with upper-20s to low-30s for urban
metro areas closer to NYC.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will build to our north through the day on Tuesday
keeping us dry. Cloud cover may remain on the high side Tuesday and
Tuesday night and the low will have more easterly component than
northerly due to the placement of high pressure to our north and as
a nearby shortwave in the Great Lakes moves towards the Tennessee
Valley, spilling some higher clouds our way. This shortwave will be
too far away to bring any precipitation Tuesday evening or night.

With a seasonably cold air mass firmly in place and some clouds,
look for temperatures to remain the 30s on Tuesday. More sun will be
seen across northeastern sections, in closer proximity to high
pressure in the morning and early afternoon before high clouds spill
in from the west in the late afternoon and evening.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Overall, not too much precipitation in the long term as two low
pressure system pass well south of the region. Temperatures exhibit
no significant departures from normal for most days. Thursday and
Thursday night feature temperatures that are close to 10 degrees
above seasonal normal values for this time of year with more
west to southwest flow.

The overall mid and upper level pattern shown amongst the numerical
weather prediction models convey a series of lesser amplitude
troughs traversing the region. The upper jet streaks stay well
south of the area and the Pacific jet into Southern US appears
much stronger going through this week. This is leading to a less
active synoptic pattern in the local area.

The precipitation in the long term period appears to be confined to
Thursday night through Friday time window, when a cold front
traverses the region. Rain and snow showers will be possible but
will stay light. Ensembles depict much less probability for a
tenth of an inch or more of precipitation compared to a
hundredths of an inch or more of precipitation. Overall,
precipitation looks likely to remain below a tenth of an inch.

Teleconnections with AO and NAO depict from GEFS declines in early
February but NAO appears to be getting near neutral.

850mb temperatures from the numerical weather prediction models
stay above -10 degrees C but may get near that value late
Sunday night and Monday according to some models. There will be
some colder air advecting in next weekend as the region stays
between low pressure in Canadian Maritimes and high pressure in
SE Canada.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A backdoor cold front moves across the terminals tonight,
followed by high pressure on Tuesday.

Other than some light precipitation this evening well east of NYC, a
dry forecast is expected through the TAF period.

Cigs have been stubborn to improve, and most of the TAF sites
remain MVFR. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR for a
period late this afternoon/evening, but should fall back down to
MVFR overnight and continue through the Tuesday morning push.
Conditions are expected to improve back to VFR Tuesday morning
morning/early afternoon. The timing of flight category changes
may be off by an hour or two, and amendments will be possible
through the TAF period to account for this.

N winds around 15G20-25kt thru the afternoon, subsiding during
eve push. N winds less than 10 kt veering to NE towards Tue AM
push. The winds veer further to the east then southeast Tuesday
mid morning through afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible through the TAF period for changing flight
categories. Gusts this afternoon/evening may be occasional.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. E/NE winds.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night and Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions in
rain or a rain/snow shower mix

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds are beginning to diminish. The LI Sound is no longer under a
SCA and the Sound entrance will be dropped from it at 6pm due to
weakening north winds. Ocean waters will remain under a SCA through
tonight into the day Tuesday due to higher seas at 5-6 feet. Waves
will drop below 5 feet Tuesday night.

Pressure gradient remains relatively relaxed enough to keep
conditions below SCA thresholds on the forecast waters Wednesday
through Friday. The pressure gradient tightens behind a cold
front Friday night and into the weekend as associated low
pressure strengthens in the Canadian Maritimes. SCA wind gusts
are forecast to develop on the ocean and South Shore Bays with
possible SCA wind gusts on other forecast waters as well. Seas
are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds but could trend
higher into low end SCA levels for the weekend on the ocean in
subsequent forecasts.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected this week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Potential for localized minor coastal flooding with tonight and/or
Tue morning high tide cycles along the western Sound and in the
southern Nassau bays.

Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal
flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...