000
FXUS61 KOKX 300005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
705 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes through tonight with high pressure building in
behind it to the north on Tuesday. High pressure weakens over the
local region Wednesday through Wednesday night. A cold front
approaches from the north and west Thursday. This front moves in
Thursday night into early Friday. High pressure then builds in
from SE Canada thereafter through early Saturday. The center of
the high pressure area remains in Southeast Canada for the
weekend as low pressure strengthens in the Canadian Maritimes.
High pressure builds more into the area going into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Southeast Connecticut and Eastern Long Island will have
scattered flurries this evening. Very weak reflectivities near
or less than 15 dBZ depict their occurrence on local OKX Doppler
radar imagery. Expecting the occurrence of these flurries to
decrease late this evening and to diminish overnight as drier
air advects into the region. Otherwise, forecast overall remains
on track without much difference between forecast and observed
temperatures and dewpoints thus far this evening.

A low, currently situated just east of Nova Scotia, will continue to
exit eastward tonight. With this system to our northeast and high
pressure to our southwest, the resulting pressure gradient has lead
to gusty winds. These will continue to weaken through the evening
and early night tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes. Clouds
will break up tonight, but still remain partly cloudy, limiting
radiational cooling. Behind the exiting low, a cold front tonight
will help colder temperatures establish themselves in the area. Lows
will be in the mid/low-20s, with upper-20s to low-30s for urban
metro areas closer to NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build to our north through the day on Tuesday
keeping us dry. Cloud cover may remain on the high side Tuesday and
Tuesday night and the low will have more easterly component than
northerly due to the placement of high pressure to our north and as
a nearby shortwave in the Great Lakes moves towards the Tennessee
Valley, spilling some higher clouds our way. This shortwave will be
too far away to bring any precipitation Tuesday evening or night.

With a seasonably cold air mass firmly in place and some clouds,
look for temperatures to remain the 30s on Tuesday. More sun will be
seen across northeastern sections, in closer proximity to high
pressure in the morning and early afternoon before high clouds spill
in from the west in the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure weakens across the local area Wednesday into
Wednesday night. A cold front approaches Thursday from the north
and west and moves through Thursday night into early Friday. The
low associated with this cold front strengthens and eventually
moves into the Canadian Maritimes this weekend with the center
of high pressure staying in Southeast Canada. The high pressure
area builds more into the local region going into early next
week.

Overall, not too much precipitation in the long term as two low
pressure systems pass well south of the region. One passes off
the coast of the Carolinas Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Another low passes well south of the region early next week.

Temperatures exhibit no significant departures from normal for
most days. Thursday and Thursday night feature temperatures that
are close to 10 degrees above seasonal normal values for this
time of year with more west to southwest flow.

The overall mid and upper level pattern shown amongst the numerical
weather prediction models convey a series of lesser amplitude
troughs traversing the region during the long term. The upper
jet streaks stay well south of the area and the Pacific jet into
Southern US appears much stronger going through this week. There
is a less active synoptic pattern in the local area.

The precipitation in the long term period appears to be confined to
Thursday night through Friday time window, when a cold front
traverses the region. Rain and snow showers will be possible but
will stay light. Ensembles depict much less probability for a
tenth of an inch or more of precipitation compared to a
hundredth of an inch or more of precipitation. Overall,
precipitation looks likely to remain below a tenth of an inch.

Teleconnections with AO and NAO depict from GEFS declines in early
February but NAO appears to be getting near neutral.

850mb temperatures from the numerical weather prediction models
stay above -10 degrees C during the long term but may get near
that value late Sunday night and Monday according to some
models.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A backdoor cold front moves across the terminals tonight,
followed by high pressure on Tuesday.

Other than some flurries this evening east of NYC, a dry
forecast is expected through the TAF period. Cigs mostly
2500-3500 ft for the next 24-30 hours.

N winds around 10 kt or less veering to NE towards the Tue AM
push. The winds veer farther to the east later in the morning,
then southeast Tuesday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR/VFR fluctuations could be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR/MVFR.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night and Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions in
rain or a rain/snow shower mix

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Winds continue to diminish. Below SCA conditions are present
across the non-ocean waters. Ocean waters will remain under a
SCA through tonight into the day Tuesday due to higher seas at
5-6 feet. Waves will drop below 5 feet Tuesday night.

Pressure gradient remains relatively relaxed enough to keep
conditions below SCA thresholds on the forecast waters Wednesday
through Friday. The pressure gradient tightens behind a cold
front Friday night and into the weekend as associated low
pressure strengthens in the Canadian Maritimes. SCA wind gusts
are forecast to develop on the ocean and South Shore Bays with
possible SCA wind gusts on other forecast waters as well. Seas
are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds but could trend
higher into low end SCA levels for the weekend on the ocean in
subsequent forecasts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected this week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Potential for localized minor coastal flooding with tonight and/or
Tue morning high tide cycles along the western Sound and in the
southern Nassau bays.

Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal flooding.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...JM/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...