discussion on 2024-01-30

000
FXUS61 KOKX 301850
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds down the New England coast while an
upper level disturbance approaches tonight into Wednesday morning.
High pressure then returns later Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A cold front approaches from the north and west Thursday, moving
through late Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure
then gradually builds in from SE Canada thru the weekend as low
pressure strengthens in the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure
builds more into the area going into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track into the afternoon.

Moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion around 4-5kft
will continue to bring mostly cloudy to overcast conditions into
this evening. Still seeing some light returns on radar along the
SE coast of LI and just offshore. The flow is beginning to turn
around more towards the E and will continue to shift SE through
the rest of the day. This activity should remain just offshore,
but a brief light snow flurry cannot be ruled out on LI.
Temperatures will be at seasonably cold levels with maxes in
the middle and upper 30s for the most part.

A shortwave approaches tonight into Wed morning from the WSW.
This will add a bit more in terms of lift later at night with
western areas closer to any additional lift provided by the
shortwave. NE NJ continues to have PoPs in the slight chance
category. As far as p-type, looks to be mainly in the form of
very light snow / flurries. It will be relatively drier in the
mid levels, thus some drizzle and freezing drizzle cannot be
completely ruled out. With an easterly flow off the ocean the
condensation nuclei provided from the ocean could very well be
enough to preclude any freezing drizzle where temps are around
or below freezing and thus you would have ice crystals and
instead flurries and very light spotty snow. Probabilistic
weather type umbrella only points to about a 10 percent chance
of freezing drizzle so for now have kept it out of the forecast,
but this will have to be monitored for when new data comes in
for the next forecast cycle. With cloud cover in place and the
light onshore flow continuing, temps won`t move a lot. Lows
should be mainly in the lower and middle 30s and likely just
above freezing in and around NYC, with mainly upper 20s and
lower 30s elsewhere. With high pressure attempting to nose down
the New England coast the clouds may thin out enough that some
spots across northeast CT zones may be able to get a bit colder
through the 20s for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday with the shortwave getting into the western portion of
the area the best chance of spotty light precip will be in the
morning and across the western half of the area, otherwise look for
another mainly cloudy day. A light dusting of snow on mainly grassy
surfaces in possible across far western zones. The best chance for
filtered sunshine, or breaks of sunshine will be across eastern
zones. Temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer with highs
mainly in the upper 30s to 40 with a light E to SE flow.

Clouds could very well linger into Wed night as the inversion below
5 kft is suggested in BUFKIT soundings. Radiational influences
will be minimized once again with night time temps, with night
time minimums once again mainly in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models in good agreement with shortwave upper ridging sliding east
on Thu. This will be followed by one northern stream shortwave
sliding through northern New England on Thu, with a second digging
farther south into the NE US Thu Night-Friday, before closing off
across the Canadian maritimes for the weekend. The trend over the
last 24 hrs is for the closed low to develop a bit farther NE of
the region. Associated NE troughing will persists through Monday.

At the surface, weak high pressure should keep dry conditions across
the region Thu, with moderating temps (5 to 10 degrees above
seasonable) as SW flow develops ahead of clipper system tracking E
through SE Canada/northern New England. associated cold front
approaches the region Thu Night, likely crossing Fri Am. Fairly good
model signal for light precip development with this front Thu Night,
so would expect pops to trend upward for this time period. Thermal
profile ahead of the front Thu Night/Fri AM are indicative of rain
for most of the region (perhaps cold enough for rain/snow mix across
NW interior). Potential for a changeover to scattered snow
showers/flurries in wake of front Fri aft/eve in cyclonic flow.

CAA likely Friday night thru Sat Night as early mentioned low
pressure intensifies over the Canadian Maritimes. With low pressure
intensification trending a bit farther NE of the region, temps have
trended a bit warmer than 24 hrs ago, as coldest air remains farther
north and east. This trend would also decreases the cyclonic flow
over the region, reducing cloud cover and potential for snow
flurries Fri Night/Sat.

Canadian high gradually builds to the west of the region through the
weekend, retrograding westward early next week. Temps near
to slightly below seasonable for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure slowly builds down the New England coast while an
upper level disturbance approaches tonight into Wednesday
morning.

Ceilings will generally vary between 3000-3500ft into early
this evening before becoming predominantly MVFR tonight. KGON
is expected to stay VFR through the period. There is also
a chance of IFR tonight in snow showers at KEWR, KTEB, and
KSWF, but confidence is too low at this time to mention in TAFs.
Most sites will then become VFR late Wednesday morning or
afternoon.

Winds will veer to the ESE at less than 10 kt this afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ceiling will likely fluctuate between 3000-3500 ft this
afternoon/early this evening.

Chance of IFR in snow showers tonight, especially
at KTEB and KEWR.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon: VFR or becoming VFR.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt
Thursday afternoon.

Thursday Night and Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions
in rain showers, possibly mixing with SN Fri morning at KSWF.
NNW winds G15-20kt Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A long period E and S swell will make ocean seas rough through mid
week. Small craft advisories will be allowed to continue for all
ocean zones through today, although the western ocean will be below
5 ft at times, but with the swell making seas rough will keep the
small craft up through the day. Seas afterwards should average
closer to 4 ft with long period easterly swells continuing through
tonight. Ocean seas may momentarily drop to an average closer to 3
ft late Wed and Wed night.

Marginal SCA gusts possible on the ocean Thu/Thu night into Fri
ahead of and behind a cold front. More widespread SCA potential in
the wake of cold front Fri night into the weekend as an offshore low
deepens and caa strengthens.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/NV
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV