discussion on 2024-01-30

000
FXUS61 KOKX 301454
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
954 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds down the New England coast while an
upper level disturbance approaches tonight into Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, low pressure pushes off the Lower Mid Atlantic and SE
coast Wednesday night. A cold front approaches from the north and
west Thursday, moving through late Thursday night into Friday
morning. High pressure then gradually builds in from SE Canada
thru the weekend as low pressure strengthens in the Canadian
Maritimes. High pressure builds more into the area going into
early next week.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast remains on track this morning.

Broad cyclonic flow and an inversion around 5kft will keep
persistent cloud cover across the region. With high pressure
attempting to build down from the north it should be dry much of
the time. A shallow layer of moisture from 2 to 5 kt could very
well produce a few flurries / light snow showers. PoPs were
kept minimal for today, but based on what has transpired over
the previous 12 hours and the profile not changing thought it
prudent to have mention of very light precip, although it will
be tough to achieve measurable with the lack of overall lift.
Temperatures will be at seasonably cold levels with day time
maxes in the middle and upper 30s for the most part.

A shortwave will approach tonight into Wed morning from the WSW.
This will add a bit more in terms of lift later at night with
western areas closer to any additional lift provided by the
shortwave. Thus have far western zones in NJ in slight chance
PoPs. As far as p-type, looks to be mainly in the form of very
light snow / flurries. It will be relatively drier in the mid
levels, thus some drizzle and freezing drizzle cannot be
completely ruled out. With an easterly flow off the ocean the
condensation nuclei provided from the ocean could very well be
enough to preclude any freezing drizzle where temps are around
or below freezing and thus you would have ice crystals and
instead flurries and very light spotty snow. Probabilistic
weather type umbrella only points to about a 10 percent chance
of freezing drizzle so for now have kept it out of the forecast,
but this will have to be monitored for when new data comes in
for the next forecast cycle. With cloud cover in place and the
light onshore flow continuing, temps won`t move a lot. Lows
should be mainly in the lower and middle 30s and likely just
above freezing in and around NYC, with mainly upper 20s and
lower 30s elsewhere. With high pressure attempting to nose down
the New England coast the clouds may thin out enough that some
spots across northeast CT zones may be able to get a bit colder
through the 20s for tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --On Wednesday with the shortwave getting into the western portion of
the area the best chance of spotty light precip will be in the
morning and across the western half of the area, otherwise look for
another mainly cloudy day. A light dusting of snow on mainly grassy
surfaces in possible across far western zones. The best chance for
filtered sunshine, or breaks of sunshine will be across eastern
zones. Temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer with highs
mainly in the upper 30s to 40 with a light E to SE flow.

Clouds could very well linger into Wed night as the inversion below
5 kft is suggested in BUFKIT soundings. Radiational influences
will be minimized once again with night time temps, with night
time minimums once again mainly in the upper 20s to middle 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models in good agreement with shortwave upper ridging sliding east
on Thu. This will be followed by one northern stream shortwave
sliding through northern New England on Thu, with a second digging
farther south into the NE US Thu Night-Friday, before closing off
across the Canadian maritimes for the weekend. The trend over the
last 24 hrs is for the closed low to develop a bit farther NE of
the region. Associated NE troughing will persists through Monday.

At the surface, weak high pressure should keep dry conditions across
the region Thu, with moderating temps (5 to 10 degrees above
seasonable) as SW flow develops ahead of clipper system tracking E
through SE Canada/northern New England. associated cold front
approaches the region Thu Night, likely crossing Fri Am. Fairly good
model signal for light precip development with this front Thu Night,
so would expect pops to trend upward for this time period. Thermal
profile ahead of the front Thu Night/Fri AM are indicative of rain
for most of the region (perhaps cold enough for rain/snow mix across
NW interior). Potential for a changeover to scattered snow
showers/flurries in wake of front Fri aft/eve in cyclonic flow.

CAA likely Friday night thru Sat Night as early mentioned low
pressure intensifies over the Canadian Maritimes. With low pressure
intensification trending a bit farther NE of the region, temps have
trended a bit warmer than 24 hrs ago, as coldest air remains farther
north and east. This trend would also decreases the cyclonic flow
over the region, reducing cloud cover and potential for snow
flurries Fri Night/Sat.

Canadian high gradually builds to the west of the region through the
weekend, retrograding westward early next week. Temps near
to slightly below seasonable for the weekend.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure slowly remains in control through the TAF period.

Cigs varying btwn 2500-3500ft through Wed AM. Potential for
scattered light snow/rain showers for western terminals
developing this afternoon, more likely tonight into Wed Am.

NE/E winds less than 10 kt veering to the ESE into this
afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed to refine MVFR/VFR cig fluctuations
through Wed AM push, with higher likelihood for cigs to average
MVFR than VFR. Potential for a few light snow/rain showers for
aft/eve push.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: MVFR likely for western terminals with potential for
light -SHSNRA, MVFR/VFR for eastern terminals. Gradual drying
and improvement in the afternoon. E/SE winds less than 10 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. SW winds.

Thursday Night and Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions
in rain, possibly mixing with SN Fri at KSWF. SW winds Thu
Night shifting NW Fri.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
A long period E and S swell will make ocean seas rough through mid
week. Small craft advisories will be allowed to continue for all
ocean zones through today, although the western ocean will be below
5 ft at times, but with the swell making seas rough will keep the
small craft up through the day. Seas afterwards should average
closer to 4 ft with long period easterly swells continuing through
tonight. Ocean seas may momentarily drop to an average closer to 3
ft late Wed and Wed night.

Marginal SCA gusts possible on the ocean Thu/Thu night into Fri
ahead of and behind a cold front. More widespread SCA potential in
the wake of cold front Fri night into the weekend as an offshore low
deepens and caa strengthens.

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the entire forecast
period.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Localized minor coastal flooding with this morning/early afternoon
high tide cycles along the southern Nassau bays as light northerly
winds veer to E/SE.

Generally 2 1/2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal flooding.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.

SYNOPSIS...JE/NV
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV/DW
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...