000
FXUS61 KOKX 311206
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
706 AM EST Wed Jan 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered over Eastern New England through
tonight. A cold front approaches late Thursday before moving through
Thursday night. High pressure then gradually builds in from
Southeastern Canada Friday and remains in control into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The spotty light precip across western sections has trended
down quite a bit from earlier. Have kept PoPs at chance and
slight chance levels through the morning commute, then mainly
below 10 percent for the late morning. Most reporting stations
are a degree or more above freezing, with the exception being
across the northern portion of the CWA in the Hudson Valley.
Thus far mainly flurries and light snow shower activity has been
reported. If any spotty precip in the liquid form takes place
(sprinkles or drizzle) it would most likely not freeze on
contact as most road surfaces are above freezing according to
RWIS data. Thus no SPS or advisories with road and travel
impacts not anticipated for the AM commute.
A shortwave / mid level impulse over the area to start the day will
get to the east this afternoon. After a few very light rain and snow
showers this morning mainly across western most sections, look for
the afternoon to be dry. Another mainly cloudy day is on tap with a
light onshore flow with high pressure pressing down the coastal
plain. If there are to be breaks of sun it will be further to the
east and northeast in closer to proximity to sfc high pressure. With
a seasonable air mass in place temperatures will be close to normal
with mainly upper 30s and perhaps a few lower 40s for daytime max
temperatures.
Clouds will linger tonight as the subsidence inversion remains just
below 5 kft. The winds will be light and variable initially, then a
light SW flow attempts to initiate getting closer to daybreak.
Radiational influences will be minimized once again due to clouds
with night time temps, with night time minimums once again mainly in
the upper 20s to middle 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday clouds for the most part will remain intact. The
difference will be the absence of a light onshore flow, and more of
a return flow out of the WSW. This should get the cloud deck to lift
a bit by late morning, but with the remnants of the subsidence
inversion in place look for another mostly cloudy day. However,
there will likely be more in the way of breaks of sun in some spots.
Towards the afternoon however a mid level cloud deck lowers in
response to the next shortwave / cold front streaking towards the
area out of the northwest, thus breaking out into partial sunshine
will prove difficult once again. Despite the clouds temperatures
should get a bit milder on that WSW flow, with daytime maxes mainly
in the middle and upper 40s, a good 5 to 8 degrees above normal.
For Thursday night the shortwave and cold frontal boundary pivots
through the area. PoPs were kept fairly minimal as this system will
be moisture starved as the boundary comes from a dry source region.
Some rain showers may be associated with the leading edge of the
boundary, and as the boundary gets further east and colder air works
in, there will be the chance of a few snow showers. More so for
northern and inland locations away from the coast as the rear
portion of any precip pushes through towards early Fri AM. The
precip will be light and not expecting any impacts from whatever
precip there is for the Fri AM commute. At this time temps are not
likely to reach freezing towards daybreak except up north where
precip is expected to be further south at that time.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough moves through on Friday as a surface cold
front moves to the south and east of the region. There is very
little lift ahead of and with the cold front, and moisture is
limited to the lower levels. Therefore, went with a dry forecast.
However, there is a very low chance right now that some
precipitation lingers into Friday morning. If this were to be the
case, some rain showers would be expected.
Canadian high pressure then builds in Friday and remains into the
beginning of next week keeping the forecast area dry through then.
Seasonable temperatures can be expected from Saturday onward.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slowly builds down the New England coast while a
disturbance passes south of the region overnight into the
this morning. The high then remains in place into Thursday.
High end MVFR to low end VFR ceilings expected through the TAF
period. Most sites may return to VFR mid to late this afternoon,
but then return to high end MVFR this evening.
There may be brief lowering of visibility across mainly the
western terminals (city terminals and points N and W) as light
snow showers or flurries are still being reported at isolated
terminals.
Light E to ESE flow this morning becomes light and variable
this afternoon (could be as early as late this morning), then
becomes southwesterly this evening, under 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing categories due to uncertainty in
flight rule categories.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt Thursday afternoon.
Thursday Night and Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions in
rain showers, possibly mixing with SN Fri. NNW winds G15-20kt
Friday.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A 9 to 10 second E swell will continue today into tonight. Sub
SCA conditions will be in place with winds on the waters
remaining below SCA levels with a weak pressure gradient in
place. Towards Thursday afternoon the WSW flow begins to
increase out ahead of an approaching frontal system and with
this there should be a period of marginal small craft gusts and
seas for the central and eastern ocean zones. Behind the frontal
system the winds turn more northwesterly late Thursday night.
Then behind the cold front Friday night into early Saturday SCA
gusts will be possible on the ocean waters in a northwest flow.
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels across all the
waters late Saturday through early next week as high pressure
remains in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JP
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/JP
HYDROLOGY...JE/JP